So I folded AK on the bubble

[curtains]

Yeah I fold QQ here too, but posters have to be very careful not to extrapolate these folding QQ situations into those where you shouldn't fold it, as they are extremely rare.

[chisness]

s I think about it, I see that QQ could be trouble, especially if he's not a maniac.

What if SB had 960 and big stack had 4090? What should be our range in that case? Maybe that's where the QQ becomes correct.

[chisness]

Why would UTG push any 2 here? He knows he's almost certain to be playing against the SB for the entire pot.

I think micro's suggestion that he has 22+, A2+, K2+, Q9+ is quite accurate.

[Scorpion Man]

what were the blinds.

[microbet]

This is an interesting hand from UTG's point of view.

Button will obviously be very tight. If button folds, SB will call with pretty much anything. If you put SB on calling with any two there, it doesn't make the tiniest bit of difference what BB does.

For UTG you need a mediocre hand for it to be +$EV, but over a very large range it doesn't make much difference.

Eventhough T9 looks like a good push from UTG, I think they will want a bit better on average.

edit: What do y'all do here from UTG's position? Without either a monster or complete trash I think the $EV difference is so slight that you might go with what is best for your table image.

[Scorpion Man]

OK too much agreement here so I might as well throw in a dissenting view as food for thought. I don't think its a no brainer fold. I am after EV, not minimizing variance. While I agree you fold here if you just want to see the money, I dont agree that its necessarily the biggest positive EV play. If you play and win you are the clear chip leader. This materially increases your chance of first which is (i am not sure on party) something like 2.5x third and 65% better than second. You have <1% chance of being well behind to the raiser (particularly given your description that he is using his chips). I am not sure how big the blinds were but they had to be big enough to give you pot odds to call with AK against any pair. So...you are at worst getting correct odds to become a big leader and at best already well ahead...BB will do this with a whole lotta hands you dominate -- Ax and Kx.

If SB or BB happen to come along and you both bust you still get third. That is not a huge probability but it helps as well.

Not knowing what the blind were makes it tougher to evaluate but I have said my piece.

[lastchance]

Yeah, you're all right. I've seen way too many idiots around. Most SB's call 100% of hands (assuming Hero doesn't pick KK, AA, or something like that). But again, ICM calc would be really nice here.

Damn, I need to get (or make) Eastbay prog.

[HiatusOver]

Is everyone still in agreement that this is a clear fold? Scorpion had some good points

[The Yugoslavian]

The blinds aer 150/300...it's in the OP.

As for whether it's a fold or not....I can't imagine AK being a call no matter what UTG's range is - it's not really very close. As curtains said, being on the bubble with such a short stack forces you to fold almost every hand here. I'd call with AA,KK but I'm not sure about QQ...I'd certainly fold JJ.

Yugoslav

[Scorpion Man]

I don't think its a clear call by any means. But I also think its clearly not an easy fold. I ran some math and you can argue with the specifics, but the general conclusions is that its about a push, so to me that says its not a clear anything.

Assume the following -- 50.30.20 payout.
If you fold this hand your chances of finishing
1=20%
2=40%
3=25%
4=15%

If you call your chances are

1=40%
2=20%
3=5%
4=35%

These were the first numbers I picked out of the air, and as it happens the EV was dead even.

I really disagree with your QQ comment. You are a favorite to 70%+ of his hands in that situation. I think QQ is a clear call.

I am very curious to understand, given the above math, why everyone thinks its so clear to fold? I dont think folding is dumb, I just dont think its a no brainer.