A new theory on Negraneau challenge matches

[tipperdog]

Like others, I've wondered why Daniel would issue his challenge. The widely-held consensus (S&M, Mike Sexton and others) is that Daniel takes the worst of it in these heads-up games, because he's allowing challengers to choose their best games. But even if you think Daniel's tournament heads-up experience gives him an edge, it's impossible to believe these are the most +EV games he can find.

So, why does he do it?

Thus far, explanations have included:

1. It's all a publicity stunt for the Wynn.
This has been pretty well debunked. The Wynn is not backing Daniel and that's that.

2. It's out-of-control ego.
Surely, there's some ego involved, but there must be more. If it's only ego, why not just play in the big game and try to bust Doyle, Chip, Jen, Phil, et. al?

All this leads to my very simple explanation. Why the challenge? Because it's the only game he can play.

Presumably, Daniel's contract as "ambassador" for the Wynn prohibits him from playing cash games at other area casinos (and possible out-of-area, as well). The Wynn people thought that Daniel would draw the big games from the Bellagio to the Wynn, but that simply hasn't happened. (Obviously, I'm not privy to their contract terms, but both Daniel and the Wynn have hinted that they have an "exclusive" relationship.) As a result of his exclusive deal with the Wynn, there are simply no high-stakes cash games in which Daniel can play!

So, what's a high-stakes poker action junkie to do? Daniel's answer seems as good as any I can imagine.

I would bet that had the Vegas high-stakes action shifted to the Wynn, Daniel would never have issued his open challenge. Instead, he'd be a regular in the Wynn 1K-2K or 2K-4K games. Unfortunately for him, these games just don't exist.

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In response to the inevitable questions, do I really know anything? No, I'm just speculating.

In respone to the inevitable follow-ups, why do I care? I don't really. But I love pokah, pokah is nice and I spend way too much time thinking about things like this.

Discuss if you're interested.