Tournament Poker for Advanced Players-quiz question

[yimyammer]

Hand Quiz # 48 (page 194 of Tounrament Poker for Advance Players)

Quote:

"It is the last table of a no-limit hold'em tournament. There are five players left. The three players behind you have about $20,000 each. The player on your right has $70,000. You have $60,000. The blinds are $1,000 and $2,000. The chip leader makes it $12,000 to go under the gun. You have JJ, what should you do?"

Sklansky says throw the jacks away.

I'm sure he's right, and I'd probably do that, but I might hesitate if the chip stack was raising every hand or if he was typically raising 3 times the big blind and now raised 6 times and I had some reason to belive the larger raise meant a weaker hand he didnt want called based on my observation of him or her up to that point. Am I wrong to think there might be a case for calling (or raising) and seeing what the flop comes?

Why or why not?

The short stacks really arent that short IMHO and based on my experience can be back in it by mearly winning one hand.

My guess as to the reasons for a fold are as follows:

1. wait for a better spot and try to get the short stacks out first
2. The larger preflop bet means a stronger hand than normal based on my observation.
3. There are three players behind that could raise representing a stronger hand that may force me to fold or call when well behind or face a reraise by the original raiser.
4. I wont be able to act first if I just call and the raiser could make a large continuation bet giving me a tough decision on a flop that appears to help me.
5. The raiser could have AA, KK or QQ leaving me in really bad shape.

What if the short stacks were playing extremely tight and were giving off a highly reliable tell that they and the blinds were all prepared to fold leaving me heads up with the chip leader, would this make any difference?

Thanks

[Hosayif]

My guess would be that at best you're a coin flip with the one person who can break you and that you should wait to be a short stack before going for coin flips, or up against a short stack trying to eliminate him and move up in the pay ladder.

[benkahuna]

I think it has to do with probability of winning based on stack size. Basically, assuming you are equal in skill to the other players, you have a 60/190 chance of winning the whole thing. If you risk your chips going against a big stack, you are taking an unnecessary risk with - EV for the tournament. Give the short stacks a chance to blow it and move safely up the ladder.

[Jbrochu]

Here is an excellent analysis of this problem by a respected poster in the "1-table Tournaments" forum.