Loosey Goosey?

SheridanCat · #1 09-03-2005, 08:33 PM

Okay, I haven't posted a hand anywhere for a long time. I have a hard time finding anything interesting in my play worth posting. But here's a hand that came up tonight.

A bit of background. I had been at the table for about 30 hands. The table was surprisingly tight with a lot of 2 and 3 way pots. On the orbit prior to this, when I was on the button, it was folded to me and I raised with 99. The BB then folded to my flop bet after he checked.

So, I'm on the button again. I should note that all of the BB's bets and raises are very fast.

PokerStars $3/$6 Limit Hold'em Ring (9 handed)

Preflop: Hero is Button with A[img]/images/graemlins/diamond.gif[/img], K[img]/images/graemlins/club.gif[/img].
6 folds, Hero raises, 1 fold, Big blind raises, Hero raises, Big blind calls

Flop: (11.34 SB) T[img]/images/graemlins/diamond.gif[/img], 3[img]/images/graemlins/club.gif[/img], Q[img]/images/graemlins/club.gif[/img] (2 players)
Big blind bets, Hero raises, Big blind raises, Hero calls

Turn: (9.17 BB) 9[img]/images/graemlins/diamond.gif[/img] (2 players)
Big blind bets, Hero calls

River: (11.17 BB) Q[img]/images/graemlins/spade.gif[/img] (2 players)
Big blind bets, Hero calls

Final Pot: $65 ($2 rake)

Results not shown

I called after thinking for a few seconds about something we discussed on this forum about a week ago.

Thoughts? Did I play too loose on my later calls? How about the river call?

Regards,

T

Pov · #2 09-03-2005, 10:22 PM

Personally, I don't usually cap this pre-flop but I think there are a lot of valid reasons to do so, so I'm fine with it. With a gutshot, a 3-flush, two overcards and position I like your flop raise. When bb 3-bets then leads the turn I put him on AA, KK, QQ or AQ. This gives Hero a very poor equity of around 14% but the pot is offering 10:1 and I think Villain is stuck paying us off if an offsuit J hits so I like the call here.

This river call is what you're posting about I presume. In the heat of battle I'd probably look at the $60 in the pot and call as well, but on paper I think you can safely fold this hand. The only hand I can conceive of villain having that you can beat is AJ and I'd put the odds of that below the 12:1 you're getting - A[img]/images/graemlins/club.gif[/img]J[img]/images/graemlins/club.gif[/img] is the only hand I think I could play this way as the villain that doesn't have you beaten and I probably wouldn't have 3-bet with that hand either (though I might have lead after adding an OESD on the turn).

So in the end I can only really cast doubt on the river call, but 5 BB's sure seems like a lot to lose with Ace high . . . [img]/images/graemlins/frown.gif[/img]

SheridanCat · #3 09-03-2005, 11:37 PM

Excellent insights, Pov. You have analyzed it a lot better than I did at the time. I'll follow up with results and my thought process tomorrow.

Regards,

T

Pov · #4 09-04-2005, 04:18 AM

[ QUOTE ]
Excellent insights, Pov. You have analyzed it a lot better than I did at the time. I'll follow up with results and my thought process tomorrow.

Regards,

T

[/ QUOTE ]

It's a lot better than I would have analyzed it at the time too. [img]/images/graemlins/wink.gif[/img]

Kurn, son of Mogh · #5 09-04-2005, 12:45 PM

How about the river call?

I rarely bluff-raise the river, but this looks like a good spot for it.

#6 09-04-2005, 04:04 PM

what hands do you beat on the river? i like the entire hand other than the river.

SheridanCat · #7 09-04-2005, 04:14 PM

Thanks to Kurn & Whiteshirt. I'll give up my thoughts a bit later along with the results. The bluff raise would have been interesting. I've done it but only against players I know well to be tight and able to make those "awesome" laydowns. And there are few of those left these days - though it probably works better online than live.

Regards,

T

#8 09-04-2005, 06:46 PM

tie AK
loose to any pocket pair - AQ AT A9
KQ KJ KT K9
any Q
JT J9 J8

you can beat AJ, weak A (A8 or lower)

SheridanCat · #9 09-04-2005, 08:48 PM

I felt the BB's preflop reraise was a "resteal" attempt, so I wasn't truly thinking he had a big hand at that point, thus my cap. I based that assessment on the fact that I "stole" earlier with my 99. I have no read on this player except that I raised his BB first in last round. So, my cap preflop may have been suspect, but I felt I was ahead.

Throughout the play of the hand he bet and raised very quickly - as if he had the "auto" button on. While I don't give a lot of credence to online tells, this one really felt like "strong means weak" to me. This was an extension of my read on his preflop resteal. I just didn't feel anything on the board justified his aggressive play.

When I got to the river is when I really had to think clearly about the hand. There are a lot of scare cards out there. He knows that, I'm thinking. I've shown aggression early on, so I obviously have something. If I were him, I might be inclined to throttle back and check, hoping for a bluff at the pot so I can check-raise. He bets out though.

There are 12 big bets in the pot. Could he be bluffing? I have to be pretty sure to fold. I hover on the fold button, and then I think about the post about making big laydowns preflop and loose calls on the river. I also thought about a bunch of posts from Clarkmeister about calling on the river with a bare ace.

Obviously, I called. I called because I was getting 12:1 and I don't think there's any way I can be that certain he's not bluffing.

He showed A[img]/images/graemlins/club.gif[/img] 7[img]/images/graemlins/club.gif[/img] for a missed flush.

Now, I'd like to know how Kurn came up with the idea of a bluff raise here. It would have been great.

Thanks all.

Regards,

T

Pov · #10 09-04-2005, 09:05 PM

[ QUOTE ]
Now, I'd like to know how Kurn came up with the idea of a bluff raise here. It would have been great.

[/ QUOTE ]

The bluff raise is to fold him if he's holding AK for a split or a hand like AA or KK or A[img]/images/graemlins/club.gif[/img]T[img]/images/graemlins/club.gif[/img] that might fold when the Q pairs on the board - i.e. a better hand that thinks it just got ruined. The bluff need only work a very small percentage of the time with such a big pot. Here a bluff raise would just have resulted in a missed draw folding (well maybe he would have frustration called it I guess, but that's not why it's a good idea).

That your raising of this player's bb was back-to-back is very significant IMO - it certainly made a big difference to his play from the previous hand you cite. Regardless, it just goes to show how a paper fold can be over-ruled profitably with a good read *when the pot is large*. Without this read though - despite the result, I still think folding is probably the right play most of the time with raising being just slightly behind.

edit: Of course your "30 hands" and other things inferred what you were getting at throughout your post, but when I was analyzing this last night I took the provided info to mean the opposite - this was an opponent who *didn't* put up a fight against a steal or when he missed.