Draws Galore

[sean c]

[ QUOTE ]
you don't think there's a good chance villan is f.o.s. here and is making a move (maybe with a draw), against what he might view as a steal attempt? i think a bet on the turn here is basically a freeroll a good % of the time.

[/ QUOTE ]

What draw could villian have that would fold to a turn bet? I think you have very little fold equity here.

[@bsolute_luck]

i'd like to raise, but i don't think i could fold to a 3-bet.

[shant]

I'd just call. If he's playing well, he'll fold the hands you beat and 3-bet the hands you lose to.

[jason_t]

[ QUOTE ]

Villian has been playing very TAGish and would classify him as playing much like a typical 2+2er

[/ QUOTE ]

Call.

[W. Deranged]

[ QUOTE ]
He might be FOS, but I'm giving just a little more credence to the fact that he's called an UTG raise. Don't get me wrong, I don't hate betting the turn, it really depends on a more solid read of villan though.

[/ QUOTE ]

I agree with Brett. We should take the free card. Usually when opponents check-raise they have some kind of real hand; most players generally don't check-raise with draws. Also, in short-handed games, particularly when the pot gets heads-up, most players don't check-raise the flop with hands they intend to fold.

We three-bet the flop because we had a ton of equity with our superdraw, but one of the auxiliary effects was to give us the option, if desired, of taking a free card on the turn. We should probably do it.

[krimson]

Nice hand, call the river. Raising would be spewing imo, it's very likely he has 2-pair. If not, he is probably folding worse hands, other than specifically weaker aces, which is unlikely, so we're not getting value here that often by raising.

[W. Deranged]

I don't really like a raise here. I think if villain plays like a 2+2er he'll be able to fold to a raise with anything less than an A. A significant portion of the time he has two pair or better (either aces up or a missed turn check-raise). We don't have that great a kicker, so a river raise is only ideal against hands like A7-A2, which seem very, very unlikely based on the flop action.

[brettbrettr]

[ QUOTE ]
i'd like to raise, but i don't think i could fold to a 3-bet.

[/ QUOTE ]

OK, its a super easy fold to a three bet. But I tend to agree with everyone who says that he's not calling with anything we beat. So, I retract my earlier vote for "raise."