Callin all in with 99?

[Roman]

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I could be wrong, but my gut says that a call here is -cEV. I'm not exacltly sure what range this would imply for the reraiser, but my gut says that its going to often be strong enough to warrant a fold

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ditto

[JC_Saves]

(blind)

I think that I would lay this down in this situation. there are too many hands that have you beat and you have a decent stack still. There is no reason to get crazy with this hand.

[Lloyd]

Ok, you're getting 1.66 to 1 odds. You need 37.5% equity to break even here. If you put him on AK, QQ-TT you have 35% equity. Add in AA-KK and you're down to 31% equity. Even adding in AQ just gives you 37% equity. Any way you look at this it seems like it should be a fold unless he's a very aggressive player (and you don't have that type of read on him). I think a reasonable range here is AK, QQ-TT with some possibility of AA, KK, and 99/88 (fairly unlikely). Against that range, TT has 41% equity which I think is marginally enough to make the call.

[SossMan]

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Ok, you're getting 1.66 to 1 odds. You need 37.5% equity to break even here. If you put him on AK, QQ-TT you have 35% equity. Add in AA-KK and you're down to 31% equity. Even adding in AQ just gives you 37% equity. Any way you look at this it seems like it should be a fold unless he's a very aggressive player (and you don't have that type of read on him). I think a reasonable range here is AK, QQ-TT with some possibility of AA, KK, and 99/88 (fairly unlikely). Against that range, TT has 41% equity which I think is marginally enough to make the call.

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end of thread.

[EverettKings]

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Ok, you're getting 1.66 to 1 odds. You need 37.5% equity to break even here. If you put him on AK, QQ-TT you have 35% equity. Add in AA-KK and you're down to 31% equity. Even adding in AQ just gives you 37% equity. Any way you look at this it seems like it should be a fold unless he's a very aggressive player (and you don't have that type of read on him). I think a reasonable range here is AK, QQ-TT with some possibility of AA, KK, and 99/88 (fairly unlikely). Against that range, TT has 41% equity which I think is marginally enough to make the call.

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end of thread.

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Almost. You have to keep AA/KK in his range. Most people don't smooth call AA/KK there, and given that they raise, and any raise is committing, they just move in and hope to look a little suspicious. Very very few people will make that smooth call, probably because it's not a good idea.

Everett

PS 40% equity, 37.5% equity, either way you're really stretching to make this a skimpily +cev call.

[PFrese]

Reluctantly fold. This is less of a math problem and more of a people problem. Meaning - there is no way that a late position player is going to PUSH with anything that you already have beat - maybe, maybe AKs. Everything else he makes this play with has you dominated, especially since you are UTG. He knows you have something good (99 is on the bottom of the something good range, for me anyway). Is he really trying to steal this pot? When I choose to steal pots it is usually NOT from an UTG raiser. He has you beat. Fold.

And, lastly - do you really want to CALL off your tourney life with 99, preflop? Not me. I hate calling all in here.

[ZeroPointMachine]

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Ok, you're getting 1.66 to 1 odds. You need 37.5% equity to break even here. If you put him on AK, QQ-TT you have 35% equity. Add in AA-KK and you're down to 31% equity. Even adding in AQ just gives you 37% equity. Any way you look at this it seems like it should be a fold unless he's a very aggressive player (and you don't have that type of read on him). I think a reasonable range here is AK, QQ-TT with some possibility of AA, KK, and 99/88 (fairly unlikely). Against that range, TT has 41% equity which I think is marginally enough to make the call.

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end of thread.

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When did the hand change from 99 to TT?

[Lloyd]

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Ok, you're getting 1.66 to 1 odds. You need 37.5% equity to break even here. If you put him on AK, QQ-TT you have 35% equity. Add in AA-KK and you're down to 31% equity. Even adding in AQ just gives you 37% equity. Any way you look at this it seems like it should be a fold unless he's a very aggressive player (and you don't have that type of read on him). I think a reasonable range here is AK, QQ-TT with some possibility of AA, KK, and 99/88 (fairly unlikely). Against that range, TT has 41% equity which I think is marginally enough to make the call.

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end of thread.

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Almost. You have to keep AA/KK in his range. Most people don't smooth call AA/KK there, and given that they raise, and any raise is committing, they just move in and hope to look a little suspicious. Very very few people will make that smooth call, probably because it's not a good idea.

Everett

PS 40% equity, 37.5% equity, either way you're really stretching to make this a skimpily +cev call.

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Did I not specifically say that I was adding SOME possibility of AA/KK? I'm not 100% certain that they would push pre-flop with those hands, but it's certainly a possibility which is why they were partially included in my analysis.

[sirio11]

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The bet all in by the guy does not look like AA-KK to me

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ah, the old put him on what you want him to have play.

do you really think AA/KK smoothcalls there that often? i know i'm happy to move in on a utg raiser with a big pair when he's getting 1.75:1.

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You have AA in LP with 37k, blinds are 1-2k and somebody with a 34k stack raised to 7k in EP. Are you telling me that your only options here are smoothcall or push?

What about

1) Raising to 15k
2) Raising to 18k
3) Raising to 21k
4) Raising to 24k

5) Hell, even miniraising to 13k.

This has nothing to do with what I want him to have to play. Just based on my experience in this spot, check your pokertracker or we can make a poll here to see which % of the time a guy is pushing with AA here versus options 1,2,3,4,5

[sirio11]

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Ok, you're getting 1.66 to 1 odds. You need 37.5% equity to break even here. If you put him on AK, QQ-TT you have 35% equity. Add in AA-KK and you're down to 31% equity. Even adding in AQ just gives you 37% equity. Any way you look at this it seems like it should be a fold unless he's a very aggressive player (and you don't have that type of read on him). I think a reasonable range here is AK, QQ-TT with some possibility of AA, KK, and 99/88 (fairly unlikely). Against that range, TT has 41% equity which I think is marginally enough to make the call.

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Yes, TT sounds about right. This is one of the spots where you wish you could make all this analysis faster.