Equity/Counting Outs in LO8.

[Boolean]

I'm a relative novice to the game, but so far, so good. I've read a lot of the few online articles and I've been lurking here for a while. Unlike in hold 'em, however, I find counting outs to be quite difficult since there's no standard guide for such, ie, it's mostly situational. I found myself jamming a lot of pots when I have the nut flush draw against 3 or more players, and I was wondering if it's a bad play. Of course, having a draw to the nut low certainly helps, but how about in these scenarios *without* a low possibility?

1. None to a low, no paired board cards
2. One to a low, no pair
3. Two to a low, no pair

I was just wondering how you figure out your outs and equity in these situations. Of course, with a pair on the board, I could be drawing dead, and even if the board isn't paired, I can be up against a set if I'm getting a lot of action. This isn't something I'm going to learn in one sitting of course, but some general guides or tools I can use to practice this would be great.

Thanks,
-Boolean

[chaos]

It is not clear whether you are asking about play on the flop or play on the turn.

If there is no low possible yet, your opponents likely have strong high hands to be betting and raising. In general I would not be putting in raises with only a nut flush draw. You only have a draw. There is the chance that you make you flush on the turn only to have the board pair on the river giving someone else a better hand. There is also the chance that you make your flush and someone else makes a low so you are only playing for half the pot.

Do not draw for flushes on a paired flop. As you said in your post, you can be drawing dead.

On the turn you have two types of out. Outs that give you a nut flush without pairing the board or putting three low cards up. These outs will win you the whole pot. You may also have outs that will give you the nut flush without pairing the board but put three low cards on board. These will win you half the pot.

I generally do not try and count outs at the table for play on the flop. There are simply too many two card combinations.

[jedi]

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Do not draw for flushes on a paired flop. As you said in your post, you can be drawing dead.


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And even if you're not drawing dead, you might only be drawing to as little as 3 outs. Example, on a QhQsTs board where you have As4sxx, and you have 2 opponents with Q235 and Q89K (and no spades), only the Js, 7s, and 6s are good cards for you. In low limit Omaha, this is what opened up my eyes to the futility of drawing to flushes and straights on paired boards.

[ QUOTE ]


On the turn you have two types of out. Outs that give you a nut flush without pairing the board or putting three low cards up. These outs will win you the whole pot. You may also have outs that will give you the nut flush without pairing the board but put three low cards on board. These will win you half the pot.

I generally do not try and count outs at the table for play on the flop. There are simply too many two card combinations.

[/ QUOTE ]

I think it's important to realize just how different Hold Em flush draws are from Omaha/8 flush draws. Sometimes I even throw away nut flush draws with no other draws because of this (though, that's probably pretty weak). Having nut draws + redraws or nut draws + back-up lows/back-up non-nut highs are way, way better than just having the nut draw.

In Hold em, if you have a nut flush draw, it's usually correct to be betting and raising for value. In Omaha, especially Omaha/8, it's not necessarily the case.

Hmmm, now that I read what I wrote, I'm sure I've been playing wrong for a while now.

[gergery]

Not chasing a flush if the board is paired is good advice in general, but as always you need to consider pot odds as well.
I will generally try to count outs that will make the nut hand, but the main difference vs. holdem is that you need to discount your outs to a much greater extent than in holdem.
I have a post in my blog on a counting outs hand if you’re interested.
-g

[benwood]

It seems like we're still not responding to the question of how to count outs in Omaha.Here's a specific example that hopefully will generate some response.
Board:As,Qd,Jh,5s.
Your hand:Ks,9s,8d,2c,in big blind.
4BB's in pot.You check,he bets.You have 1 out(10s)that will give you a scoop & you will win 5 BB's.You have 2 tainted outs(Qs,Js)that will give you a scoop if it doesn't fill op up,in which case you get zip.(You lose your BB.)You have 6 outs(8,7,6,4,3,2)that will win you 1/2 the pot,& you will win 2 BB's.
This is a relatively straight forward situation since it's on the turn on an unpaired board with no one to act behind you.
Still,like Boolan,I need help counting outs on this hand to decide whether the call is mathmatically sound.It doesn't look like a call,but it's the decision process that we are interested in rather than the right play on this particular example hand.
Anyone?

[benwood]

In the example problem of my previous post,I said that 6 outs will give you 1/2 of the pot.But this is not true.Whenever op has no low,these 6 outs will give you the whole pot.Let's assume,for the sake of the problem,that when you hit the Qs or Js,that you estimate it will fill op up 25% of the time,& if you hit one of the 6 low outs,op will make a low 80% of the time.Does the call produce a plus EV or a negative EV?

[benwood]

RE:The problem posed in my last 2 posts.
If:C=no.of bets called=1.X=no.of bets returned=?.H1=no.of clean outs=1.H2=no.of tainted outs=2.B1=no.of bets rec'd if you win high=5.B2=no.of bets rec'd if you win low=2.P1=estimate of%of time that tainted cards are good=.75.P2=estimate of%of time low outs will scoop=.20.L=no.of low cards out=6.U=no.of unknown cards=44.
Then:
X=(H1)(B1)+[(P1)(H2)](B1)+[(P2)(L)](B1)+[(1-P2)(L)](B2)overU
X=(2)(5)+[(.75)(2)](5)+[(.2)(6)](5)+[(.8)(6)](2)over 44
X=10+6.5+6+9.6/44=32.1/44=.727=.73
Therefore,if your estimates are correct,for the 1 bet that you call,you will only get back.73 of a bet.Fold this puppy.
This has been fun.But it would be a complete miracle if these calculations were correct.If any of you good math guys would like to check this out,I would appreciate it.