On the Bubble - - Easy Push ????

[smellynuts]

10+1 NL on Party

Chip leader was a pretty Tight Solid player throughout the tourny.

***** Hand History for Game 1335697597 *****
400/800 TourneyTexasHTGameTable (NL) (Tournament 8087121) -Wed Dec 22 21:36:38 EST 2004
Table Table 11473 (Real Money) -- Seat 9 is the button
Total number of players : 4
Seat 2: cue6272 (1390)
Seat 7: JDMhatch (1550)
Seat 8: Donationspls (3165)
Seat 9: hilosambo (1895)
cue6272 posts small blind (200)
JDMhatch posts big blind (400)
** Dealing down cards **
Dealt to JDMhatch [ 7c, 7d ]
Donationspls raises (800) to 800
hilosambo folds.
cue6272 folds.
JDMhatch folds.
** Summary **
Main Pot: 1400
cue6272 balance 1190, lost 200 (folded)
JDMhatch balance 1150, lost 400 (folded)
Donationspls balance 3765, bet 800, collected 1400, net +600
hilosambo balance 1895, didn't bet (folded)

Whats your play??

[lorinda]

What hand number is it at this level?

Lori

[Mr_J]

$10 tables, big stack is trying to steal. Min-raise probally means he's been getting away with it and probally is stealing with any 2. I'd push.

[lorinda]

$10 tables, big stack is trying to steal. Min-raise probally means he's been getting away with it and probally is stealing with any 2. I'd push.

I don't think it's that clear. Even if it's a steal, he's probably got two overs and is pot committed, and it may not be.
If the blinds go up in the next couple of hands, the pressure is really on the other short stack to take a shot, and when he does, our position will be clearer and we can still likely get a 40-60 or better even if he doubles thru.

Lori

[Mr_J]

"I don't think it's that clear. Even if it's a steal, he's probably got two overs and is pot committed, and it may not be."

True that it's not clear as a steal. I don't think big stack is pot committed at all. He has 2200 after the min-raise. If he loses, he's basically swapped positions with smelly, and is at decent risk of going out unplaced. I think big stack will fold most of the time. The times he doesn't, smelly is still ahead most of the time.

Also remember I'm a newbie [img]/images/graemlins/wink.gif[/img]

[lorinda]

Heh, I'm being very careful not to say "push is wrong" here, because I'm sure it's a close case.

I don't think big stack is pot committed at all

In a $11 at Party, _He_ will think he's pot committed [img]/images/graemlins/wink.gif[/img]

Lori

[Mr_J]

"In a $11 at Party, _He_ will think he's pot committed"

heh probally [img]/images/graemlins/laugh.gif[/img]

Also means he's probally just a high card, maybe nothing if the table has been letting him get away with it.

[Jman28]

With his stack in a $10+1, I'm almost positive he'll call. If you think he's got something like A3o, then it may be worth the push. Otherwise, muck it. You don't need the coinflip here.

[smellynuts]

Yeah for some reason i put him on a over pair 88+. I ended up running into AK a couple of hands later and busting out 4th.

[soko]

Easy push for me, you can only survive 2 more orbits, this is the time to hope for AK, AQ, AJ and take a coinflip for a chance to take the chiplead or bust out.