In the library with the

[Nomad84]

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Here is my/her question.

Having zero knowledge of the types of games but precise knowledge of the win rate (for what most would agree is a fairly large sample), how accurately can we estimate her S-D and/or confidence level ?

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I think that a typical SD for limit holdem is around 15BB/100 hands. It won't be precise. Hers could be higher or lower, but given your description of her play (not pushing marginal edges, etc.) I would expect her SD to be lower if anything. In other words, I think we can safely assume that 15BB/100 is a worst-case scenario SD.

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Using the 3-6 holdem as an example (since it has the largest sample size) . . .

3- 6 limit holdem: 145,000 hands, W/R 2.07 big bets/100 hands


What is the consensus estimate of the following -

1. Likelyhood that this person is at least a 1 big bet/100 hand winning player ?

- I am under the assumption that this is a virtual certainty.

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Using the 15BB/100 estimate for SD, I get 99.7%

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2. Likelyhood that she is at least a 1.25 big bet/100 hand winning player ?

- I have this as upwards of 95% but I am very open to the idea that I am dead wrong about this one.

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I get 98.1%

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3. 1.5 b-b/100 ?

- Far more likely than not (75% ?) but this is the one about which I'll not be at all suprised to find I was mistaken in my estimate.

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I get 92.6%

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4. If we can formulate a reasonable guess as to her S-D that would be great as well.

- If it helps, she is nothing if not solid though by her own admission somewhat risk averse; her win rate is (and likely will continue to be) held down by this unwillingness to push small edges.

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See above. Also, here is a SD poll in the archives that shows that the median SD for the respondants was about 15 or 16 BB/100.

I hope this gives you some idea of what her true winrate might be. It would be good if someone could verify my numbers just to be sure.