AQ faces a stop-and-go

coinflip · #1 03-04-2005, 12:10 PM

Villain in this hand is 54/0/0.6 over 40 hands or so.

Party Poker 2/4 Hold'em (9 handed) converter

Preflop: Hero is Button with Q[img]/images/graemlins/club.gif[/img], A[img]/images/graemlins/diamond.gif[/img].
5 folds, CO calls, Hero raises, SB calls, 1 fold, CO calls.

Flop: (7 SB) 7[img]/images/graemlins/club.gif[/img], 5[img]/images/graemlins/spade.gif[/img], 7[img]/images/graemlins/heart.gif[/img] (3 players)
SB checks, CO bets, Hero raises, SB folds, CO calls.

I raise the flop thinking that (a) I might have the best hand and (b) even if I don't, I'm likely to get a free card.

Turn: (5.50 BB) A[img]/images/graemlins/spade.gif[/img] (2 players)
CO bets, Hero calls.

So much for the free card. Did villain hit two pair here, or did he slowplay his trips, or what? A slowplay would likely check-raise me so I'm not sure exactly how to read this...

River: (7.50 BB) 9[img]/images/graemlins/heart.gif[/img] (2 players)
CO bets, Hero calls.

Heck, I've called this far already, let's see what he has...

Final Pot: 9.50 BB

Milky · #2 03-04-2005, 12:30 PM

I dunno, I'm throwing a raise in there at some point. Either on the turn or river. The only reason I'd wait til the river is to let him keep betting his pocket pair or his 5. I don't see him betting this flop after you raised PF if he has a 7.

That being said, I don't think its that bad just calling down the Stop-n-Go against this passive opponent (though 40 hands is a pretty small sample size).

gman420 · #3 03-04-2005, 12:33 PM

Continuing with just overcards in a 9 handed game always seems like a dubious play to me. I have 6 outs if someone has a pair (which makes me a thee to one underdog assuming I see both the turn the and river) and if no one has anything i'm not likely to get much action anyway. In this situation, a passive caller preflop bet out post flop, indicating he hit something. In small stakes, players' bets usually mean what they represent. In this case, I would probably fold my two overcards (unless you knew something more about your opponent, such as that he might make that bet with just overcards. In that case he might have made an ace on the turn that you can beat, and continuing is a good move).

-Greg

Milky · #4 03-04-2005, 12:36 PM

Hero is getting 8-1 when it's a bet to him on the flop and the opponent is saying he probably doesn't have the 7 (otherwise he'd probably either C/R now or C/C then C/R the turn). I like a raise for a free card.

gman420 · #5 03-04-2005, 12:45 PM

You're right, the odds are pretty good. You are about 7:1 to make a pair on the turn, but are getting 8:1 if you call. Although, this assumes that your pair will be good. A passive player could bet out three 7's, then after a raise simply call because he has a poor kicker. Depending on your opponent, you may need to factor in some reverse implied odds (you make your hand but lose). Without knowing more about the opponent it is hard to say, and probably a call is marginal. The raise to get a free card is not likely to work because your opponent called your raise preflop, and then showed agression instead of checking to the raiser. The raise cut your odds in half, so unless knocking out the small blind made you a better favorite to win, a call (or a fold) is probably the better play.

-Greg

Milky · #6 03-04-2005, 12:56 PM

I like your analysis but I think the odds of being reverse-dominated are pretty small. Also, against a passive opponent I'm always raising here because I'm extremely likely to get a free card, EVEN IF HE HAS TRIPS. Against a tricky or aggro opponent I'd just call.

gman420 · #7 03-04-2005, 01:05 PM

I def see your point. If trips are unlikely, then a call or a raise (assuming you get the free card) both give you correct odds, and you might as well pad the pot. The play really comes down to how likely your opponent is to call a raise preflop holding a 7, and what type of hands he would bet out after this raise. It just seems unlikely that he would bet out if he hit 5's, although a middle pocket pair is certainly a possibility.

-Greg

Redeye · #8 03-04-2005, 01:17 PM

I definately play the flop the same way, the odds are that you are probably good here so you might be able to get SB to fold and protect your hand.

CO seems pretty LP but its a small sample size so I'm not sure what I would do. I might throw in a raise on the river but I think I have to be able to fold to a 3-bet here. There is a good chance CO was trying to take a stab at the pot with ace high on the flop.

gman420 · #9 03-04-2005, 01:50 PM

After looking back over all the posting I think this hand is a lot more complex than I initially thought, mainly because your opponents moves seem confusing when analyzed from the POV of a tactical player. This is a situation where knowing something more about your opponent would be extrememly helpful. The fact that he called your raise on the flop could mean he was taking a stab at the pot with just ace high, but it could be a slowplay for trip sevens. Betting out when the ace hits might be a deceptive play to make you think he has just aces.

A lot of times in small stakes hold em I find myself making mistakes because I give my opponents too much credit. Often a bet just means "i have something." Players in small stakes call preflop with hands like K7, A7, A5, etc all the time. My inclination is that in small stakes I start with the assumption that my opponent is fairly predictable, and modify from there. This is clearly not always going to be correct, and in this situation with only three players it might be completely wrong, but this principle seems to be what was guiding my thinking.

-Greg

ZootMurph · #10 03-04-2005, 01:57 PM

In 40 hands or so, this fella has played over half the hands he's been dealt. He's either getting great cards, or is playing any Ace, etc. etc. Now, maybe he has A5, and he bet out when he hit his 5. Maybe he has A7 or some 7. Even after only 40 hands, playing over 50% of those hands gives me the read of someone who isn't sophisticated enough to be running a stop and go. Therefore, I put him on a smaller ace and raise the turn. If he three bets, I call down. If he calls and bets into me again on the river, I probably just call.