Settle a bet for me

[iceman5]

Maybe there isnt one correct answer to this, but help me settle a bet. Lets say your playing $5/$10. You raise to $40 UTG with 97s. (if you dont like that play just ignore it, it has nothing to do with the question). You get called by MP and SB.

The pot is $130 and you all started with $1000.
The flop comes 865 rainbow.

You bet $125....MP folds....and then the SB min check raises to $250. He ONLY does this with a set. You KNOW he has a set.

Heres the question:

1) Do you push in now? Theres no way hes folding this and you get him all in 100% of the time as a 2-1 favorite

2) Do you call and push in at the turn after making sure the board doesnt pair. Since you KNOW he has a set, you will fold the turn if the board pairs and you can get him all in on the turn as a much bigger favorite but avoid getting busted once every 5.5 or so times that the board pairs on the turn. With this choice, you run the risk of him chickening out if the board becomes a 4 card straight although he probably wouldnt believe you had it since you raised UTG.

[captZEEbo1]

It should obviously be the turn if it's given that he will automatically call allin on both flop and turn AND you are 100% sure he has a set.

[gomberg]

[ QUOTE ]
It should obviously be the turn if it's given that he will automatically call allin on both flop and turn AND you are 100% sure he has a set.

[/ QUOTE ]

He said he could chicken out on the turn if a scare card comes. That makes the problem a little more complicated. It all depends on stack sizes and some math.

[ML4L]

Hey iceman,

Unless you and your friend specifically said, "The results of this poll will determine who wins the bet," this isn't going to help. There is wiggle-room in the "probably isn't going to believe you if you move-in on the turn when a four-card straight is there" clause.

It's really easy to turn this into a math problem with a clear answer. I'm not sure why you don't just do that? Incidentally, it's possible that neither of the two options that you provided is correct...

ML4L

[iceman5]

Well, if the guy will call an all in on the turn no matter what comes, then the turn has to be the better time to push, but there has to be some cards that would scare him right? If hes weak tight, then an ace or king at the turn might scare him

[captZEEbo1]

I just did some math for it, and here's what I came up with.

The EV of pushing flop is:
$2050 * .653 = 1338.65

The EV of waiting for turn is
case a) chk fold bad turn:
-290 (15% of the time)
case b) you push safe turn, he calls
(85% of the time)
$2050 * .773 = 1584.65

or .85*1584.65 + .15*-290
$1304.95

So it's better to get it all in on the flop given all the bet sizes available. This is counterintuitive to me, so maybe I made an error somewhere.

[Rotating Rabbit]

Yeah. You're confused about what you're defining EV as (you use two different ideas). In my head:

Flop expected win is +330
For the turn your expected win is +400 and a bit

The line beginning "or" in your calculation the 1584 should be just 584. And this should be obvious because one is the expected stack size the other is the expected win.

[fnord_too]

There are 7 ways the board can pair the turn and 3 ways the board can OESD the turn, 10 ways it can 4 card straight at all.

So, the pot is $630 when you call, each of you has 710 behind.

If you push, 2/3 of the time you end up with 2040 1/3 you end up with 0 for an expectated $1360 when all is said in done.

If you call and push the turn, assuming he will automatically fold to any 4 straight on the board and you fold any time the board pairs:
7/45 you end up with 710.
10/45 you end up with 1340.
28/45 you end up with a situation where you get 2040 34/44 times and get 0 10/44 times.
That comes out to just over $1389 if I did the math right.

So, pushing now you expect to have a $1360 stack when all is said and done and waiting for the turn you expect to have a $1389 stack when all is said and done, and with less variance.

Wait for the turn.

[djoyce003]

why not wait till the river? He's not folding a set.

[captZEEbo1]

Redoing it....

The EV of pushing flop is:
$2050 * .653 = 1338.65

The EV of waiting for turn is
case a) chk fold bad turn:
1000-290=710 (15% of the time)
case b) you push safe turn, he calls
(85% of the time)
$2050 * .773 = 1584.65

or .85*1584.65 + .15*710
$1453.45

So my first instinct was right, and it's a better play by:
1453.45-1338.65=$114.80

This doesn't account for on board splits though, however minor that is.