KK - overpair hell

[MuckerFish]

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What is villain's most likely hand in the 3 situations?

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Hand 1: Better than yours

Hand 2: Better than yours

Hand 3: Not so sure..you're probably good here a decent percentage of the time, I don't know, maybe around 20-30% of the time. River call vs. fold is probably not a huge mistake in either direction

[4_2_it]

Grunching, I would reverse your play in Hands 1 and Hands 2. I hate calling down on paired boards, but will do it on gut shot 4-straight boards. I have nothing scientific to back it up other than villains will rarely bet a paired board on a draw while they will almost ignore the straight board with TPTK or an overpair.

Hand 3 I haven't a clue. That turn bet begs a raise, so I would call as well. I probably call down the river too because if I have him beat he folds to my raise and if I don't he is pushing.

Edit - I see the results. Hand 3 villain [img]/images/graemlins/confused.gif[/img] I hope he stayed at your table for a long time and kept reloading.

[Leptyne]

I'm very particular about table and seat selection in starting to play. Always run PT ~45 min first. My biggest rule is look at the first two players on my left. NO LAGS ALLOWED! After I've got my seat if a new LAG sits down in one of these seats I'm gone.

Hand No. 1: I'm not betting into a paired board v. this LAG. Check behind, fold to a turn bet when the flush hits.

Hand No. 2. Fing LAGs. I know you have the button, but what are you going to do? Made str8 flops with a flush draw? How much heat can your top pair handle? By now I'm into my "bear trap" mode.

Hand No. 3. Can't believe KK again. Love the larger bring-in. Love the flop. This LAG can't be hitting every flop. I'm now looking at his stack. OK, he hits us with a min-raise. Great call. Turn he donk bets. You've got to put in small raise here to build a pot, but not run him off.

River he leads into the trap. I wnat this to look like I'm trying to steal so I fire back with something. You've now got a history so you'll know what to do. Turns out he folds? Tough, but now you don't have to show and he's now left wondering if he got outplayed.

Hands 1 and 2 I can't possibly put a LAG on a hand. Hand No. 3 I put him on air. As I look back I'm thinking if you raise the turn he may get away, or call and check the river. Better to call and keep him in the lead. If he's playing with air you're not going to get his stack unless he tries a steal at the river.

[beavens]

so ideally you want LAGs to your right and TAGs to your left?

i was never quite sure about which one it was..

and thanks for advising on waiting to sit at a table way before you actually play.. i always jump in and hope i'm in the right spot. now before i plan to play, ill just watch a few tables and choose accordingly.

I made the mistake of reading through the posts before responding, but to hear hand 2 was an overpair did not surprise me, and I could buy the flop play on the third hand. Hand 1, I agree with dj, thats a damn scary card and for someone with those stats, could well give them something better than TP, folding seems smartest.

On the second hand, TT/JJ/QQ are all a little hard to play OOP and so I check to you out of respect for your PFR, but then you bet out weakly for a CB (not too much more than your original PFR and well short of a pot-sized bet) and I start to think my overpair is the best hand. I would have repoped you more than a min-reraise, but since it put you on the defensive, I suppose it worked. The turn lead is relatively small, espcially given how strong I thought my hand was to merit a check/raise, so it seems pretty clear I have something that seemed a lot stronger, but then got frightened by the straight.

On hand three, you again make a small CB and I figure I'll get a little clever with you and repop you, but damn, you called, so you have *something*, but since I'm the kind of player who min-reraises and I'm not too sure what I'm doing, I flop around on the turn. Wait, you only called this weak-ass turn bet. At this point, your hand screams unpaired paint or a PP smaller than a J and since I now have the initiative, I'll bet out bluff much bigger on a blank river.

The problem with these last two hands all seems to start with how weak your CB is. I don't know if your CB is typically around 2/3 pot-sized, but these seems very small for a flop bet. I can't back this up specifically, but I've found my CBs are called much more frequently when I bet less than near pot-sized. For that reason, I always try to make it a point to bet pot-sized on the flop, if for no other reason than to discourage people making moves at me by always showing strength.