Reasonable shot at protection?

In addition to this the low nature of the second and third pairs make it less likely that
A) they are out and
B) They will stick around for two bets on the flop.

[Nick Royale]

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What are you trying to protect? A payoff hand like AQ? If Button has AK or KQ, you're drawing slim to dead. Even if he has JJ/TT you have 6 dirty outs plus a backdoor prayer. I'd peel if you're feeling saucy, or else just fold. This flop sucks for you and there are a lot of opponents to get through.

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I'd be amazed if we don't have a lot of situations here where we have more than 10% equity. Folding now gives up 2sb. Might as well make the best of em and do what you can.

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Since it's definately not sure we're seeing the river thinking in terms of equity isn't the way to go here. But we have 1.5 outs for our bdfd so and I would be amazed if our weak A/Q/bdsd-outs would make up for the rest of the 0.75 outs required to call. In this case we might even be able to count our bdfd as more than 1.5 outs since our implied odds will be great when hitting in a pot as big as this with 6 players. However, I think folding this flop would be bad.

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The fact that there are several players in the hand does merit continuing, but after hero raises the flop, how many of those players other than the sb are calling? KJ/KT or worse will probably call, as will sets and straight draws. Hitting the backdoor flush or straight will not pay off that much if it's only hero and sb in the hand.

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If it becomes HU we definately have more than 2.25 outs.

[chesspain]

Does anyone else not like the preflop reraise--assuming that one or no limpers are folding?

[QTip]

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In addition to this the low nature of the second and third pairs make it less likely that
A) they are out and
B) They will stick around for two bets on the flop.

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Are you saying you think it's unlikely that a small and/or mid pp is in the field? If so, why?

This would apply to any pp, which certainly could be out there. And that's why I'm saying raising could get them out. If we just c/c the flop, they can peel.

I am saying it is unlikely someone has a 4 or a 5 in their hole cards and it is also unlikely that IF they do have one they will stick around for two bets.

[mterry]

I think it depends on your feel for your opponents response to your aggression. I've been in sshe games that are loose preflop and weak/tight postflop. These types of players often incorrectly fold to flop c/rs. In this particular 2/4 game,how loose are the player postflop?

[MrDannimal]

I've read all the responses, and I'm not going to get into the debate on whether a raise here is a good idea or not but the idea of raising here for protection is silly.

Your raise here offers the first caller 11:1, and if you get 2 callers (not at all unreasonable at the PP 2/4) in addition to the Button your lead out on the turn is offering like 14:1.

[MrDannimal]

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and it is also unlikely that IF they do have one they will stick around for two bets

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Huh? If someone has a 4 or 5 here, they've got 5 outs to two pair or trips. The idea that they'd fold here getting 11:1 or better (even if they're totally unaware of odds, they're going to call with a pair in a huge pot at this level) is boggling.

Oy.

[deception5]

Hi all, sorry I didn't get back sooner but you know how things get at Thanksgiving [img]/images/graemlins/smile.gif[/img]

Rather than post a bunch of replies, here's a consolidated one...

QTip:

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This has some simularities and some twists and this post I made yesterday.

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I absolutely agree, I had just looked over that post before I played this hand. There are a few notable differences - namely you have position in that hand but I have a bigger pot in this one. I think both are quite interesting.

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Please post the rest of the hand in here at some point, as I'm interested to see how it played out.


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I definitely will, although there's some very interesting discussion right now so I'll wait a bit longer to post them. I'd be happy to PM them if you're very curious. I'll probably post the rest of the flop action soon and the hand results in a few days.

Thanks for the bump btw [img]/images/graemlins/smile.gif[/img]

NickRoyale:

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Betting with nothing into 5 opponents in a pot that has been 3-betted preflop isn't likely at all. Just because he's on the button doesn't mean he'll bet with crap imo.

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Yeah I was wondering this - how often he would bet here with a missed ace in an attempt at a free card. Certainly JJ/TT/QQ are all possibilities as are AA/AK/KK/KQ. I think AA/AK/KK are very likely to 3-bet here. Also interesting to think what range my opponent would put me on here as clearly I'm leading AK/KK/AA (I personally think this is one of the most interesting questions about this hand - what does he think I have?). Final thought is that all of the limpers checked the flop making it less likely that anyone does actually have a king (other than possibly the button). If one of them had bet I'd be more likely to call/fold depending on the action behind them.

MisterKing:

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I wonder if you might expand on what your plan is for the turn after C/R the flop. What do you do if a queen hits? An ace? A spade? A brick?

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There are a few factors to take into consideration. First it depends how many call the raise. If it's 6 to the turn there's no way I'm leading out unimproved. If it's shorthanded I'm leading out a lot of turns. Certainly any Q/A/spade. Probably not a brick/2/3.

chesspain:

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Does anyone else not like the preflop reraise--assuming that one or no limpers are folding?

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I can see reasons for just calling, but I think a lot of these limpers are likely to have mid/low pocket pairs, dominated hands, etc. With a huge hand that plays well multiway like AQs I think this is a pretty good value raise. I'd love to discuss further though.

KathleenStand, QTip, MrDannimal:

Some interesting discussion about whether pocket pairs or hands like A4/A5 are going to fold. I think it's very likely they do (and this cleans up my straight/tp outs). They can't assume they are getting 11:1 or better because the flop better has a chance to reraise. This was one of the things I liked best about raising. Of course if I do get 3-bet I'm likely in big trouble but this makes the turn a likely check/fold unless I pick up a strong draw.

[deception5]

Bump