400nl AK turn decision vs. deep opponent

AllIn3High · #1 12-19-2005, 01:20 PM

UTG is sort of a donkey (58/20/~1) (same villian as in my previous hand, but read has changed), he's v. easy to read in the hands he plays against other people at the table. But I suspect he's actually decent, since he plays fairly decent vs. me (b/c of stacks). He calls flop very lightly vs me tho, and the times i've seen him bet into me when i've been the aggressor it's always been on the river when he's made his draw. I don't knwo what to make of his turn donk-bet, I suspect it's a flushdraw or steal of some kind as I expect him to raise KQ 100% of the time. It could be som other 2 pairs tho or a set (even deuces, he's loose enough to call the flop with that). EDIT: Although I have seen him limp v. good hands occasionally and play them passively on the first few streets, This usually hasn't been UTG tho, and it has never been semi-decent hands like KQ.

I've been raising him frequently preflop (and showing down lots of different hands, I could very well have 5[img]/images/graemlins/heart.gif[/img]7[img]/images/graemlins/heart.gif[/img], 22 or a similar type hand here) and calling his raises liberaly as I want to play a lot of pots vs. him to stack him, he knows this and has been avoiding it.

Party Poker No-Limit Hold'em, $ BB (6 max, 6 handed) pokerhand.org hand converter

CO ($296.16)
Button ($453.50)
SB ($80.04)
BB ($642.43)
UTG ($1861.70)
Hero ($1540.60)

Preflop: Hero is MP with A[img]/images/graemlins/diamond.gif[/img], K[img]/images/graemlins/spade.gif[/img]. SB posts a blind of $2.
UTG calls $4, Hero raises to $18, CO calls $18, 3 folds, UTG calls $14.

Flop: ($60) 6[img]/images/graemlins/heart.gif[/img], Q[img]/images/graemlins/spade.gif[/img], K[img]/images/graemlins/heart.gif[/img] (3 players)
UTG checks, Hero bets $40, CO folds, UTG calls $40.

Turn: ($140) 2[img]/images/graemlins/diamond.gif[/img] (2 players)
UTG bets $100, Hero's plan?

EDIT: Given the above, I'm not looking to fold (although if someone can make a persausive argument to do so I'd consider it). But I'm probably not looking to play a huge pot either as I'll almost surely lose if I do.

#2 12-19-2005, 01:46 PM

If he's truly a donkey, I would call. If he's a solid player, you have some thinking to do. Yes, donkeys do call raises out of position with crap like K2, but you probably have the best hand at this point. Against a solid player, you have to consider other things like, what he limped in with, etc. Although, if a solid player limped in UTG with AA or KK, he would've reraised you preflop. Call.

Ghazban · #3 12-19-2005, 01:53 PM

[ QUOTE ]
EDIT: Given the above, I'm not looking to fold (although if someone can make a persausive argument to do so I'd consider it). But I'm probably not looking to play a huge pot either as I'll almost surely lose if I do.

[/ QUOTE ]

If this is true, you have one option and its totally obvious.

AllIn3High · #4 12-19-2005, 01:54 PM

Yeah as I wrote, he's "sort of a donkey", he hasn't exactly been throwing his money at me.

But when I call the turn what's the plan for the river? Pot will be $340 and we'll have lots of $$$ behind, and he's not the kind to make a blocking bet that's a min-bet. In other words I might face a close to pot be on the river.

Ghazban · #5 12-19-2005, 01:59 PM

[ QUOTE ]
Yeah as I wrote, he's "sort of a donkey", he hasn't exactly been throwing his money at me.

But when I call the turn what's the plan for the river? Pot will be $340 and we'll have lots of $$$ behind, and he's not the kind to make a blocking bet that's a min-bet. In other words I might face a close to pot be on the river.

[/ QUOTE ]

If you raise the turn, will he still be inclined to bet a worse hand for value on the river? If not, you can make a smallish (1/2- to 2/3-pot) raise on the turn and fold to a reraise or a river donkbet without committing as much as if you call turn and call a pot bet on the river. Basically, your turn raise is a blocking bet to set your price for showdown but its no good if a call of the turn raise followed by a river bet could possibly be a worse hand.

AllIn3High · #6 12-19-2005, 01:59 PM

[ QUOTE ]
[ QUOTE ]
EDIT: Given the above, I'm not looking to fold (although if someone can make a persausive argument to do so I'd consider it). But I'm probably not looking to play a huge pot either as I'll almost surely lose if I do.

[/ QUOTE ]

If this is true, you have one option and its totally obvious.

[/ QUOTE ]

Yeah, but I could be facing another bet on the river...

There's still the option of raising the turn and not putting any more money into the pot.

unlucky513 · #7 12-19-2005, 02:32 PM

i'd raise the turn. not only are you taking control of the hand, you'll see how strong villain's hand really is. if he pushes, you fold. if he calls and leads the river, i think its an easy fold. if he calls and checks the river, you can check behind and get to showdown a lot easier than calling the turn/river.

i know that sounds like a "raise to find out where you are" post, but with your read, there is a good chance you're ahead here and want to show this hand down. i think raising the turn gets you there the cheapest.

#8 12-19-2005, 03:34 PM

i'm not so sure i fold here.. theres really nothing that is too scary about this board unless he hit a set.

#9 12-19-2005, 03:35 PM

thats not too bad of an idea..

maybe even a miniraise to $200 would be sufficient.

if he pushes you're probably beat, if he flat calls and then decides to throw it in there on the river you probably have him.

#10 12-19-2005, 03:37 PM

like i said before.. i like the turn miniraise to $200 here.

he obviously respects your play. and if hes "sort of a donkey" and has noticed that you paid him off last time he hit his draw when he lead out.. he might be using that against you this time.

what makes KJ sound so out of the question here?