20-40 Taj Hand...Time to get creative or do you have to hit?

[Jeffage]

"why you bet the turn,take a free cards"

Because I'd like to take a shot at winning this hand on the turn without having to hit my hand...eventually the cards break even; sometimes u have to steal pots.

Jeff

[Jeffage]

"The problem is that he's right; unless you improve you will lose to ace-high in a showdown. If he's good, 3-betting the turn won't necessarily change his read. He may still be willing to show down with ace high."

Do you really think he is willing to put in $80 more to look me up with Ace high here? The real question is, would he 4-bet with just the ace...he's good but I don't think he's a psychic. You make many salient points though...it is a tough spot, he likely has something but he is also tricky. The thing is with something like a pair of 9's making this move he is much less likely to fold to a river raise...he may check-call or bet call but he ain't folding. If I put one more bet in on the turn, he may fold rather than call two more bets to see me. I like this hand because it is tough to pin down a right answer...esp. against a tricky opponent. The question is, if you make these moves, how often do you make them? Against tight players? Loose players?

Thanks for the input,
Jeff

[Jeffage]

"I am guessing he only has to fold 15-20% of the time for your raise to show a profit."

Would this still be the case if you were planning to bet the river again if you missed (which I assume you pretty much have to with the size of the pot at that point though it seems hopeless). Or would you not bet the riv if he called the 3-bet and u missed? I can't see just conceding the pot at that point but I welcome being corrected...that was one of the things I found troublesome in the 3 seconds I thought about what to do [img]/forums/images/icons/smile.gif[/img] .

Jeff

[Jeffage]

"What play do you make on the river if you miss..."

That's one of the problems with going with the turn 3-bet. I would be getting 11-1 on the river bet if he checks to me after calling the turn 3-bet. But would he really fold even 1 time in 11 if he called on the turn? Then again its tough to imagine conceding the pot by checking. This hand seems kinda gray to me...of course, I may not have 3-bet at all but appreciate all analysis...results later.

Jeff

[Pot-A]

I wouldn't pump it on the turn - you need to hit to win, and most likely he has some kind of draw if he doesn't have a made hand. I think the odds he'll fold are not really very good.

A better approach might be to call the turn and bet the river no matter what comes. He'll be hard pressed to raise without a monster, and you'll snap off a failed semi-bluff (maybe even a better heart draw) which can beat you in a showdown. If he raises on the river you can just throw it away.

[Hobart]

I play at the Taj frequently and I have seen a player like "Doc" catch a set on the flop,then check on the turn to let someone catch up. When you missed on the flop you are in for a long race. Wisg you could identify some of the players in a pm.

[rtrombone]

You are right that if you put a play on him at the river he will still often call you. I acknowledged this in my prior post.

The type of opponent I would make this play against is a weak-tight one. Someone who is pretty reasonable in terms of hand selection but is overly concerned with saving bets. Someone who is too willing to believe you have the hand you are representing. You know the type--you can easily slow them down with a raise at any point, and they surprise you with the hands they show down because you would've played them a lot faster.

Putting a play on a loose bad player is suicidal. These guys will go to showdown with any pair. Putting a play on a good, tricky player is also difficult. You see, good players recognize that when a hand gets heads up, it pays to be extremely aggressive. All you have to do is get one guy to fold to win.

It almost gets to the point where if you're heads up with a tricky player, you're more worried about a raise than a call. Because a good player knows that when he calls, the only way he's going to win is if his hand is good. Whereas if he raises, his opponent may fold...

You've stated that this guy is a tricky player. What it comes down to, then, is what you think his impression of you is. If you think he perceives as you as tight and straightforward, go ahead and make it 3 bets at the turn. If you think he thinks you're tricky, I don't think he will fold to a 3-bet.

[anatta]

In all my vast experience of making turn re-raise semi-bluffs vs. possible re-stealing turn check-raisers, I have found that, since I have position, one of the key advantages is having a hand with which I can take a free showdown. I am glad you noticed this...I was testing you. [img]/forums/images/icons/grin.gif[/img] (okay...I never thought of it!)

Really the fact that a bluff bet on the end is practically hopeless, yet also perhaps +EV, reduces the benefits of making this play on the turn. Similarly, he could have a bigger draw, a set which fills up and flushes you, he could re-raise you back on the turn, etc.

Nonetheless, if you think he will fold a decent percentage of the time (and I agree, his play does stink of a resteal), folding something like 1 time out of 5, this is still a good play, me thinks. Even without doing the EV analysis, your chances of winning has now gone up to about 40%. (20% for the flush, 20% for the fold) Sure, calling and folding if you miss is clearly +EV, but so is raising, and I think more so.

[bernie]

it's a better defense if the guy was UTG. because then there is less likely of a reraise behind you since youre closer to closing the action.

i wouldnt call this in this spot preflop.

b

[DaBartman]

Hi Jeffage
Just got back here. Hand created quite a thread! You asked for some comments on the rest of the hand. The turn bet is fine, it looks like you may have spiked a queen for a good pair or maybe even str8! w/KJ. Anyway, it is very unlikely you will win without betting. As for considering a re-steal, at this point I feel you must catch your opponet without a pair to be successful. Given the pot size and it will cost him two bets to see it through you will get called at the river (assuming you follow through if you miss). Oh hell, this is really difficult for me, trying to be completely objective when I (90% of the time), would not have been in the same situation. And yes, I agree his turn check was suspect. Even if he held the KJs, a bet by him is really the correct way to go. But then again if he did hold the KJ or KJs would not the Q have likely helped another hand? Lotsa folks still in the pot still. If he had planned on a flop checkraise with QQ, had it foiled and checked the turn, well that was just bad poker. Come to think of it the ONLY hand worth checking the turn would be Kh Jh. I would not be afraid to give a free card here. Anyway, I want to read how this hand came out, so see ya!