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Old 12-12-2005, 02:25 AM
bholdr bholdr is offline
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Default Has the Iraq War hurt our ability to deal with this whacko PM in Iran?


Mahmoud Ahmadi Nejad


Okay... so this guy is clearly a total nutjob... from denying the fact of the holocaust to suggesting that isreal should be moved to europe and/or totally wiped out, to continuing to pursue nukes (not proven, but pretty clear, imo)... he's loopy as a loon.

I mean, he's not a (understandable and predictable) evil totalitarian dicatator like Saddam or Kim Jong Il, or even a (reliable) total fundamentalist/jihadist like the taliban leadership was... but i think he's probably more dangerous than all the other threats to world stability put together right now...

why?

well... for starters, he's already alienating iran's only real freinds, former soviet states (remember that other islamic nations aren't a fan of their dominant sect- sunni(right?)), and there's no way US-Iran diplomatic relations will resume while he leads... he seems to be ignoring and/or manipulating the europeans efforts towards reconciliation and diplomacy, building bombs, maybe screwing with the energy markets a bit...

If there was no war in iraq, we might be seriously considering a pre-emptive strike on iran, to stop this lunatic before he nukes somebody just for the hell of it or says the wrong thing... or maybe isreal will ignite a religious war by wiping terhan straight off the face of the earth when his rhetoric gets too threatening(don't think they wouldn't if they thought they had to. also, if threatened seriously by nukes, there's little doubt that isreal'll use 'em, maybe pre-emptivly).

so here's my thought:

If a military solution becomes clearly imperitive to maintain the region's stability, does our presense and expense in iraq hurt or help our ability to sucessfully deal with a reckless nut like this?
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Old 12-12-2005, 03:32 AM
BCPVP BCPVP is offline
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Default Re: Has the Iraq War hurt our ability to deal with this whacko PM in I

I guess that depends on what type of pre-emptive strike we're talking about. Are we talking about a full-scale invasion and occupation like Iraq or a few targeted missle strikes? Our ability to perform the former may be reduced but the latter should be fine.
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Old 12-12-2005, 06:17 AM
New001 New001 is offline
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Default Re: Has the Iraq War hurt our ability to deal with this whacko PM in Iran?

I see it like this. Before Iran becomes a threat to this country, it will be a threat to Israel. I think we can let Israel deal with it if it gets much worse, as it would clearly be in their best interests to do so.

I have a feeling that we would be "safer" with a nuclear Iran than we would be after rebuilding Iran's government or any kind of military strike to prevent nuclear arming.
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Old 12-12-2005, 09:51 AM
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Default Re: Has the Iraq War hurt our ability to deal with this whacko PM in Iran?

[ QUOTE ]
I see it like this. Before Iran becomes a threat to this country, it will be a threat to Israel. I think we can let Israel deal with it if it gets much worse, as it would clearly be in their best interests to do so.


[/ QUOTE ] this is an absolutley terrible idea. The only sure fire way to get the rest of the middle east to sympathise with iran is to "let israel deal with them" good lord man, this is ridiculous. you should try to get a job in Bush's cabinet. as it is now, much of the midle east is skepticle of iran because of the theocratic nature of their government. encouraging a situation where israel "deals with " a muslim country would set the already f'd region back decades. In response to the OP, yes clearly our international credibility is at an all time low, or atleast close to it, and this administration in particular would have a hell of a time russeling up legitimate supporty for much of anything. The scary thing about iran is this ahmenijad charecter is the only iranian leader not named ayyatollah.
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Old 12-12-2005, 12:18 PM
Stu Pidasso Stu Pidasso is offline
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Default Re: Has the Iraq War hurt our ability to deal with this whacko PM in Iran?

[ QUOTE ]
If a military solution becomes clearly imperitive to maintain the region's stability, does our presense and expense in iraq hurt or help our ability to sucessfully deal with a reckless nut like this?


[/ QUOTE ]

It helps in the sense that we have significant military assets in Iraq and Afghanistan.

Stu
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Old 12-12-2005, 05:23 PM
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Default Re: Has the Iraq War hurt our ability to deal with this whacko PM in I

[ QUOTE ]
..."let israel deal with them" good lord man, this is ridiculous... as it is now, much of the midle east is skepticle of iran because of the theocratic nature of their government. encouraging a situation where israel "deals with" a muslim country would set the already f'd region back decades... The scary thing about iran is this ahmenijad charecter is the only iranian leader not named ayyatollah.

[/ QUOTE ]


Do you mean Israel shouldn't be allowed to defend itself? A preemptive strike, in millions of minds, would be/is considered defensive. It was tough enough keeping them on the ranch in Gulf 1. I wonder if they'll wait until crap starts falling from the sky again.

Concern by "much of the middle east," won't do anything about this or any other problem. When the "much" starts doing something positive, the region will stop being so "f'd" up.

Personally, I worry more when the leader delivering these speeches is an ayatollah.
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Old 12-12-2005, 07:26 PM
sam h sam h is offline
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Default Re: Has the Iraq War hurt our ability to deal with this whacko PM in I

Yes, the war in Iraq obviously hurts our ability to deal with Iran for several reasons.

1) The military is badly overextended and it appears that there is little stomach for another major offensive action among the armed forces. I don't think anybody really feels that a major action against Iran is on the table right now.

2) As a very powerful neighbor with a developed secret service and a history of funding small-scale terrorism, Iran obviously has the ability to really make our lives difficult in Iraq in terms of the insurgency.

3) Some elements of the Shiite community and the Shiite leadership in Iraq have charitable feelings toward their fellow Shiites across the border (I don't think is universally true though). If we attack Iran, we really endanger our ability to nurture a sympathetic Shiite government in Iraq.

Among the many detrimental legacies of the Iraq war, the narrowness of the policy space regarding Iran may turn out to be one of the most important in the long run from a strategic standpoint.
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Old 12-12-2005, 07:30 PM
zipo zipo is offline
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Default Re: Has the Iraq War hurt our ability to deal with this whacko PM in I

>>The only sure fire way to get the rest of the middle east to sympathise with iran is to "let israel deal with them" good lord man, this is ridiculous.<<

Well, while we have good relations with a few Middle Eastern governments, the vast majority of the population in that region hates America with a vengeance.

Nothing individual Americans or the American government can do will possibly change that - at least not for many generations.

The upside of this is that if we support/allow Israel to wipe out Iran's nuclear capabilities, well, it won't hurt our 'image' at all. Nothing we do will make the people of the middle east hate us more.

We want Iranian nukes wiped out as much as Israel does. Time to let Israel pay us back a little for the billions in aid we pump in there every year.

Time to sic our dog on em.
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Old 12-12-2005, 08:32 PM
Arnfinn Madsen Arnfinn Madsen is offline
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Default Re: Has the Iraq War hurt our ability to deal with this whacko PM in Iran?

He is a nuthead, but your picture is wrong. He was not involved in the hostage taking. The guy on the picture on the left is another guy (if you know anybody in Washington, just ask them, and they will confirm it). It was a fabricated rumour by a group of exile Iranis.

Seen isolated, I think that US troops in Iraq and Afghanistan is making it easier to deal with him; but in reality Bush has spent political capital both nationally and internationally that limits his real possibilities to act. It is why he hopes for an European solution, since he really does not want to take military action against Iran.
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Old 12-12-2005, 08:55 PM
BCPVP BCPVP is offline
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Default Re: Has the Iraq War hurt our ability to deal with this whacko PM in I

[ QUOTE ]
We want Iranian nukes wiped out as much as Israel does.

[/ QUOTE ]
I'm fairly confident the above is false. Israel wants Iran's nukes wiped out much more than we do. Our very survival as a country is not riding on whether Iran develops a nuke or two. Israel's is.

I think that Israel should say that if any nuke goes off even close to Israel, they will nuke Mecca. Sure it'd piss off a bunch of muslims, but would they be willing to risk their holy site on it?
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