Re-learning how to laydown top pair... standard?

TheMetetron · #1 11-30-2005, 09:56 PM

No PT stats and 8 tabling isn't conducive to regular reads.

I've been 12-tabling $5/10 short on non-Party sites for the past 2-3 weeks, so I just want to re-establish some things for myself.

This is standard right?

Party Poker 10/20 Hold'em (6 max, 6 handed) converter

Preflop: Hero is CO with Q[img]/images/graemlins/spade.gif[/img], A[img]/images/graemlins/heart.gif[/img].
2 folds, Hero raises, 2 folds, BB calls.

Flop: (4.50 SB) 2[img]/images/graemlins/heart.gif[/img], A[img]/images/graemlins/spade.gif[/img], 4[img]/images/graemlins/club.gif[/img] (2 players)
BB checks, Hero bets, BB raises, Hero 3-bets, BB calls.

Turn: (5.25 BB) 5[img]/images/graemlins/club.gif[/img] (2 players)
BB checks, Hero bets, BB raises, Hero folds.

Final Pot: 8.25 BB

joseki · #2 11-30-2005, 10:29 PM

I think this is probably a good fold, as it's hard to put him on a hand other than 22/44 or perhaps a small ace. Even so, I'd likely call down an unknown, as there aren't too many hands that beat you and there are plenty of wacky players in this game.

Lurker4 · #3 11-30-2005, 10:40 PM

Without reads I think I at least call the turn getting 8-1, due to you possibly having 3-9 outs to win, nearly always 4 to tie, and the small possibility being ahead to a bluff/semibluff that will give up on the turn once you call, thinking you will likely showdown. A2-A5 plays this way as as much as 22/44 since your line looks like a strong ace, and there are 18 combos of the two-pair aces against which you have on average 8 outs against, and only 6 combos of the hands you are only drawing to a split against.

adamstewart · #4 11-30-2005, 11:33 PM

Tough decision here. In actual play, I doubt I'd have the discipline to even think about laying this down.

You're getting 8:1 for your turn call. Assuming all of your outs are clean, that's even money for a call to try to improve your hand to two-pair or trips. However, your 5 potential outs are not always clean here, obviously, as villain often already has hands like 44, 22, A4, A2 .... In which case, you really don't have much in the way of implied odds as you can't be confident about raising the river even when you do hit your hand.

On the other hand, you may have the best hand here. After all, you did open-raise from the CO position, and BB may take this as a steal attempt. So, he could be overplaying hands like AJ, AT, A9 ...

Considering all of the above, it's probably a close call, but I think FOLDING (as you did) is the best play. You've shown a lot of strength throughout this hand, including a flop 3-bet, yet this guy is continuing to check-raise you on the turn (often indicative of a stronger hand). It just seems like more than not he's gonna have two-pair or a set.

Having said all that, again, I'm still not sure I'd be able to lay this down in actual play, while multi-tabling. But then again, hopefully I've learned something from my own response to this thread. [img]/images/graemlins/tongue.gif[/img]

Nice hand.

EDIT: Just read one of the others' responses and realized you have an additional 4 potential outs for a gutshot.

Thus, disregard my entire above post. These additional outs make this an easy call on the turn. Then, on the river, you should probably call down getting 10:1 with Top-Pair-2nd-Kicker.

I've left the original post intact. As it answers a related question: What would you do without the gutshot draw?

Adam

oreogod · #5 12-01-2005, 12:12 AM

Well here is the real story, morning glory. I did a weighed outs division, and it look like at most u had 3-4outs, (counting the gutshot as 2 outs, because u are not playing for the whole pot, only half).

Now I do a Pstove analysis...as seen below:

Majority Range:

17,820 games 0.110 secs 162,000 games/sec

Board: 2h As 4c
Dead:

equity (%) win (%) tie (%)
Hand 1: 16.7144 % 15.49% 01.23% { AhQs }
Hand 2: 83.2856 % 82.06% 01.23% { 44, 22, A4s, A2s, A4o, A2o }

Minority Range: (if u felt so inclined u could add A3 in and that would boost equity to 35 percent)

32,670 games 0.020 secs 1,633,500 games/sec

Board: 2h As 4c
Dead:

equity (%) win (%) tie (%)
Hand 1: 25.7821 % 24.76% 01.03% { AhQs }
Hand 2: 74.2179 % 73.19% 01.03% { A5s, 53s, 42s, A5o, 53o, 42o }

Okay, so now what?:

Do a sweet little calc as follows...giving majority range full reign 90 percent of the time and the minority 10 percent of the time and we get:

.9(16.75) + .1 (25.78) = 15.08+2.58 = 17.66 percent equity which ~4.66:1 odds to improve or effective odds to call down (meaning if u wanted to call down to showdown, ud need 4.66:1 effective odds calling a turn and river bet.).

Conclusion: By no means is this the a thread ender (it might be, dunno), but when I first read your hand, I was not a big fan of the fold. Going by the math of Pstove, I still dont like it. The only reservations are the weighed division I did before Pstove which gave u 3-4 outs. I wonder how Pstove calculates split pot outs, as this could effect the math a bit. Anyway, thats my two cents.

Victor · #6 12-01-2005, 12:45 AM

no freakin way i fold without a read.

Lmn55d · #7 12-01-2005, 01:10 AM

i dont fold either

ddubois · #8 12-01-2005, 02:33 AM

It's not a huge part of his range, but worse one-pair aces play this way when they are suited in clubs. I think you have too many hidden outs to fold.

Victor · #9 12-01-2005, 04:43 AM

if the guy is 50/10/1.5 then its an easy calldown.

if he is 50/5/.5 then its a pretty good fold.

Wynton · #10 12-01-2005, 09:57 AM

Isn't it considerably more likely villain has A4 or A2 (rather than trips), meaning you have 6 clean outs to win (Qs and 5s), and perhaps another 4 to split (gutshot)?