Think along with me on this Party Super Tuesday bubble hand

[allenciox]

There are 160 players remaining, 120 get paid. Blinds are 300/600, villian is in CO+1 with 6300TC, I am in SB with 9200TC (slightly above average stack) and get dealt Jc9c. Villian frequently limps preflop. All fold to villian, who limps in. I complete the SB (anybody who would fold here need not read further), BB checks.

Flop (Pot:1800): Qc Jh 8s

Do you 1) check-fold, 2) check-call, 3) bet out, 4) check-raise all-in? I chose to bet out 1200 with second pair, a gutshot straight and a backdoor flush draw. BB folds, villian calls.

Turn (Pot=4200) : 3d

Do you 1) bet (how much?) 2) check-fold, 3) check-call?

Results and analysis after some opinions posted.

[betgo]

Push preflop.

[MrBrightside]

I would bet out, I don't see the point of check-raising all in. I think he calls you with any queen (yer beat) and lays down most other hands. This is with no read of course.

I would push him all in after the turn. That card can't have helped him, and if he had a Q, wouldn't he have raised? You should be ahead.

[qbler]

I'll take a stab at it. Villain's range is fairly wide, obviiously, though without the benefit of a more specific read I'll at least give him credit for a PP, at least one broadway card, or some type of connector. Has villain tended to limp in position and then play at pots? Or just limp in and then give up on flops? I like betting between half and 2/3 that pot on the flop, as I think a good percentage of the time you're taking it down right there. Villain's call is a little disconcerting. He could easily have a Q, J with higher kicker, or slowplayed straight or overpair, or he could have squat. On the turn I probably give up and check-fold, barring a better read on this villain. I just don't see how we can know where we stand here, and given that I'm not interested in putting any more chips behind midpair midkicker on a coordinated board.

[allenciox]

I like this choice best --- it's difficult to play drawing-type hands out of position, and even if I hit top pair, I can't know whether I am beat or not (bigger kicker). Since we are on the bubble, he is only going to come along with a big hand... even if not, J9s plays well against an overpair, and not too bad against something like AT.

[allenciox]

That's the problem with this hand --- I don't know where I stand (which is why betgo's approach of raising all-in preflop seems like a good choice). I think arguments can be made for the check-raise all-in on the flop (I may be ahead already and if not, I have a number of outs), or for leading out on the flop as was done and then betting all-in on the turn, praying that he doesn't have a queen. The option that I chose in real life is I think the absolute worst way to play the hand --- I checked on the turn, he bet all-in, I thought for a moment and then called. He turned over JT of spades, and I was dead to a ten or a card to pair the board (which would give me a split pot), which did not come on the river.

What was sad was that I had about 14,500TC a few hands before, and made a bonehead play that took me down to about 10,000, that put me on tilt for this hand, and I was down to about 3000. A few hands later, I picked up AA, an early position player raised, I reraised all-in, he had 99, a 9 came on the flop, and I was out of the tournament. So it was quite a disappointment to so quickly go from an easy chip leader at my table, to going out on the bubble, and the poor play on this hand was a key reason.