niner, niner

[Buckmulligan]

The more I think about this, I dislike the monsters under the bed on the turn more and more and think it may have cost us several BB. Have we considered the fact that SB appears to be hanging around? I'm probably more than 50% sure we are ahead on the turn, and if not, I'm definitely more than 30% sure.
More importantly, there are ten bets in the pot on the flop. That's a big pot that I don't think many donks at all would check through.

[milesdyson]

[ QUOTE ]
More importantly, there are ten bets in the pot on the flop. That's a big pot that I don't think many donks at all would check through.

[/ QUOTE ]
i don't see how this means anything.

and buzz - he wouldn't possibly pull a turn raise with JJ, so that river didn't change his hand. and yeah, AK bets the flop, i didnt suspect him to 3-bet me preflop with AQ, so i really expected seeing KK a majority of the time here.

[BoogerFace]

[ QUOTE ]
only a true newb fish would think i wanted the flop to check through. congrats [img]/images/graemlins/smile.gif[/img]


[/ QUOTE ]

Do a win a t-shirt or something? [img]/images/graemlins/grin.gif[/img]

Even though his pfr is 8%, his range could easily include AK--there are 9 of them vs 1 AA and 1 KK. I think this table has turned you w/t, Miles. The J on the river could suck if he had JJ.

[MrWookie47]

I don't know about you, but I count 3 AA, 3 KK, 9 AK, and 12 (max) AQ. I also think AK should be discounted by checking that flop. Very few players check AK here. Not all that many players 3bet AQ, either. If I was giving weights to the relative probabilities of each hand, I'd go with something like 10 KK, 1 AA, 2 AK, and 3 AQ based on how much (and how little) we know about the player.

[ QUOTE ]
I don't know about you, but I count 3 AA, 3 KK, 9 AK, and 12 (max) AQ. I also think AK should be discounted by checking that flop. Very few players check AK here. Not all that many players 3bet AQ, either. If I was giving weights to the relative probabilities of each hand, I'd go with something like 10 KK, 1 AA, 2 AK, and 3 AQ based on how much (and how little) we know about the player.

[/ QUOTE ]

Yeah right. I'm stoned again--3 AA, 3 KK. That is a good point about checking the flop as last to act with AK. That does lower AK a bit. AQ could be played that way, but we go back to the unlikely 3-betting pre-flop with it. Herm.

[adsman]

Sets over sets are rare, but when they happen you can make/lose a lot of bets on them. That's when reads and taking into consideration the table conditions and even the site conditions can be very helpful. It's looking at a certain situation with certain information available and coming to a rational conclusion without letting your ego get in the way. I play at Absolute as well and I'm fully with Miles on this play. I think that he played it very well.

[A_K]

Grunch.

[ QUOTE ]

Turn: (5 BB) A[img]/images/graemlins/diamond.gif[/img] <font color="#0000FF">(3 players)</font>
SB checks, <font color="#CC3333">Hero bets</font>, <font color="#CC3333">MP raises</font>, SB calls, Hero says, "omg <font color="red">there's a monster under my bed</font>" and calls.


[/ QUOTE ]
FYP. I would 3-bet that turn. You are ahead of lots of hands here that play the same as KK -- slowplayed AK, AQ, maybe AJs. If he caps, then WA/WB time.

[edited to town my post down a bit.]

[MrWookie47]

If he caps, it's not WA/WB time. Sure, hero is likely either way ahead or way behind, but that's not just what that acronym means. It means that hero is just about as likely to be WA as he is to be WB. If villain caps, it's more like wa/WB, in which case hero just calls down, rather than doing something like betting the river to prevent villain from checking behind.

[A_K]

[ QUOTE ]
If he caps, it's not WA/WB time. Sure, hero is likely either way ahead or way behind, but that's not just what that acronym means. It means that hero is just about as likely to be WA as he is to be WB. If villain caps, it's more like wa/WB, in which case hero just calls down, rather than doing something like betting the river to prevent villain from checking behind.

[/ QUOTE ]

You're absolutely right. I meant to say that I would call down if capped. And not like it very much.