Slow playing strong TPTK on flop

[Shillx]

Mixing up play is good in these small pots. The best line for me is to call-call-raise. If you randomly raised any street, that would be fine as well. I would wait with a hand like AK or a missed draw like 98 [img]/images/graemlins/club.gif[/img], so it is tough to play against the river raise with Kx or the missed Ax [img]/images/graemlins/club.gif[/img] draw. Waiting for the river is better (small pots only) because...

- You get 3-bet on the river less often from a boss hand
- You win more when he is bluffing
- You lose less when you bluff raise

I should expand on the last point. Say you have the said 98 [img]/images/graemlins/club.gif[/img] and you decide to raise the turn as a semi-bluff. If called, you then bet the river regardless of what comes. So in effect you are risking 2.8 BB to win what is in the middle. Remember that the river card will give you a flush ~20% of the time so you get a discount on all river bluffs. By waiting to bluff-raise the river, you only risk 2.6 BB to win what is out there. This 0.2 BB might not sound like a lot, but it is essentially free money since the reward is the same no matter which street you raise. Add in the times that you get 3-bet on the turn, and waiting becomes by far the best play. The argument "he might fold to the turn raise" isn't valid here because he would have also folded to a river raise and he would have put 1 BB more into the middle by doing so.

So for me, raising the turn doesn't make too much sense against typical players. Against good players who will sometimes give up on the river, it becomes more important to raise earlier in the hand.

Brad