Question about pot odds..

[colos1]

This is a situation I've run into a couple of times and I was wondering what the right move is here. Lets say I am dealt J10 offsuit and the flop comes up Qs 9h 2s. I hvae 8 outs for the nut straight draw, no flush possibility for me, but there is the possibility of there being a flush chaser out there. Do I still calculate pot odds with 8 outs or do I figure out pot odds with 6 outs getting rid of the K & 8 of Spades becuase that will put a flush on board. Sometimes this can mean the difference betweeen calling or folding a hand. How do i play this one? Do I assume there is a flush chaser out there or do I aassume my hand is good if i make my straight

[LetsRock]

I think you have to consider the possibility that your straight could be out drwn by a flush. I usually figure on the full 8 outs. If my straight is filled by a flush card, I just have to be aware that the flush could be out there and not be over aggressive with your hand. Depending on where the betting is coming from, I'll usually bet out or even raise when my straight fills. I'll call down one re-raise and possibly bail if there's a lot of betting by several people. This is where hand reading and table awareness will help you make a good decision.

You can't assume anything, but should consider all reasonable possibilities and react to what the table does.

[Henke]

It's hard to say something general about this case without looking at position, limits, opponents etc. but I will give it a try.

If we just look at pot-odds from the flop to see the turn, that means you're looking at odds of either 6.83:1 or 4.88:1. So in an unraised pot, the problem region is if the pot is contested 4 or 5 handed. Then I would say the approximation of 6 outs is OK in estimating the probability of winning the hand. However you still have some implied odds, so calling a bet here is probably OK given that your opponents will tend to pay you off if you make your hand. If the pot is 3-handed, the hand gains some value because of the semibluffing potential, and you might even win if you pair one of your cards.

If the pot is raised, you're up against fewer opponents, so you wouldn't really have to discount your outs as much. With just 2 opponents, you're getting about 7:1 if you're closing the action and it's only one bet to you. Also, the probability that someone is out against you with the flushdraw isn't that big, so you're probably having a nice overlay in odds.

To sum it up, it's rarely (ever?) correct to fold that str8-draw on the flop for just one bet. However, with position and the right opponents, a bet or raise might become the best move.

[MaxPower]

Just to nitpick, your pot odds don't change. They are the same no matter what is on board. What you are talking about is your drawing odds.

To give yourself 6 outs would be wrong because there is not always going to be a flush draw out. Essentially, you just need to make sure there is a little extra money in the pot to cover the times when you make your hand and still lose. So you need slightly better pot odds than normal.

In some cases you may be able to eliminate the possibilty of a flush draw being out and you don't have to worry about it. Let's say an EP player bets and everyone folds to me on the Button. If I know that EP will never bet a draw, I don't need to make any adjustments.

Whenever you are drawing to a hand, you always have to factor in the chance that you will hit your outs and still lose the pot. Experience will tell you when this is likely to happen and then you should need higher pot odds than normal to draw.

[LetsRock]

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Essentially, you just need to make sure there is a little extra money in the pot to cover the times when you make your hand and still lose. So you need slightly better pot odds than normal.


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I agree with your position, but, for the sake of argument: wouldn't it be pretty simple to "reduce your outs" to 6 for purposes of odds calculation to accomplish your "make sure there is a little extra money in the pot" theory?

There's no way to absolute way to determine how much extra there needs to be to cover those times when you may hit and lose, so I would think that a simple tool (reducing your outs for purposes of odds calcing) would be an effective way to do this.

(As I ststed in my original post, I generally don't do this, but for those who wish to fear the flush, it seems that it would be an effective method.)

[MaxPower]

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There's no way to absolute way to determine how much extra there needs to be to cover those times when you may hit and lose, so I would think that a simple tool (reducing your outs for purposes of odds calcing) would be an effective way to do this.


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The same could be said of reducing your outs. There is no simple way to determine how many outs to discount.

Its fine if you want think about discounting outs, I just think that looking at the size of the pot is better. If the pot is big enough (which it usually is), you don't have to worry about how many outs to discount.

[tripdad]

i usually play at partypoker, and there are rarely any flushes made there, so i would definitely jam it if i made my straight.

cheers!

[Nottom]

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i usually play at partypoker, and there are rarely any flushes made there,

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hahahahahahahahahhahahahahaha

[DanTheCardMan]

I think he means except for the ones that come on those seemingly endless suited flops.

[tripdad]

sorry...i meant to say ROYAL flushes. [img]/images/graemlins/laugh.gif[/img]

cheers!