JJ EP from session review

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Checkraising the turn costs the same as going to showdown.

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Sorry, I don't get that. We are OOP. So if we check/raise him on the turn, we need to be sure he will check behind on the river to pay the same # of BBs as check/calling him down. Or do you compare that to check/calling the turn and bet/calling the river? I'm not sure what lines you are comparing.

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The way OP played it, it costs 2BB to go to showdown. Check-raising costs the same as if he has the Ace he will almost always pop you again on the turn and you can fold, which costs 2BB. That's when you're behind.

If he just calls we are betting the river. This way we make more money when we're in front. If he just called and he had the Ace, no problem. You lost an extra BB but this is a player you know you can push around.

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If he just called and he had the Ace, no problem. You lost an extra BB but this is a player you know you can push around.

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Ah, ok. Being willing to lose an extra BB makes the difference.
Actually, just calling with an A here would then be the correct play for villain if you check-raise him, since he will win one bet more. And he let you push him around for a good purpose then [img]/images/graemlins/wink.gif[/img]

[adsman]

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If he just called and he had the Ace, no problem. You lost an extra BB but this is a player you know you can push around.

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Ah, ok. Being willing to lose an extra BB makes the difference.
Actually, just calling with an A here would then be the correct play for villain if you check-raise him, since he will win one bet more. And he let you push him around for a good purpose then [img]/images/graemlins/wink.gif[/img]

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That kind of opponent is very dangerous. That's third level thinking. Thankfully very rare at these levels.

I had a brain hernia thinking about this.

I think against an unknown your line is not great, but fine. Exposes you to the least losses but the least gains and gets you to showdown every time.

At first I didn't like giving a free card but...
I don't see many hands NOT betting this turn if checked to.

If, on the turn, you were behind, you saved money.

If ahead, villian bets your hand for you.

If he checks through, the worst hand for you he could hold is the unlikely KQ. Bad news if he did stick around on the flop as he has 6 outs and the reason it's worst is he likely would have folded the turn to a bet.

But other than the flush draw, I think his most likely holdings are an 8, PP or an A.

If he has the flush draw AND checks the turn, he would have come anyway if you bet and you would have only ever made .8BB from him, as he folds the river UI anyway.

The good news is, if he bluffs with any of the hands that you beat, he is almost compelled to bluff the river aswell. In most cases you will get more or the same amount of bets when ahead and lose less when behind.


But I think Adsman's line has a lot of merit.
Because so many hands will bet this turn, a c/r may be the way to go. I'd feel very confident folding to a 3bet. But if he doesn't 3bet, your plan works perfectly and from a metagame standpoint may be worth more dollars against this player in the longrun than this play in it's own right.

Line 1. b/c, c/c (no free cards) wins 0-3, loses 3
Line 2. c/c, c/c (The showdown) wins 0-2, loses 2
Line 3. c/r/f, b (The Adsman) wins 0-3, loses 2

Fairly simplified, but Adsman's line I think is best.

I think Line 1 works against a hyperLAG or LPP/calling station.
I think Line 2 may have a place against an overly bluffy or tricky opponent.
I think Line 3 works against most players and best against an unknown.

I think the best solution is to flop quads. [img]/images/graemlins/grin.gif[/img]

[brazilio]

bet/fold turn

[WriterBoy]

Ok, so he was the only caller...and he cold called on the button. Which means he had to have something other than a draw hand. So what....small to med pp?
It is possible that he had an Ax also.
My guess would be K8s, saw the 8 and decided to ride to the river hoping to fill up. He obviously did not think you had an ace.
So, in my opinion checking the turn is a big mistake. Since you are out of position, you're in trouble either way. If you bet he could raise and represent the ace, or if you check he could bet out knowing now that you don't have an ace either. Personally, I say you bet the turn and fold if raised.

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Line 3. c/r/f, b (The Adsman) wins 0-3, loses 2


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That assumes that villain will either fold the river or call with a worse hand. It ignores the fact that villain is either quite smart or very weak and calls you down with his A or raises you on the river. Then you lose 3. And I think it's not a too far-fetched result.

hey guys, thanks for all the analysis.

i think now ive moved up a level i definitely need to find more bet/fold lines that as far as i can see were almost useless at .5/1 where often the raise tells you nothing (comparitively to 1/2 at least).

anyway, ill come back tomorrow and post the results as well as my own full analysis (although i think i may change my position to agree with adsman, his makes a lot more sense)

First, note that this is not a big pot. Your hand was compromised by the A on the flop, but you nonetheless played aggressively. OK, you played aggressively, but then you failed to lead out on the turn.

I don't understand why you failed to lead out on the turn. Are you less beaten by one A than two? You appear committed to the pot anyway; why not behave consistently? If he has an A--a big if, imho--he will raise, and you can bow out gracefully, losing little. IT'S A SMALL POT. If he does not raise, you then may lead out or check the river as you wish.

A lead on the river might induce a fold, and it is consistent. Make that, consistently aggressive. It serves warning to your opponent and to the other players at the table you will defend your holdings, and press an advantage. This is +ev in every way, an enhanced table image is always +ev. The leadout on the river may even induce a bluff raise, or a legitimate raise. So what? You suck it up and pay the buck. In fact, if anyone was behaving weak tight, it was hero here, and other players must surely have noted it. I wonder how your session ended?

Cost, one (that's one) extra bet, at most. Impaired standing at the table? Maybe many bets.

[adsman]

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I don't understand why you failed to lead out on the turn. Are you less beaten by one A than two?

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Just because you may still have the winning hand, it doesn't necesarily mean that leading out is best.

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You appear committed to the pot anyway; why not behave consistently?

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Don't you mean, predictably?