NFL 12/11/05 Seems Soft - Tell me why I'm wrong...

[phillydilly]

Looking at the pending weekend's games, I see a bunch of lines I like, when this happens, I figure Vegas is smarter than me and I'm in for an ass whooping, so I'd appreciate your help in telling me why vegas is smarter than me...

CHI+6 @ PIT
I think this may have been discussed, but the bears seem like a great bet, especially getting points.

OAK-3 @ NYJ
the Jets offense is non existant, Oak is bad, but NYJ is absolutely horrible. I also see Oak with some big play ability.

IND-7.5 @ JAX
I think all the talk of Jax being the stumbling block to INDY has lowered the line, I think 10 or 11 is closer to where it should be. Either way, INDY just steamrolls everyone.

HOU+6.5 @ TEN
Two bad teams, I'll take the bad team getting nearly a touchdown

SF+15.5 @ SEA
15.5 is A LOT in the NFL. SF/SEA last game was decided by 2 pts. I think Sea's blow out in philly is inflating this spread, but not by much, any thoughts on this one?

BAL +14 @ DEN
Again, 2TDs is a lot. DEN has beat 3 teams by more than 14, 2 of those are the Jets and Philly, two very bad teams. Bal's offense will struggle, but if the weather in Denver is lousy, could help keep it low scoring

DET+5.5 @ GB
The lions are bad, GB is horrible. The Lions defense has played decent, and should take advantage of farve turnovers, lambeau doesn' have the effect it once did. The lions may be able to win this one straight up, with the points, i really like it.

CIN-12 vs CLE
Cleveland is bad, and Cincy doesn't take their foot off the gas. Last game Cin won by 14.

Alright, I like all these games, some a little more than others, tell me why i'm wrong

hhmmm...... a lot of road teams......

Off the top of my head ... Oakland is talking about starting Tuisasasopopololo instead of Collins. I would never touch that game.

[ QUOTE ]
I think all the talk of Jax being the stumbling block to INDY has lowered the line, I think 10 or 11 is closer to where it should be. Either way, INDY just steamrolls everyone.

[/ QUOTE ]

Jax' D is far better than Cinci's as they proved at the RCA Dome in week 3. I was pleasantly surprised to see this line at 7.5/8 instead of 6, 6.5 or 7. Garrard proved himself somewhat up to the task and I expect Del Rio to authorize a game plan consistent with his offense's strengths. This is probably a good spot for correlated parlays of Indy -7.5/over 42 and Jax +7.5/under 42.

[Page Jacobson]

Its possible that Dungy will take his foot off the gas these last few games.

I love the Bengals. They're on a roll and the Browns are just playing out the string.

[scott8]

I found this thread interesting because I didn't like much at first glance this week. However, I agree that a lot of dogs look tempting.

[jedinite]

Just some quick thoughts

[ QUOTE ]
CHI+6 @ PIT

[/ QUOTE ]
Opened at Chicago +4 and is being bet up by people hammering on Pitt. If you like it now, wait as it might get up to seven.

[ QUOTE ]
OAK-3 @ NYJ

[/ QUOTE ]
Two factors you are overlooking, that Oakland is terrible on the road and is probably playing for next year. However with the performance of Road Favorites this year, I can't argue that bad. Personally doesn't look like a lot of value here.

[ QUOTE ]
IND-7.5 @ JAX

[/ QUOTE ]
In my opinion, if Indy's smart they lose this game on purpose. I don't think they'd do something like that, but it would help them out tremendously to lose I think - they get to rest their starters for the playoffs, they get to tone down practice a notch, they get to start focusing on the post-season instead of preparing for meaningless games to break a meaningless record. I'm not saying they take a dive, specifically, but I think there's enough of a positive to losing that it might be a factor, at the subconcious level if nothing else (way out on a limb here).

[ QUOTE ]
HOU+6.5 @ TEN

[/ QUOTE ]
Houston may be playing for the Reggie Bush sweepstakes and may want to start their third string to look to build for the future.

[ QUOTE ]
SF+15.5 @ SEA

[/ QUOTE ]
This spread looks pretty appropriate. Seattle is going to want to win this one quick so they can rest their starters. I wouldn't be suprised to see this a four or five touchdown lead for Seattle at halftime or early third quarter. But I wouldn't bet on either side.

[ QUOTE ]
BAL +14 @ DEN

[/ QUOTE ]
This looks like a pretty solid underdog play, but we'll see. Too early for me to weigh in solidly on the value of Baltimore, but I can see this as a low-scoring affair.

[ QUOTE ]
DET+5.5 @ GB

[/ QUOTE ]
I like Detroit here as well.

[ QUOTE ]
CIN-12 vs CLE

[/ QUOTE ]
Cleveland does have the 10th ranked pass defense (16th overall) which should help to keep this game lower-scoring than many of the recent Cinci shootouts. I expect this to be run-oriented on both sides of the ball. Again, too early to comment on value, just wanted to point out that Cleveland's defense isn't so terrible

[McGahee]

The Bears offense has not driven more than 1 yard for a TD in 3 games. Steelers should shut them down rather handily. 6 may look like a lot w/ the Bears defense, but I see a 16-6 game personally, especially with Pittsburgh needing a win.
I also hate the Colts & 49ers but I like the rest of your picks.

What does everyone think about NE -3.5 @ Buffalo? Even though NE will undoubtedly win the pathetic AFC East, I'm starting to think they're feeling the crunch to get their sh** together before the playoffs hit.

Last time NE played Buffalo at home they looked pathetic, and that was at home, SF plays some teams tough at home but gets drilled on the road which explains the 2 point win before, add that with Seattle running over bad teams at home and I like Seattle there.

I could see Detroit, Baltimore and Houston getting drilled but I dont like betting those games unless I tease the favorites. I think Houstons the best of the 3 there with the spread.

Jacksonville seems to be the only team with the right formula to slow down Indy, either way though I dont like betting that game.

Oakland bet is decent but they are notorious for not showing up at all for games sometimes like they did at home against Miami.

I have no clue about the Bears/Steelers game other then it should be ridiculously low scoring.

I like the Cincy game I think but I also liked the Colts to win big at home against the Browns and for some reason the won 13-6.

Of course you prolly should disregard all of this because every game I say I like the least on these forums win and the ones I love lose. Ive been laying heavy teasers this year more then anything.

[kdog]

And I mean STICKS OUT is a Pittsburgh/Indy teaser.
I know you only cross one key number here but with the Bears most games are low scoring and I really feel Pittsburgh wins this game.

As for Indy...provided they play their starters in all remaining games they will win them all by at least 2 which is all you need here. Every game. Period. Including the playoffs.