Interesting AA post by Garland from medium stakes

I was just answering why we shouldn't push preflop. It just so happens I agree with the flop play.

Hoping your opponent has an unlikely AK or JJ is just too much for me.

[Mens Rea]

Huh? Unlikely why?

You can't put him on AK here? I'd certainly bet that. I'd also at least take a shot with JJ (which, by the way, would have worked in Villain's case here).

Also, you wouldn't check KK here?

[aggie]

There are 8 combinations of AK left. There are 6 combinations of TT and 6 more of JJ. There are only 3 combos of KK and 3 combos of QQ and of course 1 where we tie with AA.

We win - 20 times
we tie - 1 time
we lose - 6 times

Of course AK, TT, and JJ MIGHT fold preflop, but i find this doubtful

[gol4pro]

Why can't he have JJ/TT/AK here? IF he has AK, I think he's going to be able to outplay you on the turn, but I think you have to bet 2/3 on the flop here; then shut down.

[Woolygimp]

I'm also reposting this from the MSNL forum.

[ QUOTE ]

Ok to understand why a weaker line is better than a lead on this flop you have to put yourself in the villains shoes. Based on the information Garland provided the Villain is your average weak/tight.

Both Garland and Villain have deep stacks. Villain raises to 10, then Garland (correctly) re-raises him to 50.

If YOU were the Villain what would you do here (with deep stacks) holding KK?

I'd fold. I really would, considering the stack sizes. Some of the looser players would push. Most "Weak/Tight" Players here would think folding PF to be far too weak, while pushing against a very likely AA as not a very prudent play.

So he calls.
[Keep in mind hes 16% VPIP and a very weak/tight player. It is VERY unlikely he's making this play with 45s, j10s, 22, 1010, or JJ]

Now lets assume villain called with 45s, j10s, 22, 1010, or JJ.

Villain says to himself, "Ok, This guy just re-raised me 50 preflop and when the flop landed high he checked it to me..." Do you REALLY think your average weak/tight player is going to bet into a very likely C/R against another deep stack?

<font color="red"> Would you guys really bet this if checked to with a hand like JJ/1010 or 22? I think thats far too loose... Guys raises you to 50 PF and then checks to you on the flop? Cmon... It smells fishy. </font>

Regardless, understand this guy is just as scared of Garlands hand as Garland is of his. In fact less so, since this guy (again) is a weak/tight.

Guys I implore you to consider stack sizes because it is the most important factor. Shortstacked players are more likely to make moves and are less scared of their plays, for right reason. &lt;Most of those reason's revolving over building a large pot and implied odds&gt;

This player is not making a move here with anything except QQ-KK-AK. He would bet AK, I'll give you that BUT again he won't have AK often enough here to warrant a lead.

I agree 100% with Garlands play, and ask people who disagree to strongly reconsider the play and understand ALL of the factors before making an argument.

[/ QUOTE ]

Also play on 1/2 and the 2/4 tables is very different than the very aggressive play on the 5/10 10/20 and 50/100 tables. So keep that in mind, and this isn't shorthanded.

[Mens Rea]

Estimation -

If I am villain in this hand, and Garland checks the flop to me, I am betting from 1/2 pot to full pot 95% of the time with AK, JJ, 10 10, or 78s.

Edited to add: Granted, I hear you about Villain's possible holdings, but he's got AK or JJ here more than often enough for me not to just give up the pot.

[Woolygimp]

[ QUOTE ]
Estimation -

If I am villain in this hand, and Garland checks the flop to me, I am betting from 1/2 pot to full pot 95% of the time with AK, JJ, 10 10, or 78s&gt;

[/ QUOTE ]

I should check monsters more often.

[aggie]

[ QUOTE ]
Would you guys really bet this if checked to with a hand like JJ/1010 or 22? I think thats far too loose... Guys raises you to 50 PF and then checks to you on the flop? Cmon... It smells fishy.


[/ QUOTE ]

Keep in mind that if i'm villian, i'm more inclined to bet this flop with JJ/TT/22 than i am to bet it with AK/KK/QQ. When i have 22, betting is the only way i can win.

[Woolygimp]

[ QUOTE ]
[ QUOTE ]
Would you guys really bet this if checked to with a hand like JJ/1010 or 22? I think thats far too loose... Guys raises you to 50 PF and then checks to you on the flop? Cmon... It smells fishy.


[/ QUOTE ]

Keep in mind that if i'm villian, i'm more inclined to bet this flop with JJ/TT/22 than i am to bet it with AK/KK/QQ. When i have 22, betting is the only way i can win.

[/ QUOTE ]

Aggie, You missed your set and your facing a large hand on a large board. You aren't the least bit worried your walking into a trap c/r?

[Mens Rea]

Sure. I'm worried about it. I love to know if I'm getting trapped. So I bet.