QQ hand...trying to spot a set

[dbitel]

Full Tilt, .5/1 9way..no read on villian. Villian has $96 and i cover

Villian limps from UTG+1, poster in MP checks, I raise to $5.5 from MP with QQ, only villian calls

Flop ($13.5): 5 [img]/images/graemlins/spade.gif[/img] 6 [img]/images/graemlins/diamond.gif[/img] 8 [img]/images/graemlins/heart.gif[/img]

Villian bets $13.5, I call

Turn (40.5): 9 [img]/images/graemlins/heart.gif[/img]

Villian pushes for $78 I fold


Shoul I be raising the flop...if so, how much? Do I fold to a flop push? do I presume every1 folds the turn push?

[jsnipes28]

I would raise flop to let him know that you have an overpair, somewhere like 35 should work. The flop is so draw heavy that i hate calling here because there are so many scare cards that can come on the turn. If he pushes to your raise then i am pretty sure you can safely fold.

As played that is an easy fold on the turn, IMO.

You played this too passively to tell what Villian has. I would raise his flop bet to around $30 and then if he calls, then I would be worried. If he 3-bets the flop, then fold. I dont like just calling the flop bet, because a large range of hands could bet the flop. I think 44, 55, 66, 77, 88, 99, TT are Villians most likely holdings once he pushed the turn. I think 77 is very very likely. Other than raising the flop, you played this hand sound.

[dbitel]

My only preoblem with raising the flop, is that I thought his most likely holdings were 44,55,66,77,88,99,TT, 56, 67, 78, 89, since he was leading into me. Having said that, it could be the whole "he has AK and has missed" thinking.

And put yourself in villian's shoes, how many of these are you not going to come over the top with? if it was me, I would push all but 44,TT,89 and 99 (although some villians might push 99). Is think thinking just too weak-tight?