My doooces

[crownjules]

[ QUOTE ]

Flop: (4 ppl, 13 sb) T [img]/images/graemlins/heart.gif[/img]7 [img]/images/graemlins/heart.gif[/img]7 [img]/images/graemlins/spade.gif[/img]

I check, UTG checks, MP2 checks, MP3 bets... what do I do?

[/ QUOTE ]

I would fold. At this point, the pot is so bloated that you probably can not force UTG and MP2 out by raising. Calling is the worst possible move.

grunching

You're in the SB. Throw it away. Calling this is worse than calling 3 cold from the button.

[ QUOTE ]
since when are 5:1 and 20:4 different?

[/ QUOTE ]

Add implied odds to the first figure. Adding the same implied odds to the second figure makes it not as big.

[bozlax]

Since everybody else is answering the question you asked, I'm going to answer the un-asked question...what DID you do? I think you raised, checked through the turn and rivered a 2.

[Aaron W.]

Nobody has asked the right question. Are LAG and bad player going to spew postflop? Is LAG the type to raise/3-bet with KK when there's an ace on the board? Is bad player going to call down any pair? These are the questions you need to answer when considering the implied odds of this hand.

With no information on these things, a call here is a little bad, but I don't think it's terrible.

[Paxosmotic]

[ QUOTE ]
You're putting in 2.5SB if it gets called and 3.5SB if it gets capped. Say it gets capped 1/3 of the time, so you're putting in on average 2.8SB.

Since sets hold up about 75% of the time, you're ~10:1 to be best by the river). So unless we're fairly confident the pot will be >=28SB or 14BB (and IMO we can't be here), I'd dump it.

[/ QUOTE ]
This post needs to be quoted every 5 posts or so just to remind everyone what a correct answer looks like. The only number that matters in this whole silly exercise is 14. If the pot will end up larger than 14BBs, it's a call. If it will end up smaller than 14BBs, it's a fold.

[Reqtech]

if that's the case, with a raiser and a reraiser with 4 to the flop capped, we're going to have 8 big bets on the flop. I don't think that it's a big stretch to for the pot to be 14 big bets by the river with 2 players that really like their hand and one other who is calling along.

[droolie]

Fold pf. Tempting but just not enough of a margin to take a shot at your set.

Fold the flop. You're spewing by getting involved in this hand postflop. Getting this entire crew to fold when most of them have two overcards to the board and one of them very likely has an overpair seems like a longshot. You will most likely need to take this to SD and I don't like your chances of dodging half the deck on the turn and river if you're miraculously ahead.

Now if your pattern mapper is working and you're spiking a river 2[img]/images/graemlins/club.gif[/img] I love it!

[gopnik]

it's close but I lean towards folding because MP3 is on your right and you cannot trap if you flop your set.
Plust UTG might cap.

[K-mac]

[ QUOTE ]
[ QUOTE ]
You're putting in 2.5SB if it gets called and 3.5SB if it gets capped. Say it gets capped 1/3 of the time, so you're putting in on average 2.8SB.

Since sets hold up about 75% of the time, you're ~10:1 to be best by the river). So unless we're fairly confident the pot will be >=28SB or 14BB (and IMO we can't be here), I'd dump it.

[/ QUOTE ]
This post needs to be quoted every 5 posts or so just to remind everyone what a correct answer looks like. The only number that matters in this whole silly exercise is 14. If the pot will end up larger than 14BBs, it's a call. If it will end up smaller than 14BBs, it's a fold.

[/ QUOTE ]

I have an idea as to how Redd did that math, but why is 14 BB the important number in this problem?
Is 14 BB by showdown the size the pot needs to be for us to break even?