What do you think of this play? - Page 3

johnnybeef · #21 02-09-2005, 01:36 AM

[ QUOTE ]
I have an opinion. I like the push.

Small stack wont get the blinds for another 2 hands. Meanwhile, you'll have to post 600 out of your 2100. Unless you are the one to knock him out, you'll have 1500 left and an uphill battle to 1st.

He only has to win 1 hand to survive for another round. If he does that, you will be crippled while you wait.

[/ QUOTE ]

I disagree, lets examine why we are playing this SNG...TO MAKE $. I think many of you who are saying push are thinking that there is a bracelet involved here. There isn't. Your number 1 priority is to score in this situation. That being said, i am a BIG believer of being extremely aggressive at this point of the sng as this is when people are unwilling to call a raise with just about any hand. IMO you need to hit the brakes for a hand or two.

USS Gut Shot · #22 02-09-2005, 01:40 AM

I like your play.

Of course, I have the phobia that I will be knocked out of every tourn I ever play with 88.

HoldingFolding · #23 02-09-2005, 01:42 AM

I think it's important to remember the payout structure. 5-3-2 meaning an actual profitability ratio 4-2-1 (subtracting out the stack). If you are in a potential coin flip situation as a smaller stack with 3 or 4 players remaining and still plenty of FE I think going all in every time is easily EV+.

Cheeseweasel · #24 02-09-2005, 01:45 AM

50_C_2 starting hands that your opponents can have. In other words, all possible 2-card combinations from the remaining 50 cards = 1225 combinations.

Daliman · #25 02-09-2005, 01:45 AM

[ QUOTE ]
Your number 1 priority is to score in this situation. That being said, i am a BIG believer of being extremely aggressive at this point of the sng as this is when people are unwilling to call a raise with just about any hand. IMO you need to hit the brakes for a hand or two.

[/ QUOTE ]

You do realize, of course, that you just contradicted yourself 2 times in 3 sentences there, don't you?

johnnybeef · #26 02-09-2005, 01:55 AM

[ QUOTE ]
[ QUOTE ]
Your number 1 priority is to score in this situation. That being said, i am a BIG believer of being extremely aggressive at this point of the sng as this is when people are unwilling to call a raise with just about any hand. IMO you need to hit the brakes for a hand or two.

[/ QUOTE ]

You do realize, of course, that you just contradicted yourself 2 times in 3 sentences there, don't you?

[/ QUOTE ]

sorry, i didnt proof read it, lets try again...i advocate very aggressive play in this stage of the sng, however folding here gives you the best possibility of making money which is why you are in the sng in the first place...better?

stripsqueez · #27 02-09-2005, 02:24 AM

i would always push

stripsqueez - chickenhawk

microbet · #28 02-09-2005, 02:24 AM

Well you can't turn over your cards online and this analysis is about chip EV not $EV, right? There is a big difference here, no?

But, Hero has huge FE so a push can't be too bad. Wouldn't SB normally fold some of the PP's that beat you? And if the big stack calls you with Ax or something you are in a great position to be the chip leader.

MagnoliasFM · #29 02-09-2005, 02:58 AM

I've never played in a $215, but from the perspective of a low-limit SNG player, the first instinct here is an obvious push, not just because of folding equity, but because the hands that will call you are approximately any pair, any ace, and any two face cards, making you a slight favorite/coinflip over the range of calling hands. This means that the only way you can lose by pushing is by losing two coinflips (1. BB or SB having a calling hand, 2. losing the showdown). The other roughly 3/4ths of the time, you either double up or %30 up.

At the $215 level, you lose the possibility of getting called by a worse hand, so it's not as clear. Since no one's taken the "fold" side of the argument yet, I think it should be considered. The main argument for folding is that if you push you're risking your guaranteed 3rd when you don't really have to. Given the 5-3-2 structure, the best strategy is to aim for either first or third. By pushing you're risking 4th to get either 1st or 2nd. By folding you can establish 3rd and then aim for 1st. Still, it's a really close call.

Irieguy · #30 02-09-2005, 03:18 AM

This is a fold.

There are a couple of reasons why:

First, if you fold here there's a chance the button will make a mistake and call. If he does, the SB will likely call and there is a chance that he will bust 2 players if both blinds catch the flop and decide to play "who's johnson is bigger?" If the blinds don't tangle, you're likely to be down to 3 and you are not in bad shape with regard to folding equity.

Second, the SB is very likely to raise here if it's passed around to him. That's a prime set-up for "who's Johnson is bigger?" between the blinds, and you obviously love your position if you get 3 handed that way. You also like your folding equity a lot if the BB wins an all-in coup there.

If the hand is just passed around to the BB and you have to post next hand, there are a lot of interesting permutations with that hand as well, and you stand to fare pretty well by staying out of the way there also.

The balance of goodness in equity permutations is clearly in favor of folding in my book. I can't prove it.

I like to be the most aggressive player 3-handed... but the wisest 4-handed.

Irieguy