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#1
12-29-2005, 11:28 AM
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Re: $22: Push or wait with an uber short stack
[ QUOTE ]
[ QUOTE ] To you who are playing around with SNGPT, remember this: When SB calls SNGPT automatically assumes that BB folds, this is clearly not the case at this hand! Rather the other way around. A push here should be nowhere near neutral EV, I think I fold this. [/ QUOTE ] I really feel like SNGPT is doing people a diservice on this particular hand. To the above poster and Perg...I've thought about this "high likely hood of two callers" thing and have come to the conclusion it is nowhere near the frequency that you say. Remember, for SB to call, he has to call 1/4 of his stack, he will likely isolate a good portion of the time and BB will fold. Also, saying that BB will call 100% of the time at the 22s is absurd thinking about it. Yes, maybe he SHOULD, but many players will surely fold bottom 20-30%, even when the SB flat calls (or maybe I should say ESPECIALLY when the SB flat calls). This is a +EV push and likely to be the last one available until you make a +EV call in the BB with 57o. [/ QUOTE ] We have no specified reads on SB/BB, why not assume they understand basic pot-odds and tournament theory? Alot of clear cut answers could easily be turned around to the opposite if we give very specific reads on the opponents. While we have none here, I think you might be trying to add them to support your theory better. 
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#2
12-29-2005, 11:54 AM
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Re: $22: Push or wait with an uber short stack
[ QUOTE ]
[ QUOTE ] [ QUOTE ] To you who are playing around with SNGPT, remember this: When SB calls SNGPT automatically assumes that BB folds, this is clearly not the case at this hand! Rather the other way around. A push here should be nowhere near neutral EV, I think I fold this. [/ QUOTE ] I really feel like SNGPT is doing people a diservice on this particular hand. To the above poster and Perg...I've thought about this "high likely hood of two callers" thing and have come to the conclusion it is nowhere near the frequency that you say. Remember, for SB to call, he has to call 1/4 of his stack, he will likely isolate a good portion of the time and BB will fold. Also, saying that BB will call 100% of the time at the 22s is absurd thinking about it. Yes, maybe he SHOULD, but many players will surely fold bottom 20-30%, even when the SB flat calls (or maybe I should say ESPECIALLY when the SB flat calls). This is a +EV push and likely to be the last one available until you make a +EV call in the BB with 57o. [/ QUOTE ] We have no specified reads on SB/BB, why not assume they understand basic pot-odds and tournament theory? Alot of clear cut answers could easily be turned around to the opposite if we give very specific reads on the opponents. While we have none here, I think you might be trying to add them to support your theory better. [/ QUOTE ] Well, if you were SB and thought your Ax was good against button's raise would you flat call or RR here? I think flat calling by SB is a mistake so I dont see why we are all discussing there being two callers as though it were a common occurrence.
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#4
12-29-2005, 12:05 PM
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Re: $22: Push or wait with an uber short stack
[ QUOTE ]
I would move all-in here, it seems pretty brainless to me in all honesty. [/ QUOTE ] welcome to my world...I thought i was just "passing by" in this thread and lo and behold, 50 posts later...I'm still here defending this stupid push.
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#6
12-29-2005, 04:42 PM
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Re: $22: Push or wait with an uber short stack
I think this is a spot where your typical 2+2'er "pushbot" is susceptible to a leak in their game. I love playing against players that push crap in spots like this (J8 isn't crap, but some people go way too far here, esp. with 3-5 BB).
With J8, it's a function of BB's understanding of pot odds (and to a lesser extent, SB coupled with his understanding of your pushing range). In the 215s I'd fold, don't know how often a "typical" BB folds here in the 22s. If a BB fold isn't that uncommon here, push that shiat. I'd always push against a known tightie with a lack of pot odds understanding. And just because this hand is +cev to push, doesn't necessarily mean it's +$EV to push. You're putting at risk future opportunities here with your tourney life on the line, that has to factor in to your decision-making. On average you'll get your chips in in a better spot if you wait here - that's countered by the fact that when you do win your J8 puhs, you'll still get those same opportunities, have more FE to steal, etc., etc.
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#8
12-29-2005, 05:17 PM
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Re: $22: Push or wait with an uber short stack
[ QUOTE ]
I think this is a spot where your typical 2+2'er "pushbot" is susceptible to a leak in their game. I love playing against players that push crap in spots like this (J8 isn't crap, but some people go way too far here, esp. with 3-5 BB). With J8, it's a function of BB's understanding of pot odds (and to a lesser extent, SB coupled with his understanding of your pushing range). In the 215s I'd fold, don't know how often a "typical" BB folds here in the 22s. If a BB fold isn't that uncommon here, push that shiat. I'd always push against a known tightie with a lack of pot odds understanding. And just because this hand is +cev to push, doesn't necessarily mean it's +$EV to push. You're putting at risk future opportunities here with your tourney life on the line, that has to factor in to your decision-making. On average you'll get your chips in in a better spot if you wait here - that's countered by the fact that when you do win your J8 puhs, you'll still get those same opportunities, have more FE to steal, etc., etc. [/ QUOTE ] Well J8o is about as low as I'd go here, I wouldn't be pushing with any two that's for sure.
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#9
12-29-2005, 05:36 PM
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Re: $22: Push or wait with an uber short stack
[ QUOTE ]
[ QUOTE ] I think this is a spot where your typical 2+2'er "pushbot" is susceptible to a leak in their game. I love playing against players that push crap in spots like this (J8 isn't crap, but some people go way too far here, esp. with 3-5 BB). With J8, it's a function of BB's understanding of pot odds (and to a lesser extent, SB coupled with his understanding of your pushing range). In the 215s I'd fold, don't know how often a "typical" BB folds here in the 22s. If a BB fold isn't that uncommon here, push that shiat. I'd always push against a known tightie with a lack of pot odds understanding. And just because this hand is +cev to push, doesn't necessarily mean it's +$EV to push. You're putting at risk future opportunities here with your tourney life on the line, that has to factor in to your decision-making. On average you'll get your chips in in a better spot if you wait here - that's countered by the fact that when you do win your J8 puhs, you'll still get those same opportunities, have more FE to steal, etc., etc. [/ QUOTE ] Well J8o is about as low as I'd go here, I wouldn't be pushing with any two that's for sure. [/ QUOTE ] I'm pushing almost any 2 here. Anything with more than 35% equity verse a random hand should be pushed here. Here you have the chance to play against a random hand. That is not going to happen again in this tournament.
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#10
12-29-2005, 05:38 PM
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Re: $22: Push or wait with an uber short stack
[ QUOTE ]
[ QUOTE ] [ QUOTE ] I think this is a spot where your typical 2+2'er "pushbot" is susceptible to a leak in their game. I love playing against players that push crap in spots like this (J8 isn't crap, but some people go way too far here, esp. with 3-5 BB). With J8, it's a function of BB's understanding of pot odds (and to a lesser extent, SB coupled with his understanding of your pushing range). In the 215s I'd fold, don't know how often a "typical" BB folds here in the 22s. If a BB fold isn't that uncommon here, push that shiat. I'd always push against a known tightie with a lack of pot odds understanding. And just because this hand is +cev to push, doesn't necessarily mean it's +$EV to push. You're putting at risk future opportunities here with your tourney life on the line, that has to factor in to your decision-making. On average you'll get your chips in in a better spot if you wait here - that's countered by the fact that when you do win your J8 puhs, you'll still get those same opportunities, have more FE to steal, etc., etc. [/ QUOTE ] Well J8o is about as low as I'd go here, I wouldn't be pushing with any two that's for sure. [/ QUOTE ] I'm pushing almost any 2 here. Anything with more than 35% equity verse a random hand should be pushed here. Here you have the chance to play against a random hand. That is not going to happen again in this tournament. [/ QUOTE ] I wouldnt go that far, but J8 to me seems like plenty.
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