5-10 NL AA hand facing an overbet

[aggie]

Why would villian check 1010,JJ,or J10 on the river?

[gomberg]

well, if he puts hero on a missed draw or overpair, then he may think that the missed draw or even overpair is more likely to bet than to call a bet, hence checking to induce a bluff. It all depends on how likely he puts hero on a missed draw...

You've never checked a set on the river oop vs. a villain you're sure is drawing that missed? Or an overaggressive bluffing type when shown weakness?

[aggie]

That makes sense, and no, that is not something i do often enough (leak?)...

but opponent descreiption:

[ QUOTE ]
Mainly a calling station, but has shown some agression post flop. Haven't seen anything tricky from MP2 yet.


[/ QUOTE ]

Leads me to believe that opponent is not capable of making this play. I think opponents most likely hands are QQ, and AJ....I think a value bet is in order since villian will have pot odds to look hero up (he's a calling station for christ sake!)...

Either way, i definitely think it's a close call

[ShortySaurus]

i'm pretty sure you are ahead...do you think villain will lay down top pair? Do you think he will pay off with just a pair? If you think villain won't pay off with a pair then just check....if u think he can't lay down his QQ or AJ then value bet it.

[jerrybai125]

yea, come on shorty, do u ever look into stack sizes and how big the pot will be on later streets

[TonyBlair]

[ QUOTE ]
min-raising the turn pot commits the hero. If you are going to raise it has to be on the flop

[/ QUOTE ]

Are you raising the flop for info? Raising on the flop to price out draws commits too.

I call the flop and take it from there. I'm not committed at that point. If I know the opponent, I might commit on the flop with a big reraise.

[jerrybai125]

How about pushing the turn, your opponent only has 500 behind, and that turn bet does seem like weakness. There are a lot of cards that can hurt you on the river and it seems like you are going to call the 500 on a river blank anyways.

[gomberg]

Good point - didn't read that description before posting my reply. I think it's a slim value bet then, but it's close as you said.

Something I've been looking at lately is aggression factor by street for opponent and that has let me play the river a little differently against certain opponents than I normally would. Now time to notice this type of behaviour w/out PT [img]/images/graemlins/wink.gif[/img]

[ShortySaurus]

=[

[ShortySaurus]

i agree with the guy up 75k in a month in a half on party 1000