How bad is variance?

I've played 20k hands at $25NL full ring.

My bankroll started at $100. I'm using ed miller SS strategy so my buyins are $5.

I played until I hit $387 and then cashed out to end up at $100.

Then I was playing some more. In one day I went from $115 to $15, and then the next day I took that $15 to $205.

I know that limit has higher variance than no limit.

I know that the ideal bankroll SHOULD be 20x the buyin. Hence I had a $100 bankroll for $5 buyins.

My question is...How bad is variance really?!?!??! Assuming that I don't really tilt (I multitable but consistently control how I play so as to not induce tilt).

Is the 20x bankroll theory enough?!? I almost had a 20x buyin swing in a day....one the negative direction and one the positive direction.

[DCWGaming]

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I know that the ideal bankroll SHOULD be 20x the buyin. Hence I had a $100 bankroll for $5 buyins.


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...hahaha

[jaxUp]

A link that somebody recommended. I have never read it though, because I don't play SnGsWhy SnG variance is worse than limit

Here is another thread with some variance talk oocurs later on in the thread. Warning: There is a lot of useless posts in this thread...pay attention to shillx's post, and some of the ones around it especially.

another thread

[PoBoy321]

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I know that the ideal bankroll SHOULD be 20x the buyin. Hence I had a $100 bankroll for $5 buyins.

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...hahaha

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I don't get it, if he's utilizing Ed Miller's short stack strategy, I don't see the problem.

[soko]

it's the other way around, no limit has a much higher variance than limit. and the swings in no limit are much more sharp than they are in limit. is that's what you meant to say?

$100 for 20 buyins would be fine if you where going fully stacked into 2c/5c NL (not that ive ever seen that level)

Bottom line is, you dont have enough of a roll.
Buying in for $5 or 20bb is not enough chips to play properly.

For example, your sitting with AcKc. It is raised $1 to you and your on the button. You re-raise to $3 and are called by the original raiser. The flop is Ad 9d 2s.
If your opponent has a flush draw, you cant make him make a mistake with a call.
If you cant make him make a mistake, you cant win long term.

If you where playing nickle/dime, $100 for 20 buy-ins would be a pretty good bankroll at that level.

If you want to only risk $100, go to a site with micro limits until your ready to move up.

Bad. Very bad.

[DCWGaming]

the 20x buyin idea is based on a full buyin. It is pretty obvious that there will be much more variance (buyins/hands) with a 5$ buyin than there will be with a 25$ buyin. The BB/hand variance will be higher with a full buyin. But with a 5$ buyin, you will be tossing and picking up buyins left and right. The variance will be much higher and require more than 20x buyin bankroll.

My suggestion is to either take your 100$ and play microlimits, or take your 500$ and play full buyin of the same level. You've gotta learn to play poker, bro.

[4_2_it]

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it's the other way around, no limit has a much higher variance than limit. and the swings in no limit are much more sharp than they are in limit. is that's what you meant to say?

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You are half correct. Limit has a much higher variance over the long run, but the short term swings are much greater in NL.

[4_2_it]

If your strategy is to go all-in $5 at a time, I think you will need much more than 20 'buy-ins'.

I have experienced downswings of 10-12 full buy-ins and can say that I wasn't tilting or playing that badly the entire time. All it takes are 10-15 bad beats for your stack that aren't offset by times your hand holds up.

Read the FAQ and start playing at a level where you buy in for a full stack. If you dream of moving up to the larger levels, you better have more game than Short Stack 101.