AK and bleeding chips on river

CostaRicaBill · #1 08-09-2004, 12:51 PM

MP1 is very LAG and is capable of making complete bluffs at big pots into several opponents. I've got no read on the button.

Party Poker 3/6 Hold'em (10 handed) converter

Preflop: Hero is MP3 with K[img]/images/graemlins/diamond.gif[/img], A[img]/images/graemlins/club.gif[/img]. CO posts a blind of $3.
3 folds, MP1 calls, 1 fold, Hero raises, 1 fold, Button calls, 1 fold, BB calls, MP1 calls.

Flop: (9.33 SB) 4[img]/images/graemlins/club.gif[/img], 9[img]/images/graemlins/diamond.gif[/img], K[img]/images/graemlins/spade.gif[/img] (4 players)
BB checks, MP1 bets, Hero raises, Button 3-bets, BB folds, MP1 calls, Hero calls.

Should I cap here, I'm not worried about MP1 but am at least up against buttons 2 pair or set right?

Turn: (9.16 BB) J[img]/images/graemlins/heart.gif[/img] (3 players)
MP1 checks, Hero checks, Button bets, MP1 calls, Hero calls.

River: (12.16 BB) J[img]/images/graemlins/club.gif[/img] (3 players)
MP1 bets, Hero calls, Button raises, MP1 calls, Hero calls.

So now MP1 bets out who I'm almost positive I have beat and is just taking a stab at the pot as he has done in previous hands. Should I have called and folded to a raise from the button? How horrible was calling the raise on the end? Thanks

Final Pot: 18.16 BB
Main Pot: 18.16 BB, between Hero, Button and MP1.

zram21 · #2 08-09-2004, 01:36 PM

Cap this flop. With no read on the button why do you put him on a definite two pair or set? Wouldn't he play KQ this way as well? He may be playing a weaker K too.

After capping the flop I would lead out on the turn. If the button is still firing away then slow down, but don't fold. The pot is way too big to fold.

And the river call was a must. You may lose to a full house here, but even if the button made two pair on the flop then the river likely just forfeited his two pair. A fold would have been very bad in this spot on the river.

StellarWind · #3 08-09-2004, 02:43 PM

I think you played this correctly with no real draws on the board. Call down and avoid starting a fight with someone who is likely to have a better hand and knows it. It isn't easy to outplay someone who can correctly guess your hand so minimize his options. If he is going crazy with a lesser king you don't lose much by letting him bet your hand for you instead of warning him with a cap. This also keeps MP1 safely in the pot and donating with his likely near-dead hand. It really hurts that you have so few outs against likely Button hands.

The river is a potential miracle because it kills all two-pair flops. This is certainly no time to get out of the hand especially since MP1 declined to 3-bet as he might have done with real trips. That would have been a real problem for you.

CostaRicaBill · #4 08-09-2004, 03:10 PM

My thinking was the MP1 was basically bluffing with the river bet, and the two jacks would either negate a possible two pair or scare the button into just calling, so I called as well. I think once he raised the river showing no fear, I was pretty much dead and should've folded even though it was a pretty big pot. Do I have to call that raise?

zram21 · #5 08-09-2004, 03:11 PM

[ QUOTE ]
Do I have to call that raise?

[/ QUOTE ]

Yes

Edit: Again you don't have any read on the button so despite the fact he likely has a strong hand you shouldn't just assume it is one that beats you. Your getting a little over 17:1 closing the action. You only need to be good here better than 6% of the time for the call to be profitable.

If you call and he shows you the full house then you lose one more big bet. If you fold and he shows KQ then you gave up 17 BB.

StellarWind · #6 08-09-2004, 03:26 PM

[ QUOTE ]
My thinking was the MP1 was basically bluffing with the river bet, and the two jacks would either negate a possible two pair or scare the button into just calling, so I called as well. I think once he raised the river showing no fear, I was pretty much dead and should've folded even though it was a pretty big pot. Do I have to call that raise?

[/ QUOTE ]
So you think you are the only one who can see that MP1 is an idiot? The Internet delivers to the Button's house too.

He may have KQ and be repeating his earlier laggishness, he may have two counterfeited pair that he is desperately bluffing, and he may have the same hand as you.

The AK possibility is quite likely and it would be a great coup if he convinced you to fold.

He is not 17-1 to have a set. You have to call this.

Garland · #7 08-09-2004, 04:16 PM

The action is not looking good for you. There are no draws on the flop, so button's 3-bet looks to mean a made hand of some sort, but it's entirely possible he has AK for chop-chop or KQ, which is even better. Unfortuately in this case, the cap is 4 bets and not 5. If it were 5, I'd easily 4 bet and see if he'd 5 bet. If he does then you can check-fold the turn without improvement.

Given this is a 4-bet cap, I'd cap the flop myself and lead the turn. If he still raises and isn't prone to overplaying his hands, I'm pretty sure you're drawing slim/dead and can fold, especially if MP1 cold-calls.

I get a lot of flack for folding in huge pots, but I use common sense and know when I'm beaten.

Garland

StellarWind · #8 08-09-2004, 04:49 PM

[ QUOTE ]
Given this is a 4-bet cap, I'd cap the flop myself and lead the turn. If he still raises and isn't prone to overplaying his hands, I'm pretty sure you're drawing slim/dead and can fold, especially if MP1 cold-calls.

[/ QUOTE ]
When the flop 3-bet comes back you can invest 2.5 BB for call-call-call and a showdown. Or you can cap the flop and bet-fold the turn which costs 2 BB and gives you no river card and no showdown.

Trying to make a perfect fold to save 1/2 BB is terrible. Sometimes you will fold the best hand and sometimes you will suckout on the river. Your losses will be much larger than your tiny savings.

Players who routinely fold strong hands in large pots are the biggest suckers in limit poker. The losses are huge and get worse as your opponents read your play and start taking extra shots because you're a "folder".

Garland · #9 08-09-2004, 05:04 PM

Yeah, I did the math of 2.5 big bets to see the river vs 2.0 big bets to try to maintain the lead, but I have to figure that saving that .5 bets and knowing I'm dead is better than passively calling down 2.5 when I'm dead. Besides if MP1 is cold-calling 2 on the turn, what in the world does that mean?

I do not routinely make big folds, and my opponents are not likely to pick up on it because they don't know what I folded and because I play so infrequently. I only recommend the line if you have a strong read on the button and it's likely to showdown with another player.

Garland