Bluff with my set?

[Piz0wn0reD!!!!!!]

[ QUOTE ]
I don't completely agree that he won't call with a worse hand either... you said what I was trying to say better. [img]/images/graemlins/smile.gif[/img]

[/ QUOTE ]

even if he would call w/ a worse hand making it a vlaue bet, he is very capable of checkraising here. So essentially you are risking 2 bets to win 1 (or risking folding before the SD where you for sure have some SD equity)

IMO the only time to bet here is against an opponent who will fold a beter hand (which is not that likely)

[SomethingClever]

[ QUOTE ]
[ QUOTE ]
I don't completely agree that he won't call with a worse hand either... you said what I was trying to say better. [img]/images/graemlins/smile.gif[/img]

[/ QUOTE ]

even if he would call w/ a worse hand making it a vlaue bet, he is very capable of checkraising here. So essentially you are risking 2 bets to win 1 (or risking folding before the SD where you for sure have some SD equity)

IMO the only time to bet here is against an opponent who will fold a beter hand (which is not that likely)

[/ QUOTE ]

Ok, villain had 99, no spade. Think he would have folded?

[Piz0wn0reD!!!!!!]

[ QUOTE ]

Ok, villain had 99, no spade. Think he would have folded?

[/ QUOTE ]

i doubt it (id say a random player folds here 15% of the time), but if i knew he had that i would surely bet.

[etizzle]

there are more opponents against whom you could value bet then ones you could bluff out. By far. In general no one is even considering folding anything you beat. You will get called by some worse hands though if you bet.

All in all you should definitely check. THe only time you would gain from a bet is when he calls with a worse hand.

[Piz0wn0reD!!!!!!]

[ QUOTE ]
there are more opponents against whom you could value bet then ones you could bluff out. By far.



[/ QUOTE ]

this may be true, but you are still risking 2 or folding to gain 1. And i think you are beat here a lot. So it is -EV against a random player.

[ QUOTE ]
In general no one is even considering folding anything you beat. You will get called by some worse hands though if you bet.

[/ QUOTE ]

do you mean anything that beats him? im 100% certain almost all players will fold bottom pair here. you will get called by some worse hands, but once again its not a value bet.

[ QUOTE ]
All in all you should definitely check. THe only time you would gain from a bet is when he calls with a worse hand.

[/ QUOTE ]

I agree that its an easy check. But you woudlnt gain from a bet when he folds a beter hand?

all in all i would say the only value coming from a river bet is against a player who will fold a low spade or A or 9 (which is incorrect, yet the "good" players are more capable of doing this)

[JKDStudent]

[ QUOTE ]
Ok, villain had 99, no spade. Think he would have folded?

[/ QUOTE ]

Well considering he didn't fold against all suited overcards then actually improved his hand, he's not going anywhere.

[etizzle]

yeah typo i meant anything that beats him.

as to the first part, you dont really have to risk 2 bets to gain one. You should not be calling a checkraise here.

[goofball]

I just thought I'd mention the concept of a value-bluff. At higher level this is how it works. You don't know your opponent that well, you know that some opponents are calling with KQ there, others mgiht fold a 9 or a low spade, so you bet hoping to sometimes get called by a worse hand and sometimes fold a better hand. Here isn't the best spot for it, because, at least at 5/10 you have zero fold equity, and really at any leve you have very little fold equity.

[Piz0wn0reD!!!!!!]

[ QUOTE ]
yeah typo i meant anything that beats him.

as to the first part, you dont really have to risk 2 bets to gain one. You should not be calling a checkraise here.

[/ QUOTE ]

i said you risk 2 or folding before the SD (which is bad)