Fast or slow - flopped boat

[Catt]

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You're going to bet into a tight PF raiser on this flop?

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With 88/99/TT, yes, I will. This flop either hit Hero or not. If it hit him, he's either going to smoothcall or raise. If it missed him, he's going to be crapping his pants that I bet into the pf-raiser.

Assume the flop hit him. If he raises, I can release (or in certain cirtcumstances I might call one back and check-fold UI on the turn).

Assume the flop missed him. If he still calls my flop bet and I bet again on the turn, what is he going to do? I have the best hand and he likely has a gutshot draw. If it missed him and he raises on a bluff, I'm in the same position as I was when I assumed it hit him (fold or call, check-fold UI, all for the cost of 1 SB).

Assume the flop hit him and he smooth-calls my bet on the flop and the turn because he's tricky. Now my river decision is tougher, and I'm either bet-folding or check-calling. Either way, I paid 2 BBs and 1 SB to see the showdown. Your line has you paying 1 or 2 BBs on the turn, and after that action I presume you're putting in at least one more on the river? Even if you don't 3-bet the turn after you're raised in your line, I risk an extra SB in total for the reward of possibly winning the pot at the turn. Make sense or no?