AJo in button vs CO

Brainwalter · #1 02-22-2005, 11:30 AM

villain has played tight his first 20 hands at the table.

Party Poker 5/10 Hold'em (9 handed) converter

Preflop: Hero is Button with A[img]/images/graemlins/heart.gif[/img], J[img]/images/graemlins/diamond.gif[/img].
5 folds, CO raises, Hero 3-bets, 2 folds, CO calls.

Flop: (7.40 SB) 6[img]/images/graemlins/diamond.gif[/img], J[img]/images/graemlins/club.gif[/img], 5[img]/images/graemlins/spade.gif[/img] (2 players)
CO checks, Hero bets, CO calls.

Turn: (4.70 BB) 2[img]/images/graemlins/spade.gif[/img] (2 players)
CO checks, Hero bets, CO raises, Hero 3-bets, CO caps, Hero folds.

Final Pot: 11.70 BB

chief444 · #2 02-22-2005, 11:43 AM

edit...misread post.

rmarotti · #3 02-22-2005, 11:47 AM

Ugh. You have TPTK heads up. Call down.

Brainwalter · #4 02-22-2005, 11:52 AM

[ QUOTE ]
villain has played tight his first 20 hands at the table

[/ QUOTE ]

Did you miss a word?

From what GT showed it was hard to tell anything. 22 hands, vp-12, pfr 0, postflop agg 0

So he limped in twice and check-folded.

Brainwalter · #5 02-22-2005, 11:55 AM

[ QUOTE ]
Ugh. You have TPTK heads up. Call down.

[/ QUOTE ]

Does that advice hold if I 3-bet the turn and he caps?

Go ahead and say a turn 3-bet is a bad idea if you think so, but suppose I do it, and he caps. Is calling down still a good idea?

Thanks for the response.

rmarotti · #6 02-22-2005, 11:57 AM

What are you talking about? this is what happened. Call the cap. Call a bet on the river, but yah, just calling the c/raise would've been better.

Chris Daddy Cool · #7 02-22-2005, 11:58 AM

your first mistake is 3-betting his turn checkraise.

given the way the hand is played here, you're dead against 3 sets of hands here, JJ,66,55 and drawing to 2 outs agaisnt AA and drawing to 5 outs against KK or QQ, and chopping with A [img]/images/graemlins/spade.gif[/img]J [img]/images/graemlins/spade.gif[/img] type hand. the problem is hwat kind of hands will the villian have after capping?

JJ - 1 combination
66 - 3 combos
55 - 3 combos
---------------------
7 combos, 0 outs

AA - 2 combos, 2 outs
---------------------
2 combos, 4 outs.

KK - 6 combos, 5 outs
QQ - 6 combos, 4 outs
------------------------
12 combos, 54 combos

21 total combos - 58 outs for a weighted average of 2.76 outs, so getting 11.7-1 on your call, you're not getting enough odds to spike here.

note though that you cannot simply use bayes here because you must often readjust and reassign their hands based on the action and situation. for example, there are many players who would not cap AA-QQ preflop for deception purposes to try to extract more postflop. however, oftne times they will become too aggro by overrepresenting their hands postflop after underrepresenting it preflop. and dont' forget that a hand like A [img]/images/graemlins/spade.gif[/img]J [img]/images/graemlins/spade.gif[/img] in the hands of an aggressive player could easily play a hand this way too.

in short you shouldn't have to make this cap fold because you should have just called down the turn c/r. but given that you didn't and decided to cap anyways, you probably made a good fold.

chief444 · #8 02-22-2005, 11:58 AM

Yea, sorry. I missed a word.

In that case I hate the turn 3-bet. You can call down for the same price and you likely have 5 outs if not the best hand. A chop is possible as well. When you are ahead the 3-bet may just cause him to lay down some pocket pair that had 2 outs. Thats not really that great either.

ScottTheFish · #9 02-22-2005, 12:04 PM

[ QUOTE ]

Go ahead and say a turn 3-bet is a bad idea if you think so, but suppose I do it, and he caps. Is calling down still a good idea?

[/ QUOTE ]

Don't like the turn 3-bet against an unknown. I'd call down after the turn raise.

Don't 3-bet if getting capped will make you fold...you can get to showdown for the same price and preserve your sanity

Brainwalter · #10 02-22-2005, 12:07 PM

OK, I was responding as if you had said "call down when he checkraises you"