I hit my draw...now what?

[MisterKing]

[ QUOTE ]
What reasonable player in the CO raises this river to my donk out of nowhere with less than a boat?

[/ QUOTE ]

Ok, fine. But so many of these guys aren't reasonable. I don't recall from OP as to whether we have reads here, but if we do not, and hero donkbets the river, middle guy folds, LP raises, I want to 3-bet. As previously stated, I want to bet/call if the guy in the middle calls my initial donkbet -- for reasons already explained I think we win the most and lose the least with this play (in part because if we bet/3bet and get capped with a caller in the middle, we're still not folding but are beat an insane % of the time).

[MrDannimal]

My first thought was bet/3-bet (before reading responses). CO cold-calls PF, then is never played back at. UTG is raised on the flop and calls the raise and the turn bet. He doesn't re-raise the turn A, so he doesn't have one (or he has teeny-tiny balls).

It's 3 times more likely that CO has a naked ace than a boat, if you're assuming he has an ace (If you're willing to give him A3 or A4, then any A is possible and there are 3 kickers that boat and 9 that don't). Yes, he can have 33 or 44 (or AA, god forbid), but an ace is more likely IMO.

If you bet and UTG folds, then he wasn't going to call CO's bet and your call/raise. If UTG calls and folds to your 3-bet, then you get 4 bets if it's not capped. Same as if UTG calls 2 bets if you just call CO's raise. If UTG calls one bet but not a raise, you only get 3 bets (and this is one case where you won't know until too late. If you 3-bet, you're going to almost certainly get 1+3 bets, and maybe 3+3).

I REALLY think that CO has a boat here infrequently. I also think that most people aren't going to instantly see 56 as a holding if you donk out the river. When you 3-bet, maybe. I just think that in the long run you gain more bets 3-betting than you would lose calling a cap.

[ErrantNight]

while it's true CO is more likely a naked A than a boat... it's not like his play is inconsistent with a boat.

since getting capped sucks so hard, and 3-betting probably loses us the middleman (assuming he calls our donkbet), calling seems like a winning proposition here.

[Harv72b]

Okay, for starters, the three lines I was thinking of were:

-Bet/call; many people described the benefits of this line vs. the potential drawbacks of bet/3-bet, and I now think this is probably the best line here.

-Check/raise & call a 3-bet; I don't like this line because, as others said, it makes it very likely that UTG will fold whatever he's calling down with, and if we get 3-bet after a river check/raise I think we're up against a full house a very large percentage of the time.

-Check/call; I don't think anyone got behind this option, but it does have its merits--this makes it much more likely that UTG will overcall with his mystery holding, and we don't risk being 3-bet or capped by a full house. The problem is that we also don't get value for our straight when it is good.

As for what I was thinking during the hand...

Play on the first three streets was pretty standard; as I said in an earlier reply, when I checked the flop I was planning to c/r if UTG bet (as expected) and there were 2 or more callers. When everyone folded to CO, who then raised, I didn't see any value whatsoever in a c/r, as that makes it more likely that UTG will fold if he doesn't have the ace, and I don't have an equity advantage in a HU pot. The only time it could possibly work to my advantage is if neither UTG nor CO have an ace or set, which I think is practically never. So I just coldcalled instead, which could have been interpreted as a draw, a weak/medium ace, or just a donk move (it was my first hand at the table remember, and if I didn't have any hands on the villains it was fairly unlikely that they had any on me). Incidentally, I could actually have called two here with a hand like 45 as well; even with it two bets to me, I'm getting nearly 8:1 to call.

However, this hand just gave me a sinking feeling in my stomach from the get go. I just felt that CO had flopped a set, to the point where after I called the turn bet I actually chastised myself for it; I felt I should have folded right there. It made perfect sense to me--the flop was pretty drawless for hands that any sane player would have coldcalled with, and everyone always assumes the PFR has an Ace; if CO held something like AK, I would have expected him to 3-bet preflop with position on the field. If he held AQ or weaker, I'd expect him to take a WA/WB line vs. an UTG raiser. Only a flopped set made sense, although that was of course assuming CO was a good player (and I had no read on him).

When I hit my 7 on the river, I opted for the worst possible line. I checked, intending to raise; my thinking was that if I was up against a FH with CO's 33 or 44, he might hesitate before 3-betting when I check/raise the river, as the way the hand played out it was very possible that I could hold A7s. As for UTG, I actually thought he did have an ace, but not AK, and that he'd come to the same analysis about CO's flop play as I had and was himself taking a WA/WB line. So I checked, CO bet as expected, I raised, UTG called 2, CO 3-bet, I vomited a little and called the 3-bet (again, I felt immediately after that I should have folded, as I seriously doubt anything other than a FH is 3-betting my c/r), and UTG overcalled. Results in white below:

<font color="white">
UTG has AcJs
CO has 4h4c
MHING</font>

I should also have included a bit more in my reads on this hand; as I said, this was my first hand at the table, but when I first sat down it had been 4-handed, and two of the players there were serious donks that I had good-sized samples on before (they were MP3 and Button in this hand). CO had been one of the other two players at the table then, and I'm quite sure that he'd gotten the same read on those two as I had (they're pretty hard to miss). So, in addition to the two coldcalls in front of him, CO would have been pretty confident in Button calling 2 behind him as well, and with that many players in the pot I'd have to be holding some truly worthless hole cards before I folded for 1 more SB. Given all of that, not only was it probable that he would have called two with any pocket pair, but also possible that he'd coldcall with a hand like A3/A4s.

[mtdoak]

I like a C/R and call a 3 bet. You get to squeeze two bets in from a field when your ahead. Your hope is that both aces are out there so you get paid off.

[ErrantNight]

explain why UTG calls two cold on the river again?

[meep_42]

I'd just like to add that if UTG folds to our river bet, I would consider 3-betting the CO raise.

-d