Flop + turn call...

[krishanleong]

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your out are super tainted. i would find a fold on the flop. call me a nit.

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How many outs do I have?

Krishan

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between 0 and 6.

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I understand you are joking. But it's important to come with a number even in tough spots like this.

Krishan

[Victor]

i am dead serious about how many outs you have. if someone has the j10s and someone else has a lone 7 you are drawing dead. there are many other combos where you are drawing dead as well against 4 opps.

so between 0 and 6 seems like a good starting point. in ssh ed says to count tainted outs as 1/2 an out. so lets go with 3 outs. you have 3 outs that you have no idea if they will be good or not. you are not near closing the action and could be forced to pay 2 more bets.

[Monty Cantsin]

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...so between 0 and 6 seems like a good starting point. in ssh ed says to count tainted outs as 1/2 an out. so lets go with 3 outs. you have 3 outs that you have no idea if they will be good or not.

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Just as a point of procedure - once you've decided (using whatever method) to give yourself a certain number of outs, you shouldn't then go on to say you don't know whether they're good or not.

The uncertainty about your outs is already factored into the number you arrived at. So, if you end up with 3 outs you should calculate your odds based on that number, no further fudging is needed.

I fold the turn.

/mc

[J. Sawyer]

I fold this flop for 2 bets, 1 is a dif. story

[JKDStudent]

I don't mind the flop call. But might I suggest a different course of action? Bet the flop. This flop didn't hit UTG. He either has overcards or a pocket pair (read?) If there's a good chance he's on overcards, he may raise this flop and drive out others. You're out of position, but it could definitely increase your chances of winning unimproved.

By the time the turn comes along, we've abandoned all hope of having the best hand. Button has cold called twice, and BB did it once. There's probably a flush out there. That knocks you down to one 6 out (and heaven forbid anyone have a 7 in hand). With the flush and JT possibility, I'll be generous and give you two 7 outs. 3 outs getting 7.5:1? That's a fold.

But if BB calls, now you've got 8.5:1. If you hit on the end, this is a perfect time for a c/r. Even if it doesn't get raised, you're pulling in at least another 4BB, giving you 11.5:1. And that's just if UTG bets, MP calls, everyone else folds, you raise, and they call. But you do NOT want to see a 3-bet on this turn.

I don't mind the flop call. But calling 2 cold on the turn... IF everything went perfectly for you for the rest of the hand, the implied odds give you what is essentially a razor thin call. But everything would have to go perfectly, and two bets without closing the action with every out tainted, I'm getting rid of it on the turn.

[Guy McSucker]

Let's look at the turn first.

Even if BB calls you're only getting 9-1. You probably have some outs, up to six if you're lucky, but we can't know if they're good. As I've said in previous posts, when you have tainted outs, you need both to discount the number of outs and to ignore any river action. This is because, although sometimes the bets going in on the river will be all yours, other times they will be all someone else's. The easiest approximation is to forget about implied odds.

Back to the turn. If you're going to call here, you need 4.6 outs or thereabouts. I think that is quite an optimistic assumption, given that the very common drawing hand of JT has your 7s dead and there are two flush draws out there. So I am confident in saying I don't like the turn call.

The flop is harder to decide, for me. Pot odds are the same. On the implied odds front, you have a chance to extract money on two streets if you hit, and I think with good judgement you can use the turn betting to work out if you want to get more money in on the river or not, so "ignore all implied odds" is probably not good enough. There's only the one flush draw on the flop, too. This makes it all look a little rosier, but there's a good chance the BB will not call (by the turn it looks like he will, because he did on the flop) so you might not get your 9-1. I think this swings it to a fold in my book.

Guy.

[krishanleong]

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Guy.

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I think the turn blows. You've are convinced me that the flop isn't all that appetizing either. Thanks for the great analysis.

Krishan