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Old 12-19-2005, 12:37 PM
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Default Theory of Deadweight Information Loss

Theory of Deadweight Information Loss --

Purpose: To distinguish one line of wagering as superior to a parallel line when the end result between the two (total amounts wagered by all parties, the pot size) is the same.

The following must be in effect for two wagering lines to be considered parallel:
I - All action for both lines must take place within one betting round (one street)
II - All action for both lines must result in the exact same total wagers and total pot size at the end of the betting round.

The Theory of Deadweight Information Loss:
Given two parallel wagering lines, the superior line is the one that reveals the most information about the opponents' hand prior to him revealing his cards.

In this fashion, a player gains two benefits:

A - The player gains more information in order to make the proper decision for this hand.

B - The player gains more information on how an opponent plays his cards, often just before those cards are revealed. This information is valuable for other hands in the future.

In many cases benefit 'A' is not enough to dissuade you from making the incorrect decision; but it has provided information none-the-less.

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For instance, consider the following NLHE example:
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Hero -- Holding AA from the Button with 40xBB
Villain -- Holding KJ from the SB with 25xBB

Hero - AA raises 3xBB…
…Villain - KJ calls from SB.

flop K J 4 (7 BB pot)

Villain leads out with a 3BB bet…
…Action to Hero is 3BB to call 10BB

Two scenarios:
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1) Hero raises all-in ; Villain calls.
2) Hero raises to 12xBB ; Villain pushes all in ; Hero calls

Even though in the second scenario the Hero was provided extra information about the strength of the Villains hand, the pot odds and the strength of his cards necessitated a call.

Consider that when a player is making an incorrect guess as to his opponent’s strength, (as in the above case) he has an 'Evidence Threshold' (ET) that is always 1.00. When that level is breeched, he realizes his mistake because of the overwhelming evidence at hand, and changes his judgment. In this case, Scenario 1 represented a ET impact of .02 (only 2% evidence out of 100% needed to persuade Hero that he is beaten) Scenario 2 represented an ET impact of .22 at the second decision point ( An extra 20%, but Hero still needs 100% to lay it down, so he calls)

So we made an extra 20%, but then pissed it away. Well it didn’t just disappear.

Similar to a dead-weight loss of mutual benefits in economics, there are betting lines that result in a dead-weight loss of information – Accumulation against the ET that may be useless to the short-term outcome, but is gleaned for future reference.

Additionally, good players accumulate many small bits of information by obeying the Theory of Deadweight Information Loss in choosing their betting patterns, and in this manner accumulate more knowledge about their opponents which results in a greater likelihood of a 'threshold breech.'

A player who avoids deadweight loss of information in his play will become sensitive more quickly to an opponent, and will better be able to judge his later actions.

All of this is just a restatement of a lot of obvious stuff, but I think there is something to be said for information gathering in every nook and cranny you can find… including making sure your betting is getting the maximum information out of your opponent for use in this and later hands..

I have a few more scenarios to post later on, involving weaker hands and how accumulation of small amounts of information that might otherwise have been missed can lead to laying down hands to a trap that you sniffed coming, and lead to pushing a marginal edge to cause your opponent to lay off a hand. Both are things we do every day, but it is always a keen idea to explore those habits and better understand them.

I appreciate your thoughts;

Keith
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