AA on an interesting board (3/6)

[aK13]

UTG is loose preflop, and generally pretty passive, and just plain bad.

I have no read on button (unfortunately).

Party Poker 3/6 Hold'em (6 max, 5 handed) converter

Preflop: Hero is MP with A[img]/images/graemlins/heart.gif[/img], A[img]/images/graemlins/club.gif[/img].
UTG calls, <font color="#CC3333">Hero raises</font>, <font color="#CC3333">Button 3-bets</font>, <font color="#666666">2 folds</font>, UTG calls, <font color="#CC3333">Hero caps</font>, Button calls, UTG calls.

Flop: (13.33 SB) J[img]/images/graemlins/heart.gif[/img], T[img]/images/graemlins/heart.gif[/img], 7[img]/images/graemlins/diamond.gif[/img] <font color="#0000FF">(3 players)</font>
UTG checks, <font color="#CC3333">Hero bets</font>, <font color="#CC3333">Button raises</font>, UTG calls, <font color="#CC3333">Hero 3-bets</font>, Button calls, UTG calls.

Turn: (11.16 BB) 7[img]/images/graemlins/heart.gif[/img] <font color="#0000FF">(3 players)</font>
UTG checks, <font color="#CC3333">Hero bets</font>, <font color="#CC3333">Button raises</font>, UTG calls, Hero calls.

River: (17.16 BB) 7[img]/images/graemlins/spade.gif[/img] <font color="#0000FF">(3 players)</font>
UTG checks, Hero checks, <font color="#CC3333">Button bets</font>, UTG calls, Hero calls.

Main question is the river play. Should I raise, and what do I do against a 3bet? or should I donk? Is it close?

[wackjob]

C/R the river &amp; NEVER FOLD.. I'd probably cap a 3-bet since there are only 4 possible hands that can beat you.

Edited: to reflect misread of hands that beat you&gt;

[aK13]

[ QUOTE ]
C/R the river &amp; NEVER FOLD.. I'd probably cap a 3-bet since there are only 2 possible hands that can beat you that I see.. 89 [img]/images/graemlins/heart.gif[/img] or 7x.

[/ QUOTE ]

JJ/TT?

[TomBrooks]

You chop with AA.

Your're ahead of KK and QQ.

Your're behind JJ and TT.

TT is a less likely preflop three-betting hand, and KK and QQ are each statistically more likely than JJ or TT since there is not already one on the board, so I think your about a 60/40 favorite here. Factor in the chop and your safe 63.5% of the time. I'd take a chance and go for one or two more bets on the River.

[Nick C]

Well, let's see. A flush really isn't especially likely, unless Button is 3-betting hands that are much worse than K [img]/images/graemlins/heart.gif[/img] Q [img]/images/graemlins/heart.gif[/img] (the A [img]/images/graemlins/heart.gif[/img], J [img]/images/graemlins/heart.gif[/img] and T [img]/images/graemlins/heart.gif[/img] are all accounted for elsewhere).

I'm thinking the river card didn't change things all that drastically. We're still worried about JJ/TT (and maybe A7, a little), and we're hoping for KK/QQ or an overplayed AJ or JT-type hand.

If Button does have K [img]/images/graemlins/heart.gif[/img] Q [img]/images/graemlins/heart.gif[/img] or some other flush, though, there's a good chance he'll check behind. It's also possible he'll do that with a hand like Q [img]/images/graemlins/heart.gif[/img] Q [img]/images/graemlins/club.gif[/img] that picked up a flush draw on the turn to go with an overpair. So I hesitate to checkraise, partly for that reason and partly because I don't want to get 3-bet by a better boat.

I don't know. Donk the river, maybe? If Button raises again, though, and UTG now gets scared and goes away, then that's not so good.

I think I'm going to go with a river lead all the same. But I could be convinced another plan is better.

[spydog]

I would donk the river and call a raise. UTG has called a gazillion bets and he'll probably call 2 more. Button may check behind with KhQh, but still raise with KK or QQ. I'm not sure I like checkraising here and having to put in a 3rd bet if button has TT/JJ.

[baronzeus]

[ QUOTE ]
I would donk the river and call a raise. UTG has called a gazillion bets and he'll probably call 2 more. Button may check behind with KhQh, but still raise with KK or QQ. I'm not sure I like checkraising here and having to put in a 3rd bet if button has TT/JJ.

[/ QUOTE ]


i like checkraising better because you're ahead more than 66% here against his range (AA-TT, AJ)

[spydog]

[ QUOTE ]
[ QUOTE ]
I would donk the river and call a raise. UTG has called a gazillion bets and he'll probably call 2 more. Button may check behind with KhQh, but still raise with KK or QQ. I'm not sure I like checkraising here and having to put in a 3rd bet if button has TT/JJ.

[/ QUOTE ]


i like checkraising better because you're ahead more than 66% here against his range (AA-TT, AJ)

[/ QUOTE ]

Yeah, but my point is that he'll still raise with KK/QQ, but probably won't 3-bet you with those hands if you checkraise. He will 3-bet you if you are beat if you decide to checkraise. So, you get the same amount when you are ahead, assuming UTG will keep calling 2 cold, but lose less when you are behind.

[baronzeus]

first i think he 3bets with KK and QQ here if you raise, although i cant be sure.

second since you are ahead more often than you are behind (liek &gt;2x as much) you can raise here even tho he 3bets with JJ and TT every time