Flopped nut straight, then saw a scary turn

[Rick Nebiolo]

[ QUOTE ]
So, I folded-he flipped over 22. I was posting this hand to see if anybody would think it's reasonable to check-fold here. I think the big question is-what would somebody call a pretty big check-raise with on this board?

[/ QUOTE ]

Why wouldn't villian push all in on the flop with a set? Should he really be that scared of a flopped straight or a bigger set? I can understand fear of monsters if the stacks are a lot deeper, but in Los Angeles even tight players gamble with moderate stack sizes relative to the blinds.

[ QUOTE ]
A diamond draw seems unlikely because unless he thinks he can stack me when an obvious scare card comes, he's probably incorrect to call this check re-raise.

[/ QUOTE ]

A diamond draw, especially one with a pair should believe it is worth $100 more to call on the flop. He has a clear shot at about $300 strange.

[ QUOTE ]
For anybody out there who thinks that a "solid player" would call a check RE-raise with TPTK on a 5-high board, I would honestly question what you think solid poker play is.

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If the stacks are huge, and he puts you on a hand, he can't call with less than a set (if he knows you are solid) because he risks a huge loss. But the stacks aren't huge, so you can have weaker hands than a set or straight (e.g, two pair).

[ QUOTE ]
And for anybody who says I should just push all in, the philosophy of "well, you've charged the draw plenty so when it's possible the guy hits on you you might as well finish the deal" is a good way to lose a lot of money. I think the only pertinent question is, given that this guy was clearly on a draw of some sort, would a diamond draw put in a half-sized, pot-comitting bet with position on the turn?

[/ QUOTE ]

Why wouldn't a good draw or a lessor made hand (or combo) often bet the turn after you (a player who obviously is capable of laying down) checked?

[ QUOTE ]
I thought that was unlikely enough that I could fold. Again, if you think a better line is called for, please explain it but I'm skeptical that getting all my chips in is the right answer here.

[/ QUOTE ]

Before the no limit poker explosion, folding is the default play. Post WPT, getting the money in is the default play [img]/images/graemlins/grin.gif[/img]

Regards,

Rick

[FoxwoodsFiend]

[ QUOTE ]
[ QUOTE ]
So, I folded-he flipped over 22. I was posting this hand to see if anybody would think it's reasonable to check-fold here. I think the big question is-what would somebody call a pretty big check-raise with on this board?

[/ QUOTE ]

Why wouldn't villian push all in on the flop with a set? Should he really be that scared of a flopped straight or a bigger set? I can understand fear of monsters if the stacks are a lot deeper, but in Los Angeles even tight players gamble with moderate stack sizes relative to the blinds.

[ QUOTE ]
A diamond draw seems unlikely because unless he thinks he can stack me when an obvious scare card comes, he's probably incorrect to call this check re-raise.

[/ QUOTE ]

A diamond draw, especially one with a pair should believe it is worth $100 more to call on the flop. He has a clear shot at about $300 strange.

[ QUOTE ]
For anybody out there who thinks that a "solid player" would call a check RE-raise with TPTK on a 5-high board, I would honestly question what you think solid poker play is.

[/ QUOTE ]

If the stacks are huge, and he puts you on a hand, he can't call with less than a set (if he knows you are solid) because he risks a huge loss. But the stacks aren't huge, so you can have weaker hands than a set or straight (e.g, two pair).

[ QUOTE ]
And for anybody who says I should just push all in, the philosophy of "well, you've charged the draw plenty so when it's possible the guy hits on you you might as well finish the deal" is a good way to lose a lot of money. I think the only pertinent question is, given that this guy was clearly on a draw of some sort, would a diamond draw put in a half-sized, pot-comitting bet with position on the turn?

[/ QUOTE ]

Why wouldn't a good draw or a lessor made hand (or combo) often bet the turn after you (a player who obviously is capable of laying down) checked?

[ QUOTE ]
I thought that was unlikely enough that I could fold. Again, if you think a better line is called for, please explain it but I'm skeptical that getting all my chips in is the right answer here.

[/ QUOTE ]

Before the no limit poker explosion, folding is the default play. Post WPT, getting the money in is the default play [img]/images/graemlins/grin.gif[/img]

Regards,

Rick

[/ QUOTE ]

Thanks for the posts. I agree with a lot of what you said actually, and I admit the reason I posted this is because despite what he had that hand I have my doubts if I took a proper line. With that said, don't you think you're overestimating the "only 100xbigblind=gamboool!" factor? Do you think that holding 22 on that board with that action it's an auto-push? Maybe the move isn't terrible but you seem to be saying I can rule out a set as opposed to a flush draw because it would be so odd for somebody to play a set so conservatively. At this point, it just becomes player-dependent (both whether he really respects my checkraises and whether I think he's afraid to push with a set on that flop). Your first post seems to ring true more than this one. Do you think that 100x the big blind is really a small enough stack that people are in auto-push mode anytime they get alot of action and a good piece of the flop?

[pete fabrizio]

Icky icky icky. You should have bet and you know it.

[aggie]

[ QUOTE ]
There is about $290 already in and villain only has about $300 more. So Hero is at least break even if he wins one time in three. I think he is close to even money so the money should go in.


[/ QUOTE ]

Yea...this is probably the most key point in the entire thread....It's why i don't like FF getting away from this hand.

[FoxwoodsFiend]

Yeah, I felt like I backed my way into the right play, but I still don't know how much I should have bet. Pete, you think I just push the turn and commit myself to losing my stack if he has a set here?

[aggie]

[ QUOTE ]
Pete, you think I just push the turn and commit myself to losing my stack if he has a set here?

[/ QUOTE ]

I like a stack commiting bet like $150 better....If he has a mid pocket pair you don't want to run him off his hand. And even with implied odds, it would be incorrect for villian to call with a flush draw....If he pushes all in, at this point, you have to call...

[FoxwoodsFiend]

Yeah, this is probably the right call. Even though he had 22 I was uncomfortable with my line and this seems like a better way to go.

[pete fabrizio]

[ QUOTE ]
Yeah, I felt like I backed my way into the right play, but I still don't know how much I should have bet. Pete, you think I just push the turn and commit myself to losing my stack if he has a set here?

[/ QUOTE ]

So there's around $290 in the pot and you have about $310 left? is that right? If you had $1000 behind, I'd say bet the pot (maybe a bit less) and then fold to a raise, so how can a pot-sized bet all-in be so bad? This is a frequently-made logical error - when one would be (rightfully) willing to lose a pot sized bet, but not willing to "lose my whole stack" - even though it is only pot sized.*

If you're pretty sure the person has a set, maybe you can finesse the pot by betting $100 and folding to a raise or something silly like that.

* Note: I understand that the analogy here isn't perfect. There are definitely situations where I would be willing to bet a fraction of a big stack where I wouldn't be willing to bet an equal sized all-in (e.g. if I'm bluffing and want to leverage the threat).

[Rick Nebiolo]

[ QUOTE ]
With that said, don't you think you're overestimating the "only 100xbigblind=gamboool!" factor?

[/ QUOTE ]

Perhaps a bit. In a restricted buy game (where the max buy is usually about 33 to 60 times the big blind here in LA) you get a lot more gamble when people are able to reload back or close to their original stack (often you can reload to 1.5 times the original buy-in). In an unrestricted buy-in game, having a stack of only 100 times the big blind is a little on the small side. If the player is on short money, he may be conservative, otherwise he may tend to go with a decent hand here.

[ QUOTE ]
Do you think that holding 22 on that board with that action it's an auto-push? Maybe the move isn't terrible but you seem to be saying I can rule out a set as opposed to a flush draw because it would be so odd for somebody to play a set so conservatively. At this point, it just becomes player-dependent (both whether he really respects my checkraises and whether I think he's afraid to push with a set on that flop). Your first post seems to ring true more than this one. Do you think that 100x the big blind is really a small enough stack that people are in auto-push mode anytime they get alot of action and a good piece of the flop?

[/ QUOTE ]

No, not an auto-push, put pushing is a possibility. Try to get into his head. With a set he believes is good, pushing is probably his play if he thinks he is up against a draw or pair/draw combo.

But what he did is call another $105. He could do this as a slowplay if he believes you are weaker. If he thinks you have the straight he can call with a set and get away from an all in bet on the turn (if the board doesn't pair). But he can't be so sure you flopped a straight - there are enough other possibilities. So his call could mean draw or set or weak draw/pair combo (example is the aforementioned A5). Also note that these days some calls can be very scary - he might believe a lot of turn cards will slow you down. In this case it did, giving let's say a flush draw two chances to hit.

He only folds on the flop if he believes he is behind a bigger set and IMO most opponents won't and shouldn't play that scared with this stack size.

In any event, because of stack sizes with any sort of made hand he really is deciding if he is committing all his chips on the flop. That doesn't mean he puts them all in on the flop though.

Regards,

Rick