Bob Ciaffone One Table Quiz

[AleoMagus]

Well, I was going to say fold in a heartbeat, but you have done a very good job of talking me into a call.

Sure... I call too.

Regards,
Brad S

[La Brujita]

The responses were not long but here they are:

Cloutier-"Fold. The most likely hands for my opponent are an ace or a pair, neither of which I can beat."

Russ Hamilton (former WSOP winner)- "Fold. I can find a better spot for my money. I'm going uphill here."

Harrington- "Call. I like the action."

Bobby Hoff (former WSOP 2nd Place finisher)- "Call. You are getting acceptable pot odds against an ace with an undercard and good odds against any underpair. You might have him in bad shape. The only enemy hands where you're totally buried are pocket aces or kings."

Steve Lott (former WSOP 4th place)-"Call. I would make this play without a second thought. I've seen the kind of crummy hands a lot of these satellite players move all in with."

McEvoy-"Fold. I can't beat ace rag, his most likely hand. The first player is the one who moved all in, so he is more likely to have something reasonable. I would bet all in with this hand without a problem, but this is not a good hand to call with."

Ciaffone-"I actually held the hand. My decision was to call. The result ... my opponent held ace rag and I fiald to improve."

He then goes into a page long discussion (which is very interesting) further explaining why he called.

Basically the reasons are:

1. tourney only pays first place, survival less important

2. You need to win 37.5 percent of time for positive ev. You are 42% against ace rag offsuit and 38% against ace rag suited. You are even money against an underpair.

3. Chances are slim you are facing a hand that has you buried (AA, KK, AK, QQ, AQ).

I thought it was a clear call for many of the same reasons above, basically you can't give up postitive ev in a winner take all format. Big blinds make you go in as an underdog sometimes.

It typed this in playing three short handed games at once. Is that talent or what? If you all don't play at Intercasino and its skins you are missing some easy money. You can make $47 in 75 minutes at William Hill by playing 4 1-2 tables.

Anyway, I have suggested in certain other threads that it is hard for good players to get their money in as 'dogs. i think this is an example. If you run the numbers against the range of likely hands it seems a positive ev call.

[DrPhysic]

Jayson,
I read all the answers in LaBrujita's post. My answer still stands, because:
1. I absolutely DO NOT like playing KQ anyway, esp KQo. personal prejudice based on losing lots of $ with it.
2. I think (as indicated in LB's post) that the +ev and the percentages on winning the hand are really close. If they weren't this would not be an interesting thread.
3. I would much rather have him call my ace rag, than me call his.
4. I cannot argue with the call him now, he's the next bb and he's desperate, therefore may have ANYTHING, line of argument.
5. I think it's more of a preference in how you wish to play it, and you were right if you get lucky this time. I don't think there is substantial mathematical difference between the two approaches.

Doc [img]/images/graemlins/cool.gif[/img]

[jaydoggie]

i think the +EV is close for this hand. but you win the flip, and go on to win the game are probably 3X as likely. whereas if you fold your chance goes down tremendously as the short stack. IMO.

but as in all poker, everyone has their own choice. i know one guy who would fold AA becuase he would have a substantial edge 3 handed. [img]/images/graemlins/smile.gif[/img]

[PrayingMantis]

Hey Doc,

As much as I think about it, it doesn't look like a close call, but like a good call. I think what is interesting in this question is not that it's a close one, but rather that it *looks* like a close one, when actually it isn't.

I made some more CEV analysis.

If you figure him to push from UTG with any pair and any A, these are the numbers for each possibility:

Pairs J and below: 60. AJo and below: 120. AJs and below: 40. AA: 6. KK: 3. QQ: 3. AK: 12. AQ: 12.

I made an avarage EV calculation for your standing with KQo against any of these, and the general CEV you get from calling here, with the specific pot, is +T140. This is a lot, considering your stack size.

I would say, that in general, typical UTG can push here with a wider range of hands, which makes it even more +CEV. If he's *very* tight it becomes closer, but surely +CEV.

With blinds that high, winner-takes-all, and no specified differencies in ability, it looks definitely like a call to me.

Yes, KQ is a problematic hand, but here you wont have to play it post flop or anything. Just make the right decision.

PrayingMantis

[Bozeman]

I would usually call.

Gap is small here, negative possibly because of big blinds.

Some UTG's could have any two.

Winner take all places no extra value on survival, and big blinds means it will be hard to outplay your opponents by much.

Your SB will be seriously -EV.

People may mistakenly not want to attack the big stack, so your extra chips may be worth more.

You are getting pot odds to call every hand except AK, AQ, AA, KK, QQ. These are less likely. Against any pair or ace you are 39.8% to win for +91 CEV, and usually he will do this with more than 20% of hands. Just adding KQ KJ pushes you to +160 CEV, and adding just KTs,QTs,JTs,QJ to that gives you +244.

Definitely a coin flip you shouldn't avoid.

Craig

[DrPhysic]

OK, guys.

If for no other reason than my own statement that i would push with any two cards from UTG, and with your ev analysis, I admit it, you're right on this one.

What influenced my initial thinking was $ I have lost over time with KQo, and calling other people's all in.

Doc [img]/images/graemlins/smile.gif[/img]

[jaydoggie]

glad you finally made the right decision doc. gl in the 215, i decided to take the tournament dollars. [img]/images/graemlins/smile.gif[/img]



(note: i am now an enthusiast.)

[Bozeman]

The error that many people make here is that this is a -EV call IF YOU COULD KEEP YOUR BB, and possibly over your predeal expectation. And you are an underdog, to almost all ranges of hands UTG could have. But these are fuzzy thinking arguments.

Not to say that you made these errors, but I suspect Tom McEvoy did.

Craig

[Al_Capone_Junior]

OK.

I discussed this today over lunch with DrPhysic. My instantaneous impression after hearing the problem was that is was a close decision. After reading the post (but none of the responses), and seeing that four expert players had different opinions, I am now sure that "I was right." [img]/images/graemlins/grin.gif[/img]

I am ever so slightly leaning towards "fold," assuming nothing about the raiser. I certainly would not "chastize and cast out" anyone who said call.

I lean slightly towards fold because the blinds/stack sizes are as they were stated. Make the big blind 600 or more and I feel it would automatically become a call. As it stands, it's a borderline decision.

al