Seeing Monsters

[Ironman]

Full Loose game at UB .5/1

I'm dealt A [img]/images/graemlins/club.gif[/img] A [img]/images/graemlins/heart.gif[/img] 2 [img]/images/graemlins/heart.gif[/img] 5 [img]/images/graemlins/diamond.gif[/img] in the cut off.

I raise when it gets to me and get four people to put in the second bet.

(There is only one other strong player at the table according to PT and he is not in this hand.)

Flop 8 [img]/images/graemlins/diamond.gif[/img] 9 [img]/images/graemlins/heart.gif[/img] 8 [img]/images/graemlins/heart.gif[/img]

Checked around to me. I bet and get two callers (one of which is the button).

Turn 8 [img]/images/graemlins/spade.gif[/img]

Checked to the button...who bets.

I call (but am not happy about it). The other guy folded.

River A [img]/images/graemlins/spade.gif[/img]

Fearing the case 8 [img]/images/graemlins/club.gif[/img] I check and call.


At the time I remember thinking that he could very easily have the 8, but looking back on it, I would have thought he would have raised the flop if he had the set at that time.

I feel like I missed a bet here...or two, but I'm just not sure.

Maybe defense is the best policy with this set up. He had a 10, J, Q and looking for a straight...I swear.

What do you all think?

Dave

[muse21]

[ QUOTE ]


Maybe defense is the best policy with this set up. He had a 10, J, Q and looking for a straight...I swear.

What do you all think?

Dave

[/ QUOTE ]

I think you exercise good game selection! [img]/images/graemlins/cool.gif[/img]

The 8 is one of the least likely cards for a good opponent to have in a raised pot. At this table, anyone could have anything.

I probably would have played it the same way.

[bodie]

oddly enough I just had the same hand happen to me, except I had pocket Kings at the time. This was in a live game and Seat 1 kept betting out, I kept calling. When the third eight hit on the turn, it was a tough decision, but something made me read him for a bluff, so I called through to the end - my only other choice would have been to raise (or fold). It turned out I was right, he was bluffing and I scooped with Kings full of eights!
I think you did the right thing, because it was such a loose table (I mean, look at what he ended up having!) - you couldn't really count on anything, he could have easily had the case 8, so why bet into him.

[bodie]

P.S. - after the hand another player told me that I should have raised, and he would have folded - but then I thought - "Why?" - I gained more bets by just calling, he was trying to bluff me off the hand. And if he would have had the 8, and just called to continue the bluff - I would have been losing more.

[Ironman]

It was a REALLY good game...I kept expecting you to notice and stop by. [img]/images/graemlins/smile.gif[/img]

Dave

[Buzz]

Dave - It's not exactly a monster under the bed.

Four opponents saw the flop with you. There were 16 cards dealt to your four opponents. Hard to say at the level you're playing how much less likely an opponent would be to see the flop with 8XYZ than with various other starting hands. But anybody who did see the flop with 8XYZ would almost surely continue after a flop of 889 - but might not necessarily raise.

As the cards lie on the river, there are 43 unknown cards, of which 16 were dealt to your four opponents who saw the flop with you.

If there's a random chance of one of them having a hand with the case eight, the probability of encountering an eight in the hand of Button on the river is C(42,15)/C(43/16) = 0.372. The odds are roughly 5 to 3 against Button having the case eight if your four opponents had a random chance of having a hand with an eight.

There probably wasn't quite a random chance of an eight. Probably less. How much less at the limit you're playing? Who knows? I'd guess maybe a more realistic odds estimate might be 6 to 3 against, or about 2 to 1 against - something in that neighborhood.

You're certainly going to call with aces full. Thus whatever is already in the pot is yours if you have a winner.

The issue is purely how much you can extract from Button if Button doesn't have the case eight. If Button doesn't have the case eight, you might get nothing by betting - but you might collect from Button trying to steal the pot. And if Button does have the case eight, you're going to get hammered by betting.

So it's really very clear. You check and call here.

...only this and nothing more...

Buzz