Mid East peace priming the process

[zaxx19]

In keeping with my new "balanced" approach to posting in this forum. Id like to see suggestions for what the Israeli government SHOULD REASONABLY be expected to do en lieu of the positive election results in "Palestine".

Ill say up front they should immediately remove dozens of the less important roadblocks, remove forces from outside any Palestinian cities NOT HEAVILY INVOLVED IN TERRORISM, and perhaps they should put a moratorium on the construction of the security wall-fence for the next few months. Freezing settlement growth, natural or otherwise, could be a carrot extended in exchange for 3 months of relative quiet from the Palestinians.

Does this represent a token gesture...I dont think so considering how effective the wall and other security measures have been at preventing attacks in the last yr. Does it go far enough>>?? I dont know. One thing is for sure Abu Mazen will need to deliver results token or otherwise on the ground before he can consolidate his power to such a degree that he bacomes a viable peace partner.

What other steps should Israel take?


How should Israel respond if there is a rash of new attacks after relaxing security measures??


How long will it take until Abbas becomes powerful enough to assert COMPLETE CONTROL IN THE TERRITORIES and take on armed groupd such as Hamas to disarm them permanently?

Is this a reasonable goal for Abbas. Does Hamas et al. need to be neutered for a peace process to take place??(I will say here I believe this HAS TO HAPPEN BEFORE A REAL SUBSTANTIVE PROCESS BEGINS)

Please be realistic and not make ridiculous comments like "Israel should pull back to the 67' border immediately" bc that simply isnt gonna happen with Sharon in power so there is no reason for us to discuss it.

[nicky g]

"Please be realistic and not make ridiculous comments like "Israel should pull back to the 67' border immediately" bc that simply isnt gonna happen with Sharon in power so there is no reason for us to discuss it."

If there's no point discussing the impossible then there's no point discussing Abbas crushing Hamas, as even if he tried, it would be politically and militarily impossible, especially in Gaza, and likely wind up with him getting killed and/or a civil war. In the short term, some token arrests are about as much as he will be able to do, and securing a truce on both sides is a more reasonable and attainable goal. In the longer term, if conditions ease enough and people feel Abbas is getting them somewhere, support for Hamas might fall enough to make a wider crackdown possible, should it be necessary, although I still don;t see the fullscale destruction of Hamas and if it were attempted I don't think it would be successful.

Your suggestions for measures are reasonable although as you would assume I think they should go further and faster.

[Gamblor]

With 100 years of terrorism under their belts even before any 1967 wars, what do the Palestinians need to do to show they are genuinely giving up the "kill all Israelis" dream and not just sitting around waiting for Israeli defences to relax?

[zaxx19]

If there's no point discussing the impossible then there's no point discussing Abbas crushing Hamas,

If thats true then there is little to nill hope for a Palestinian state in the future...You cant give the Palestinians a state which they cant control, correct??

I mean this is pure speculation bc all thats ever been done is token "house arrests". How can you seriously ask the Israelis to make substantial concessions while the PA is harboring a huge group of armed militants bent on killing as many Israelis as possible and ending the existence of Israel. If it takes a massive swoop and kill operation by joint Israeli and PA gunmen so be it. If it takes a thousand dead civilains than so be it. I mean if the alternative is 30 more years of violence death and no home land for the Palestinians ...isnt it worth a civil war?? If Israel intervened there is no serious way Hamas could put up much of a fight,I mean if ALL the gloves came off.

[nicky g]

"If thats true then there is little to nill hope for a Palestinian state in the future...You cant give the Palestinians a state which they cant control, correct??"

Well the counter argument is that they can;t control it without a state, and especially not after their security infrastructure has been largely destroyed. The other point would be that it's next to impossible to quell an insurgency movement that has significant popular support, and that that popular support won't go away without a significant improvement in living conditions etc. The British never managed to destroy the IRA for example, and if they had have made destorying them a condition of devolved government that wouldn;t ahve worked either.

"I mean if the alternative is 30 more years of violence death and no home land for the Palestinians ...isnt it worth a civil war?? If Israel intervened there is no serious way Hamas could put up much of a fight,I mean if ALL the gloves came off. "

I'm not sure it would be a winnable one. Taking all the gloves off didn;t work in Vietnam for example despite that massive disparity in forces. A political solution that will draw support away from extreme methods, eg a truce followed by disarmamanet in return for a state, is what is needed.

[zaxx19]

If you think the US took the gloves of in Vietnam....

Well we have a serious gulf between what you consider taking off all the gloves and what I do. For example alot of US generals advocated tyhe use of tactical nuclear weapons or the bombin of damns in the northern Mekong. Either one of these steps probably would have won the war....Not that I would have advocated their use...or US involvememnt in Vietnam at all.

Syria put down a very popular insugency movement in Hama without any support in the area. They simply killed thousands and bulldozed where the insurgents lived completely leaving the worlds largest parking lot. You can do almost anything with enough guns, missiles and intelligence...it really is a question of will more than operational capacity. I dco agree however Gaza probably would be left in limbo for awhile....not a big problem for me as long as they are sealed off from Israel like they basically are now.

[Gamblor]

You still seem to think that deep down, down past all the diplomacy and bullshit, Abbas really is thinking about anything other than how to hold on to his life and assert his power.

Given that, I don't see how anyone could possibly expect him to convince the security forces to seriously take on anyone, especially Hamas. Let alone Israeli troops.

He has no moral or ethical problem with Kassams raining down on nursery school. But strategically, they're not a good idea.

[nicky g]

Well nuclear bombs clearly aren't an option in this case. I consider what the US did in Vietnam far beyond taking to gloves off; it killed around 2mn people and dropped vastly more bombs than were dropped in the entire second world war. The tactics you seem to be referring to talking about are close to simply killing vast swathes of the population (opening the dam etc). That might work in the short run, but it could result in then having to kill the entire Arab population of the world, followed by the entire Muslim population of the world, probably followed by a global nuclear holocaust. At any rate it is far beyond what most people would consider remotely within the bounds of acceptability.

My understanding of what happened in Hama was that it was a simmering hotpot of discontent that exploded into a riot tha tthe Syrians put down brutally. It wasn't a long-standing conflict and it didn;t have much support outside of the city, which as you say they had to almost completely flatten to quell. The equivalent would be flattening the West Bank. Of course you can ultimately quell insurgencies by resorting to such tactics, but not only are they inhuman, they demand endless repressive measures afterwards to stop them from boiling over again. Basically they demand you turn into an Saddam-style state. I don;t think that would do the region very much good.

[zaxx19]

If there are no carrots that will persuade the Palestinians to take action..then it must be a REALLY BIG stick like expansion of the settlementsforced deportations...wide scale demolitions of houses...I mean something needs to give here.

[Felix_Nietsche]

a waste of time. I have a better chance of making money calling re-raises with 32o, than the chance there will be peace in the Middle East.

Now if it were 32-s......Mmmmmmm....