Strassa-esque bubble situation

[Big Limpin']

Forgive my lack of BisonBison'ing this, its working from memory.

Bubble situation. Party 100+9.

Hero (tALOT)
Donk#1 (t1500)
Donk#2 (t1500)
Donk#3 (t<100)

Well, Mr. Donk #3 allin posting his SB. I think we were at 200/400.

Hero is UTG w/ 83 (might as well be 72o). Hero PUSHES, knowing that he cannot win uncalled (as SB is allin).

I do not expect call from the Button (t1500) without AA/KK. I expect him to fold AK, and PP <KK. SB is allin. BB has posted 400 of his remaining 1500. I expect him to fold anything below JJ/AK (this is based on ICM, and the fact that its a $109).

Why this is cool is that the best hand i could have been dealt is 72o. I WANT to lose this hand to SB.


What do you think of the hand ranges i have given the villians? Too tight?

Thank, BL

[kamrann]

I think you're way off. I think you're ranges are too tight even if this was an optimal FE situation. I don't think the average $109 player will use ICM to decide whather to call, if the button sees QQ or JJ it's almost certainly going in.

But more to the point, this is far from a maximal FE situation because the SB is already allin, so if one of the other stacks finds a hand they like, they can call and only need to beat either you or the SB in order to make the money. This makes a big difference to the range of hands they can correctly call with, and by intuition will also open up the range they are willing to call with.

Also, you mention you want to lose to the SB so you keep the bubble alive. Thats fair enough, but if so you will have just shown down 83o pushing UTG, which is not going to help your FE much in the following hands should the SB survive.

I'm not sure I would even push in this spot. For sure it's far from a great opportunity.

[jcm4ccc]

[ QUOTE ]
I think you're way off. I think you're ranges are too tight even if this was an optimal FE situation. I don't think the average $109 player will use ICM to decide whather to call, if the button sees QQ or JJ it's almost certainly going in.

But more to the point, this is far from a maximal FE situation because the SB is already allin, so if one of the other stacks finds a hand they like, they can call and only need to beat either you or the SB in order to make the money. This makes a big difference to the range of hands they can correctly call with, and by intuition will also open up the range they are willing to call with.

Also, you mention you want to lose to the SB so you keep the bubble alive. Thats fair enough, but if so you will have just shown down 83o pushing UTG, which is not going to help your FE much in the following hands should the SB survive.

I'm not sure I would even push in this spot. For sure it's far from a great opportunity.

[/ QUOTE ] Yep, except for this: "they can call and only need to beat either you or the SB in order to make the money". In fact, they can get ITM even if they have the worst hand out of the three, as long as the Big Stack wins. There is only one scenario in which they lose: small stack beats Big Stack, and Big Stack beats the medium stack.

[benza13]

Forgive me if I am wrong, but wasn't Strassa talking about folding from the BB to preserve the bubble, not pushing to show down a hand like 83o and ruining your FE. Sure if someone calls you on another push they are taking a risk, but you've clearly shown the ability to push any two at this point. Its a slightly different situation, and I don't think you will be able to exploit your advantage as much with this move to make it worth it. Plus if one of the other players wakes up with a big hand or they call with something they "shouldn't" have, then you've doubled them up unnecessarily.

[durron597]

[ QUOTE ]

What do you think of the hand ranges i have given the villians? Too tight?

Thank, BL

[/ QUOTE ]

As usual, read dependant. You can't *know* they will fold AK.

[Myst]

Blinds are too big now to even try to preserve the bubble. Trust me. I learned the hard way :/

[jon462]

[ QUOTE ]
Blinds are too big now to even try to preserve the bubble. Trust me. I learned the hard way :/

[/ QUOTE ]

not nec. true.. if the shortstack is on the button instead of all in SB, then neither blind will call your push w/o AA KK a large majority of time.

To OP, this is so much easier to do when their are not medium stacks between you, esp when you are SB to shorties BB. I think in this situation there is too much risk you get called by someone thinking "well at least he'll beat shortie if he beats me" or if not - you ruin your FE and get a frustration call... when there is a player between you and shortie sometimes you just hafta fold in situations like these and pray the shortie wins.

[kamrann]

Yep, you're right of course. I misworded it/didn't think it through/spoke out of my ass... [img]/images/graemlins/wink.gif[/img]

So thinking about it properly, given this I imagine that if you were one of the medium stacks and put the big stack pusher on a very wide range or any two, then it would probably be correct to call with a fairly wide range of hands. This is just intuition, maybe I'm wrong. I can't be bothered to go through all the ICM calculations by hand though.

[curtains]

I like this play and would definitely do the same, but please understand that 72o is not the worst hand to have against a random hand.

Your calling ranges are way too tight btw, considering that they get 3rd place as long as they dont finish 3rd place when they go allin, due to having more chips than the SB. To fold QQ there as the button would be so ridiculous it's not even funny.

For you to honestly expect that the button will fold a pair of queens against you preflop is really fuzzy thinking and leads me to understand you have a pretty poor understanding of how your opponetns are playing. I'd say the chances are about 5% maximum that the button folds QQ against your allin. People do not play that tight. I've moved allin so often in these situations and been called so much more often by hands a million times weaker than QQ. Despite that I believe the push is clear +EV against any semi reasonable calling range that you could expect. The ranges you listed are not at all within reason however.

[11t]

I like it a lot, you can't lose money in the hand since the bb post is 4x the villain's short stack.

Pound those grinders into submission and win first before you are heads up.