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Old 12-25-2005, 05:46 PM
d10 d10 is offline
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Join Date: Jan 2005
Location: Ft Campbell, KY
Posts: 313
Default Interesting situation, check my math

I flop an OESD in live play and check it. It's checked around and the turn card is dealt, which completes my straight, but last to act says "I never checked." So according to the rules, the turn card is pulled to the side, flop action is completed, the river card is dealt as the turn, then the original turn card is shuffled back into the deck and another card is dealt. Obviously I was pissed off that my card was returned to the deck because some retard kept hiding his cards and wasn't paying attention, but I started to wonder how this would affect my odds. My odds on the turn are easy enough to figure out, they decrease slightly from 8/47 to 7/46, but the river is a bit more complicated. There are 25 cards left in the deck and I know at least one of them makes my hand, so I put my odds at (1/25)+(7/45)=44/225. So it seems that by the river my chances increase from the standard OESD of 31.45% to 33.25%, so the situation is actually better than if the last to act had been paying attention and protected his action. As the hand turned out, the original turn card came right back out on the river (good job dealer) and I won the pot, but the players and the dealer made comments suggesting that I was retarded for chasing knowing that one of my outs was missing on the turn.
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