Massive overbet -- is it worth it?

[Rococo]

2-5 NLH 5 handed

I have never played with Villain before. I have only been at the table for a few orbits but from what I can tell, Villain is LAG. He also is extremely obnoxious and berates every player that he perceives to be playing poorly. I doubt that he has any read on me, as I have played only a few uneventful hands since I sat down. I have approximately $580. Villain has me covered.

Preflop

Villain limps on Button. I check in the BB with K [img]/images/graemlins/heart.gif[/img] J [img]/images/graemlins/diamond.gif[/img]

Flop

Q [img]/images/graemlins/club.gif[/img] T [img]/images/graemlins/spade.gif[/img] 8 [img]/images/graemlins/diamond.gif[/img]. I bet $10. Villain raises to $25. I call.

Turn

2 [img]/images/graemlins/heart.gif[/img]

I check. Villain bets $40. I realize that I don't have the odds here, but I feel like my implied odds are great against this particular opponent so I call.

River

9 [img]/images/graemlins/club.gif[/img] I open push. Thoughts?

[Dubra]

I don't like it very much. You call the turn w/o odds (which is ok in my opinion, definitely player dependent) and then you put yourself in a position to not get anything out of him on the river. I think I'd actually be more incline to check if I think he will bet 3 out of 4 times. Also, you might consider making a small bet to entice a raise. I like either of these options better than open-pushing. To be honest, against these types of opponents I prefer to have them pot-commit themselves and then take their stack.

I like your play if you have been pushing him around or if you plan on using this play for image purposes, i.e. putting him all in every time you have him beat.

[fnord_too]

Well, I don't see a non jack betting if you check. Also, I don't see a non jack calling much if you bet. There is a good chance you will get a pissed off call from a 9J who is in for a rude awakening. Also, LAGs will sometimes just not believe you (since they like to bluff they sometimes project their tendencies onto their opponents).

I have been thinking about overbets a lot lately, and I think there are two situations where they make sense. One is where you have the nuts and won't likely get any action anyway. The other is if you do it in many situations as part of your overall strategy (ala the discussions in other threads). I think this clearly fits into the former but...

Your implied odds on the turn are not that great since there is already a straight possible, and one of you straight cards puts a 4 straight on the board. Having gotten there, it seems like pushing is as good as anything else.