AA......2 Kings flop

[aggie]

My plan fails and villian best only $35 into $140 pot. Now i'm almost certain he has a K....But i'm getting 5-1. Could he be donk value betting a Q or an 8....I guess anything's possible...I call like the donkey i am (HEHAW)

Villian has AK and i lose....

What do y'all do on this river?

[BobboFitos]

i normally would check this flop

[aggie]

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i normally would check this flop

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Okay, you check and the button bets 1/2 pot. What's your plan then? Are you check folding?

[edit] and what if it gets checked around? What's your plan then? When you just check the flop are you completely giving up on the hand?

[BobboFitos]

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i normally would check this flop

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Okay, you check and the button bets 1/2 pot. What's your plan then? Are you check folding?

[edit] and what if it gets checked around? What's your plan then? When you just check the flop are you completely giving up on the hand?

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not at all, just because I check doesnt mean I have any intention of letting this go. but i would rather have money go in as the caller then the bettor with my hand here.

if it's checked around, it depends what falls, but yes, I'd bet the turn.

Here's the thing; you dont have a strong hand. It's good enough to beat any bluff, and there rarely will be a 2nd best hand (like JJ) in there that could pay you off. So unless you're very LAG and people will call down with J8 or 55, (which is less likely in a multiway pot to this extreme) you want to plan the hand to not put your stack in the middle.

[aggie]

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not at all, just because I check doesnt mean I have any intention of letting this go.

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Thanks Rob,

I'm definitely NOT disagreeing with you here. This is obviously a way ahead or way behind situation so check-calling definitely has it's merrits. So I'm very torn as to what the best approach here is.

When you check the flop, what's you're plan? Let's assume all unknown opponents. Is it, check call flop / check fold turn (or maybe weak lead / fold turn?)....Bet if it gets checked around?

One of the merits of taking the initiative is controlling bet/pot size....The other benefit is that this is exactly how i might play AK (although my opponents probably aren't savvy enough to realize that and might expect me to slowplay)

Anyway, i really do respect your opinion, so i'd like to hear your thoughts?

[BobboFitos]

Clint,

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One of the merits of taking the initiative is controlling bet/pot size....T


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Figure I'll start here - the problem with betting the flop is it sets up a situation where one of several things will happen:
1. Everyone will fold (which is fine, but generally their collective equity was less then 2 or so outs, if even a pocket pair was in there)
2. You'll get a caller
3. Someone will raise

Now, #1 is ok, but not really maximizing our earn. We dont need aces to bet into a field and take a pot down. (although having them is nice)

If #2 happens, even if just one caller, you're setting up a 70$ pot with (Button called, he had 100xbb) so average of ~175 behind, out of position. It also sets up an expensive guessing game where;
a. He has nothing and is calling to bluff (more of an advanced move, and although this is a good board for that, with 5 people seeing the flop and NL200 I'd rate this % as very low)
b. He has a little something, and is calling hoping you are bluffing. (Like 8x or a small pocketpair, "putting you" on AQ, AJ, JT, 65, whatever)
c. He has a king or 88, and you have 2 outs (~10% equity in this pot) Obviously, we dont like this situation.

If our plan is to check-call him down if called on the flop, he normally gets what he wants with the small something, he generally doubles up when ahead, and will fire one barrell if calling to bluff (rarely the last one, but often enough calling the turn to fold the river is a bad move) Just as a point of noting stack sizes, if you check, pot is 70, and he only bets half pot, he's setting up a 140 pot with ~140 stacks. Which means he still could launch it all in.

How this relates to controlling the pot size, is with so many people seeing hte flop, if this gets bet every street, you will play for your stack. Being out of position, (unless one of the blinds calls the flop bet) you wont have the luxury of exercising pot control on the turn; if he bets, you'll hev to check call twice or block bet river (after committing a huge % of your stack anyway)

All this said, I play LAg enough where if I was to bet this flop, and someone called me, I wouldn't say "oh no, I am drawing at 2 outs." I'd say, he may be testing me or he may be slowplaying. Fine. The thing is, if I then bet the turn as well, he gets to fold the middling hands (although sometimes they do call down, too [img]/images/graemlins/smile.gif[/img] ) and sucker me in to lose max.

The point of all this is betting the flop in this situation leads to trouble. I like to balance my checks here. (meaning, I'm not following up my bet, but I'm also not check folding; for a metagame aspect, which isn't really as important at these stakes, but does show that a check isn't always a giveaway)

So, if we do check the flop, (which still could be wrong!It's just what I'd do!) then...

Actually, before that, #3, we get raised, well, this is a good board to run a bluff raise, because it puts the max. heat on our hand. If button or someone did it, (facing the field) I'd normally fold although not like it. It's too easy, as well, for some players to raise a worse hand, putting us on continuation bet and other people on nothing, so they think their 44 or Q8 or whatever is good. Anyway, I'd fold most of the time, which isn't horrible, (as often it is trips) but if I *did* check I do gain those 2 outs I redraw him. (smaaaaaaaaall chance this happens, but worth weighing in)

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When you check the flop, what's you're plan? Let's assume all unknown opponents. Is it, check call flop / check fold turn (or maybe weak lead / fold turn?)....Bet if it gets checked around?

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If it's checked to button and a blind c/r, then I lost the minimum. Thats clearly not a bluff, it's rarely a worse hand "protecting" itself. If someone calls in the middle, pretty much same thought pattern, but depending on the size of the bet, I may take a turn because thats not enough evidence I'm beaten. (And I dont fold aces so easily!! [img]/images/graemlins/smile.gif[/img] )

If it's checked to button or someone, and they bet, then folded to me, this is probably the most likely situation. There is a 15bb pot and the pfr didnt bet into it, someone will show interest.

Well, I'm going to call. I'm obviusly not c/r, as unless you're playing real badplayers, thats not called by a worse hand, and allows you to lose everything on the flop. woohoo!
I'm also not folding, as thats a straight steal a huge % of the time.

So i'd call. Depending on the turn, (changing the texture and board coordination) i'd stop & go or check again. This is probably where you're asking me to go into further detail, and I feel like a dick, but I cant say this part. Only, the goal is to maximize earn, but also people rarely fire 2street bluffs on such a board.

In the event it's checked around, once again I'm probably betting the turn, and then I'm definately (if called) value betting the river. This is the time you'll win the most, as by checking the flop people will be convinced no one has anything, so you get tons of loose calls. (people who have 2 outs)

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he other benefit is that this is exactly how i might play AK (although my opponents probably aren't savvy enough to realize that and might expect me to slowplay)

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Yeah, I'd bet the flop w/ AK; much different. There, you can still gain value from those middling hands, and it gauruntees a nice double up from another K who may "slowplay" his weaker trips if the flop is checked around.

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nyway, i really do respect your opinion, so i'd like to hear your thoughts?

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Thanks =) Hope this helps someway.

[aggie]

Wow, Great post. Thanks!!!

It's always extemely helpful seeing the thought processes of good players. And you went above and beyong. Thanks for taking the time [img]/images/graemlins/smile.gif[/img]