Blind Defense: Bluffing on flops with an Ace?

[sammy_g]

Here is a problem I was thinking about earlier today:

Say a reasonably aggressive button open raises, SB folds, and you call in BB with Q [img]/images/graemlins/spade.gif[/img] 9 [img]/images/graemlins/spade.gif[/img]. Button generally plays well and is capable of laying down a hand. Flop comes A [img]/images/graemlins/diamond.gif[/img] 7 [img]/images/graemlins/club.gif[/img] 2 [img]/images/graemlins/diamond.gif[/img]. My typical line here is check/fold, but I'm starting to wonder if it might be a serious error to never make a play at the pot. Button's range is pretty wide. He might have JTo or K6s or 44. This is a bad flop for most of his hands.

What % of the time should I bluff at this? What is the best line? Check/raise? Check/call, bet? Check/call, check/raise? Donk betting the flop?

I suppose we could use game theory to determine the optimal bluffing frequency, but I don't know the technique. Also the optimal strategy might not be as good an exploitative strategy against most opponents.

One other wrinkle: When I hold Ace-rag here, I check/call, check/call, bet. An observant opponent will see I play Ace-rag this way and know I don't have an Ace when I check-raise. Does this mean I should check-raise Ace-rag sometimes to balance it with my bluffs?

My HU play and blind defense really needs some work, and I struggle in these spots. I hope this post generates some discussion as I think learning to play situations like this well is critical to beating tougher games.

[wackjob]

all blind defense is dependent upon the opponent. you just can't make any sort of generalization here and hope that it will work successfully.

[sammy_g]

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all blind defense is dependent upon the opponent. you just can't make any sort of generalization here and hope that it will work successfully.

[/ QUOTE ]
Of course this is true. But I generally check/fold against almost all opponents here except the maniacs. Is this a mistake? What opponents would you try a bluff against?

I did give a read in my original post.

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Say a reasonably aggressive button open raises [...] Button generally plays well and is capable of laying down a hand.

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It might be a bit vague, but often at the table you don't have much more to go on.

Against an unknown, do you check/fold and not worry about it?

[Grisgra]

I usually don't play back but I certainly have before. More often, on the button, I've had people play back at me (especially when the raise was from the SB), and even folding to my bluff-raise or bluff-3-bet on the flop.

In other words, at the higher limits this happens all the time. OOP I tend to check/fold unless I know the guy's ASB is >40% and I think he's not going to go nutso bluffing back at me. Remember that most people are going to wonder why you're checkraising here when you could be going for the turn checkraise with TP.

[beachbum]

HEPFAP SH theory suggests that you "ignore" the top card in HU, just pretend it's not there. This is applicable in this situation since the button has a high ASB% who's hand range is wide. So going solely on the basis of this, you at least have a call on the flop based on your "overcards" to the board's 2nd card. Then, if an obvious c/r card doesn't hit (like a [img]/images/graemlins/diamond.gif[/img]) on the turn, you can bluff c/r representing the Ace. A [img]/images/graemlins/diamond.gif[/img] hitting on the turn would make it less likely to push him out of the hand if he's got a big diamond, or less likely to push him out with a hand like 4[img]/images/graemlins/spade.gif[/img] 4[img]/images/graemlins/club.gif[/img] because your c/r now looks like a semi-bluff with a flush draw.

Waiting until the turn is a bit more expensive but is more believable than a flop c/r. How often does this have to work to show a profit? Pot on the flop is 4.5 SB. You're spending 3 SB's to win 6. So, minus rake this has to work more than 1 in 3 times.

Also, FWIW my ASB is about 36% and I take it down most of the time on the flop when an Ace hits, whether I have one or not. Also, if my flop continuation bet gets called on an Ace-high flop, I'm usually done putting money in the pot unless the flop is pretty draw heavy. Obviously this is pretty player dependent too.