I could see his cards, but did I make the right decision

HoldingFolding · #1 02-13-2005, 04:47 AM

Satellite, 1st place only qualifies. Blinds 100/200. 5 left. CO is 1900, I'm at 2100. All his raises to date have been 2.5BB. He goes all in, SB folds. I put him on a medium pair, with the small probability that he has A-weak.

I'm holding A-J. What would you do [img]/images/graemlins/confused.gif[/img]
Would you do the same if it was a top three paid SNG [img]/images/graemlins/confused.gif[/img]

Scuba Chuck · #2 02-13-2005, 04:52 AM

Tell me more about the other players. What are their stacksizes compared to the two of you? How often has he been raising? How often compared to the others?

I sense you're thinking this is a bet that doesn't want to be called. Is that correct?

Finally, what is so attractive about AJ?

HoldingFolding · #3 02-13-2005, 08:00 AM

Two other players on about 1700, remaining player less than 1000. It was a very solid table everyone, including villain had been stealing about once an orbit, with no one really playing back.

I was fairly certain he had middle pocket pairs, so, if we factor in the blinds and allow for the fact that he might be holding Ax (less than J), I felt it was slightly EV positive.

There's nothing particularly attractive about A-J, but I spent some time in the time bank wondering whether having over twice the stack of my closest opponent in a winner takes all SnG wouldn't be very advantageous (outweighing the fact that 50% of the time I go out).

skipperbob · #4 02-13-2005, 08:46 AM

If your read is perfect, do you wanna race at this point? If it isn't perfect, you're toast...I don't think your odds are 50/50...more like 65/35 ?

bigredlemon · #5 02-13-2005, 09:35 AM

If you win a coinflip, you'll have a much stronger shot at first.
If you lose, you're pretty much out.

Villain isn't manic and stealing more than he should.

AJ is not a bad hand 5-handed

so, I guess this come down to: do you think you can outplay the table?

Scuba Chuck · #6 02-13-2005, 03:09 PM

I wouldn't be surprised if an ICM analysis proved this to be a close fold. Which is exactly how I feel about it. Close, but fold.

willie24 · #7 02-13-2005, 05:28 PM

[ QUOTE ]
I put him on a medium pair, with the small probability that he has A-weak.

[/ QUOTE ]

why?

[ QUOTE ]
I'm holding A-J. What would you do

[/ QUOTE ]

assuming full confidence in your read-that is- he ALWAYS has a small pp or Ax,(which i dont understand), i would call without thinking.

without a strong read, or- assuming that there is a chance he might also push with AQ or AK or a high PP, i would fold without thinking.

i would probably always fold in a game which paid the top 3.

USS Gut Shot · #8 02-13-2005, 06:41 PM

I agree with your analysis he is overbetting his marginal hand. If you get it heads up you will probably be in a coinflip or a nice fav against a weak Ace.

I think this is a tough/close decision. I would lean towards calling.

In a 3 payout SNG I would probably call if the stack were around even. If two other players were short stacked I would fold.

HoldingFolding · #9 02-13-2005, 09:24 PM

My thoughts were as follows: since 1st is the only place that counts by doubling up I have a good chance to dominate the table - I felt with close to half the chips I would have at least a 60% chance of winning. If it had been a regular SnG I would have folded. I called, he turned over 77 and some fool had taken all the aces, jacks, straight & flush cards out of the pack.

My opponent went on to win in fairly comfortable fashion. Conclusion: the operation was a success but the patient died.