Final hand. A fun one.

[Entity]

Live 10/20. At this point in the session, the worst hand I have shown down is AJ UI that I raised after limpers. I've being doing my fair share of isoraising but getting away with it. My image is very likely that of a solid player who tends to be very aggressive postflop, but almost entirely with reason.

Limper #1 limps. He's bad, passive, readable. Limps with any two connected, one gappers probably 86o and above, any broadway, raises decent broadway and good aces. Raises good pairs 99+.

Limper #2, a horrible 60/25/1 LAG, limps as well.

I raise A[img]/images/graemlins/heart.gif[/img]T[img]/images/graemlins/heart.gif[/img] in the CO with a 2+2er OTB. 2+2er folds and the SB folds. BB, a calling-stationish player, calls. He's probably 50/5/.5. Limper #1 calls, now LAG limp-reraises. I make it 4-bets, and everyone calls. 4 to the flop, 16.5SB.

The flop is K[img]/images/graemlins/heart.gif[/img]7[img]/images/graemlins/club.gif[/img]9[img]/images/graemlins/spade.gif[/img]. Checked to me and I bet. Everyone calls.

The turn is the 8[img]/images/graemlins/heart.gif[/img]. Checked to me. I bet.

[private joker]

PF I might just call the limp-reraise. He's a LAG, but are you sure you're not dominated by a better ace?

I might take the free card on the flop if you think there's a decent chance of getting checkraised. You might still have the best hand, but you don't want to get too involved until you're sure.

The turn bet is mucho obvious. OESD + nut flush draw + overcard = value bet. Who cares if you get checkraised; you have 15 outs to a probable winner.

[goofball]

Unless you've seen him LRR with crap before I've noticed even lags tend to have something when they LRR (side note: I isoraised this guy at the wynn with a huge range for about 2 days until he finally got sick of it and limp reraised me with 99)

Anyway, I tend to give at least some respect to teh limp reraise and ATs isn't that good anyway.

I would check behind on the flop. YOu don't really have a hand, you're in a pot iwth lots of people any of whom could be planning a checkraise and I don't want to have to fold without seeing the turn.

Of coures you bet the turn.

[DeathDonkey]

This is super duper standard all the way through. Post these in micro dude.

-DeathDonkey

[jason_t]

Standard.

[bernie]

[ QUOTE ]
My image is very likely that of a solid player who tends to be very aggressive postflop, but almost entirely with reason.


[/ QUOTE ]

This assumes your opponents are capable of identifying a solid player and reasonable aggression. Many times the aggression will look overboard to them. Reasonable to them is what they themselves are capable of doing. Just a thought.

I'd have checked the flop, raised the turn if bet into other wise bet the turn if checked to.

b

[Lurker4]

PF I think is good if the LAG is one of those random LAGs that will LRR all kinds of stuff here. You might get BB/Limper1 to fold (unlikely) but if not you likely have more than your fair share of equity and you're in position. I check the flop and I don't think it's very close; it's a huge pot and no one is folding any semblance of a made hand, draw, A high, whatever. Betting may get you a free turn card if/when you turn one of several of your backdoor draws but I think that's mitigated by the fact that you may get c/r'ed in one or more spots here and you have to call the c/r. Turn bet is good 4-way w/your 15+ outs/very high pot equity.

[krishanleong]

To everyone who likes the turn bet...

Do we think we have the best hand? If so what %?

What are the chances of being check raised? What are the chances of winning the pot with a turn bet.

Here are my answers.

1. I don't think we are ahead here more than 2% of the time. Too many calling stations with a couple cards in the playing zone.

2. I don't think we take it down with a turn bet very often at all. I think most of the time, some sort of pair calls us and we have to rely on our outs. (I think we have 9 flush outs, 4 straight outs discounted because it's a one card straight and potentially a split out, and 1.5 outs for the aces - total 14.5 outs which is about 31%ish equity?)

So if we are getting called most of the time, what % are we going to get check raised? Well your image is good so you will be check raised less. But the flop is really bad since a K high uncoordinated board where you get 4 callers makes it very likely that you are up against a pair and somewhat likely that you are up against a K. There is always a chance someone is slowplaying kings up or a set. People always say it's not a bad thing if the turn goes bezerk when you have such a good draw but I'm sure the EV is less compared to checking the turn given the opportunity. One more point in favor of not worrying about a check raise is the most likely player to check raise is the LAG on your right. A check raise by him will do the least damage as the callers in between will be trapped.

Conclusion? I don't think the turn is a clear cut bet. With two cards to come I think it would be hard to argue with an open-ended straight flush draw but on the turn against 3 opponents that called a flop bet on a king high uncoordinated board, I think you have to at least call it sorta close. [img]/images/graemlins/smile.gif[/img]

If you told me the calling stations would call the turn 90% of the time or that they would fold anything but kings to a turn bet, or that people routinely call the flop with 2 uncoordinated undercards I would say it's an easy bet too.

Krishan

[krishanleong]

Another way to think about it.

For everytime you bet, do you get 2 or 3 callers as often as you get 1 caller?

For everytime you get check raised, do you get 2-3 people seeing the river as often as you get 1?

Yeah, still seems like an easy bet. Just too much equity with 1/3rd of the deck on your side.

So basically the only time a turn bet is bad is when you only get 1 caller or you get checkraised and it's heads up. I'm convinced these scenrios are in the minority.

Thanks for staying with my rambling.

Krishan

[QTip]

[ QUOTE ]
raised the turn if bet into

[/ QUOTE ]

I would like you to clarify this please.

I think there are a lot of situations (much more often than not) where raising the turn here would be incorrect, and quite possibly a large mistake.