Flopping the underboat against a short stack.

[SpicyF]

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I dont buy this. There is a fair amount of times when your read is wrong. His play is very similar to JJ-QQ-KK type of hands and you must take this into account. I would say that fact alone negates the reasoning of checking behind to get more good value.

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Actually, that might be more reason to check behind. If we check behind, villian may think his JJ-KK is good and call a river push. Just a thought. Too late to be coherent. Or to spelll.

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Yes quite possibly. I don't think he would fold anyways. [img]/images/graemlins/smile.gif[/img]

[Toyboy]

I like the check behind line given your reasoning.

Your check behind on river looks like weakness; and as mentioned by others this may induce a river push from KK-JJ (putting you on a lone 10 or more likely a pocket pair). It will also give the rare KhQh a chance to make their flush on the river. You're giving KK-JJ a free draw to 4 outs on the river, but if that earns you an extra bet a good % of the time when they miss i think taking this line against KK-JJ would be +EV.

And if you put villain squarely on an Ace, all his money is going into the middle on the river if you want to (given his short stack). And fold equity on turn given he holds an ace is precisely 0. So with no cards that can kill your action, why not wait to get it in until you "know" you're good? I'd be crying while folding to the double-paired board though (but if you take this line you must of course be able to make the laydown when that happens).

But I might be wrong....

[Hattifnatt]

I like your line, even with that read. The push on the turn looks better than a check.

[scrapperdog]

Am I the only one that thinks this post is getting loaded with bad advice?
First off if you are gonna start checking turn because you are worried about a 7 outer with 1 card to come that is a sign of trouble. You are a huge favorite ... call me crazy but I like to put as much money in as possible as a huge favorite. You are gonna win this hand about 80% of the time (rough estimate I did not do the math). You cant start checking because you will lose 20% of the time.

Second off if the flush hits on the river there is a strong chance this guy is not gonna call an all in bet. Bellieve it or not some people dont call all-in bets with naked trips when a flush hits the board. Lets see 2 hearts come on flop (you flat call), you check behind on turn, then go all-in on the river when the last heart comes. What do you think he puts you on? You just possibly killed your action. Yes the guy was short stacked and PROBABLY would have called but if he was not short stacked then what?

You have to bet this turn. A heart draw will call a reasonable bet and you can possibly stack them on the river. Naked trips will get more invested in the pot and be more likely to call when the last heart hits on the river. The more money people put in a pot before the river the better chance they are gonna call a large river bet when when a scare card hits. As an 80% favorite you need to be worried more about losing your action and less about losing the hand.

[Toyboy]

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Am I the only one that thinks this post is getting loaded with bad advice?
First off if you are gonna start checking turn because you are worried about a 7 outer with 1 card to come that is a sign of trouble. You are a huge favorite ... call me crazy but I like to put as much money in as possible as a huge favorite.

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I'm far from sure about checking behind turn (especially seing respected posters disagreeing). But is this such a clear cut case? For my own good I'd like to hear more of the reasoning behind this.

In most situations (draw heavy boards, with cards to come that may kill my action): sure, push turn. I'm not too worried about the 7-outer (only 15% worried), but if I'm given the opportunity to see the river before getting it in knowing villain will call any river bet and would under no circumstances fold to a turn push then it cannot be wrong unless villain will bet a river scare card with a hand we beat. And I admit the latter may be a potential problem.

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Second off if the flush hits on the river there is a strong chance this guy is not gonna call an all in bet. Bellieve it or not some people dont call all-in bets with naked trips when a flush hits the board. Lets see 2 hearts come on flop (you flat call), you check behind on turn, then go all-in on the river when the last heart comes. What do you think he puts you on? You just possibly killed your action.

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Hero didn't call flop, he pot-bet it. Villain check-called flop, so he's the likely one on a flush draw following your reasoning. Not that I think he's likely on a flush draw, but he could be. Which is also an argument for checking behind hoping for the flush to complete on river.
Anyway: checking behind on turn could be read for a 10, JJ , lower PPs or a pure bluff taking a shot at the flop and shutting down. I don't think hero's line screams flush draw anyway.

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Yes the guy was short stacked and PROBABLY would have called but if he was not short stacked then what?


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If he wasn't short stacked I'd bet to make sure I didn't miss value on river.

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You have to bet this turn. A heart draw will call a reasonable bet and you can possibly stack them on the river.

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So what bet do you suggest other than a push?

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Naked trips will get more invested in the pot and be more likely to call when the last heart hits on the river. The more money people put in a pot the better chance they are gonna call a large river bet when when a scare card hits.

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I agree to this on a general basis, but do you think short stacked villain can get away from trips on the river? If so then I agree you must bet turn.

I guess checking behind turn boils down to:

+ You might be able to extract value from lesser hands by checking behind on turn? KK-JJ + possibly a pure bluff like missed flush draws (who believes the weakness in you turn check).
+ Hoping villain is on the odd flush draw and hits on river.
+ 7 outer hits on river and we fold to a better hand

- Villain will be scared by 3rd heart on river and folds to our bet
- 7 outer hits on river and we fold to a bluff from a worse hand


I'm not saying I'm sure, so flame away!

[scrapperdog]

Well my point is this. If you are an 85% favorite to win you need to get action when you can. In this case a flush draw might call turn and an ace is gonna call turn.

If you wait unil the river there are a number of cards that could kill your action. If the flush comes the naked trips has got to be worried about it. If the villian was on a flush draw and it misses river like it will over 75% of the time then you just missed your chance to get more money from him. You dont have to push. Make a value bet that a flush draw can possibly call (or KK or whatever) and still lets you get away if the board pairs and you feel like you are beat. I dont mind a push though.

There is no sound reason (that I know of) for checking an 85% chance to win hand on the turn when there are a number of hands that will call you. This is triple true when the river could be an action killer. The time think about checking an 85% chance to win the is when you dont see any hands that might call. Maybe you can induce a bluff or get a lesser hand to bet. Or maybe they will make a little something hand on the river and give action. But I dont think that is the case with this hand, there are hands that will call a bet.

We could get into the details like how I misread the action but honestly they dont matter when you look at the big picture.

I come strong and hard with my opinions on this forum but I hope nobody takes what I say personally. I love this thing and learn a lot from you guys.

[Bosox]

1/2 pot the turn.

Since there's no way your read can be 100%, i'll ignore it. Your opponent could have called that flop bet with a number of hands, especially the QKs KJs QJs doubledraw hands and high pocket pairs. Since the drawing hands will only hit a fraction of the time and only then will give you river action, you need to make a 1/2 potsized bet on the turn to extract money from these hands for all the times they don't hit. It's +EV in the longrun. Don't even worry about him having his trip aces, they're coming along for the ride anyways so it doesn't matter when you get the money in against them so much.

The most important place to squeak out some +EV is the hands that AREN'T trip aces but still will feel the need to call a smallish turn bet while drawing dead. Also, a scare card on the river like a flushcard can kill your action, and is more likely than a card which legitimately scares YOU.

i'm so very tired.